Sensitivity of movement and intensity of severe cyclone AILA to the physical processes

Abstract

Accurate prediction of movement and intensity of tropical cyclone is still most challenging problem in numerical weather prediction. The positive progress in this field can be achieved by providing network of observations in the storm region and best representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model. In the present study later part was attempted to investigate the sensitivity of movement and intensity of the severe cyclonic storm AILA to different physical processes in the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Three sets of experiments were conducted for convection, microphysics (MP) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes. Model-simulated fields like minimum central surface pressure, maximum surface wind, track and vector displacement error are considered to test the sensitivity. The results indicate that the movement of the system is more sensitive to the cumulus physics and the intensity of the cyclone is sensitive to both PBL and cumulus physics. The combination of Betts Miller Janjic (BMJ) for convection, Yonsei University (YSU) for PBL and Purdue Lin (LIN) for microphysics is found to perform better than other combination schemes. The horizontal and vertical features of the system along with its special features like complete northward movement of the system throughout the travel period and the consistent cyclonic storm intensity until 15 hrs after the landfall could be well simulated by the model.

Sensitivity of a Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclone to Physical Parameterizations

“…There was a significant sensitivity of different aspects of the simulated medicane to the physical parameterizations. Different studies on tropical cyclones have pointed out the importance of physics parameterizations for a proper simulation [24][25][26][27]30]. This result agrees with Miglietta et al [31], who investigated the influence of physics parameterizations on the simulation of the medicane of 26 September 2006 over southern Italy.…”

Influence of physics parameterization schemes on the simulation of a tropical-like cyclone in the Mediterranean Sea

“…Previous studies on tropical cyclones demonstrate that the sensitivity to PBL schemes is significant for the intensification of the storm (Braun and Tao, 2000), although weaker with respect to microphysics (Li and Pu, 2008), and relatively weak in terms of spread of the trajectories (e.g. ; Rao and Prasad, 2007;Pattanayak et al, 2012;Rambabu et al, 2013). The weak sensitivity reported here is probably a consequence of the relatively minor importance of the sea surface fluxes in the short-range experiments discussed in the present study.…”

Determining the sensitive parameters of WRF model for the prediction of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal using Global Sensitivity Analysis and Machine Learning

“…Many researchers have studied the sensitivity of physics schemes in simulating tropical cyclones over the BoB and invariably reported the performance of different combinations of physics schemes by comparing the tracks and intensities of cyclones (Pattanayak et al, 2012;Osuri et al, 2012;Rambabu et al, 2013;Kanase and Salvekar, 2015;Chandrasekar and Balaji, 2016;Sandeep et al, 2018;Venkata Rao et al, 2020;Mahala et al, 2021;Singh et al, 2021b;Messmer et al, 2021). However, systematic studies on parameter sensitivity, to determine their optimal values is yet to be explored for tropical cyclones over the BoB region.…”