Sensitivity of peak flow to the change of rainfall temporal pattern due to warmer climate

Fadhel, Sherien; Rico‐Ramirez, Miguel A.; Han, Dawei

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.03.041

Cited by 62 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…With developed areas more likely to have positive flood trends (Vogel et al, ), further urbanization will result in increased flood magnitudes (Shuster et al, ; Villarini et al, ), and the sensitivity of urban flood increases to temperature is likely to be higher (closer to precipitation sensitivities) than for nonurban catchments. Storm intensification will further compound this increase as more rain falls in a shorter period of time, at least for small urban catchments (Fadhel et al, ; Hettiarachchi et al, ; Wasko & Sharma, ).…”

Section: Expected Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

If Precipitation Extremes Are Increasing, Why Aren't Floods?

Sharma

Wasko

Lettenmaier

2018

Water Resources Research

367

269

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Despite evidence of increasing precipitation extremes, corresponding evidence for increases in flooding remains elusive. If anything, flood magnitudes are decreasing despite widespread claims by the climate community that if precipitation extremes increase, floods must also. In this commentary we suggest reasons why increases in extreme rainfall are not resulting in corresponding increases in flooding. Among the possible mechanisms responsible, we identify decreases in antecedent soil moisture, decreasing storm extent, and decreases in snowmelt. We argue that understanding the link between changes in precipitation and changes in flooding is a grand challenge for the hydrologic community and is deserving of increased attention.

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Section: Expected Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

If Precipitation Extremes Are Increasing, Why Aren't Floods?

Sharma

Wasko

Lettenmaier

2018

Water Resources Research

367

269

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“…Wasko and Sharma () and Fadhel et al . () found that at higher temperatures, the temporal rainfall patterns become less uniform with more intense rainfall during peak times and reduced rainfall during less intense times for hourly‐scale storms. Furthermore, Hettiarachchi et al .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change on characteristics of daily‐scale rainfall events based on nine selected GCMs under four CMIP5 RCP scenarios in Qu River basin, east China

Gao

Booij

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Climate change significantly influences characteristics of rainfall events including rainfall depth, rainfall duration, inter‐event time and temporal patterns that directly affect water resources management, flood defence and hydraulic structure design. In this study, a framework is proposed to analyse daily‐scale rainfall event characteristics based on global climate model (GCM) simulations. This framework includes bias correction of raw GCM‐simulated rainfall series, selection of good‐performing bias‐corrected GCMs based on the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and evaluation of selected GCMs' skills in simulating rainfall event characteristics and finally assessment of changes in rainfall event characteristics in the future. In this study, 17 GCMs, four representative concentration pathways (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) and two future periods (i.e., 2041–2070 and 2071–2100) are considered. After bias correction of the GCMs using the monthly‐scale double gamma distribution, 9 out of 17 GCMs with MAPE values smaller than 20% in the historical period 1971–2000 are selected. In general, these selected GCMs well capture the rainfall characteristics of different rainfall event classes. The multi‐model ensembles suggest that compared to the historical period, the frequency of rainfall events with an extreme depth, short duration and long inter‐event time will increase in the two future periods and the change in 2071–2100 is generally larger than that in 2041–2070, indicating that more extreme climate conditions may occur in Qu River basin in the future. Moreover, the temporal patterns of heavy rainfall events will become more non‐uniform with more concentrated peak rainfall. The frequency of the delayed rainfall type (i.e., peaks occurring at the end of the rainfall event) will increase in the future, which can probably cause more severe floods and is very detrimental to flood defence in this study area.

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“…Farmers' perceptions of climate change are also relevant as they are related to their farming decisions and practice [60]. Statements related to these phenomena identified from the literature [61][62][63][64][65][66][67][68][69] were used to evaluate farmers' agreement or disagreement using a Likert-type scale ranging from one to nine, where one corresponds to absolute disagreement and nine corresponds to absolute agreement with the statement. The proposed statements allow an assessment of farmers' opinions on issues such as the instability of meteorological factors and events related to climatic conditions.…”

Section: Farmers' Perceptions Of Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Is Technical Efficiency Affected by Farmers’ Preference for Mitigation and Adaptation Actions against Climate Change? A Case Study in Northwest Mexico

2019

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Climate change has adverse effects on agriculture, decreasing crop quality and productivity. This makes it necessary to implement adaptation and mitigation strategies that contribute to the maintenance of technical efficiency (TE). This study analyzed the relationship of TE with farmers’ mitigation and adaptation action preferences, their risk and environmental attitudes, and their perception of climate change. Through the stochastic frontier method, TE levels were estimated for 370 farmers in Northwest Mexico. The results showed the average efficiency levels (57%) for three identified groups of farmers: High TE (15% of farmers), average TE (72%), and low TE (13%). Our results showed a relationship between two of the preferred adaptation actions against climate change estimated using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method. The most efficient farmers preferred “change crops,” while less efficient farmers preferred “invest in irrigation infrastructure.” The anthropocentric environmental attitude inferred from the New Ecological Paradigm (NEP) scale was related to the level of TE. Efficient farmers were those with an anthropocentric environmental attitude, compared to less efficient farmers, who exhibited an ecocentric attitude. The climate change issues were more perceived by moderately efficient farmers. These findings set out a roadmap for policy-makers to face climate change at the regional level.

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Sensitivity of peak flow to the change of rainfall temporal pattern due to warmer climate

Cited by 62 publications

References 26 publications

If Precipitation Extremes Are Increasing, Why Aren't Floods?

If Precipitation Extremes Are Increasing, Why Aren't Floods?

Impacts of climate change on characteristics of daily‐scale rainfall events based on nine selected GCMs under four CMIP5 RCP scenarios in Qu River basin, east China

Is Technical Efficiency Affected by Farmers’ Preference for Mitigation and Adaptation Actions against Climate Change? A Case Study in Northwest Mexico

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