Sensitivity of Microphysical Schemes on the Simulation of Post-Monsoon Tropical Cyclones over the North Indian Ocean

Abstract

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are the most disastrous natural weather phenomenon, that have a significant impact on the socioeconomic development of the country. In the past two decades, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models (e.g., Advanced Research WRF (ARW)) have been used for the prediction of TCs. Extensive studies were carried out on the prediction of TCs using the ARW model. However, these studies are limited to a single cyclone with varying physics schemes, or single physics schemes to more than one cyclone. Hence, there is a need to compare different physics schemes on multiple TCs to understand their effectiveness. In the present study, a total of 56 sensitivity experiments are conducted to investigate the impact of seven microphysical parameterization schemes on eight post-monsoon TCs formed over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) using the ARW model. The performance of the Ferrier, Lin, Morrison, Thompson, WSM3, WSM5, and WSM6 are evaluated using error metrics, namely Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Square Error (MSE), Skill Score (SS), and average track error. The results are compared with Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) observations. From the sensitivity experiments, it is observed that the WSM3 scheme simulated the cyclones Nilofar, Kyant, Daye, and Phethai well, whereas the cyclones Hudhud, Titli, and Ockhi are best simulated by WSM6. The present study suggests that the WSM3 scheme can be used as the first best scheme for the prediction of post-monsoon tropical cyclones over the NIO.

Understanding the characteristics of microphysical processes in the rapid intensity changes of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal

“…The model's MP processes are simulated using the WRF single‐moment six‐class (WSM6) scheme. It is relatively better for TC intensity simulations (Maw and Min, 2017; Mohan et al ., 2019; Venkata Rao et al ., 2020; Nekkali et al ., 2022) and is also used in the operational model at IMD for the NIO basin. The model has 51 vertical levels in the atmosphere, and the top of the atmosphere is set to 50 hPa.…”

Determining the sensitive parameters of WRF model for the prediction of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal using Global Sensitivity Analysis and Machine Learning

“…Many researchers have studied the sensitivity of physics schemes in simulating tropical cyclones over the BoB and invariably reported the performance of different combinations of physics schemes by comparing the tracks and intensities of cyclones (Pattanayak et al, 2012;Osuri et al, 2012;Rambabu et al, 2013;Kanase and Salvekar, 2015;Chandrasekar and Balaji, 2016;Sandeep et al, 2018;Venkata Rao et al, 2020;Mahala et al, 2021;Singh et al, 2021b;Messmer et al, 2021). However, systematic studies on parameter sensitivity, to determine their optimal values is yet to be explored for tropical cyclones over the BoB region.…”

Reply on RC1

“…Many researchers have studied the sensitivity of physics schemes in simulating tropical cyclones over the BoB and invariably reported the performance of different combinations of physics schemes by comparing the tracks and intensities of cyclones (Pattanayak et al, 2012;Osuri et al, 2012;Rambabu et al, 2013;Kanase and Salvekar, 2015;Chandrasekar and Balaji, 2016;Sandeep et al, 2018;Venkata Rao et al, 2020;Mahala et al, 2021;Singh et al, 2021b;Messmer et al, 2021). However, systematic studies on parameter sensitivity, to determine their optimal values is yet to be explored for tropical cyclones over the BoB region.…”