Sensitivity of Iodine-Mediated Stratospheric Ozone Loss Chemistry to Future Chemistry-Climate Scenarios

Klobas, J. Eric; Hansen, J J; Weisenstein, Debra K.; Kennedy, R.P.; Wilmouth, D. M.

doi:10.3389/feart.2021.617586

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 35 publications

(64 reference statements)

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“…Also, the further increase of sea surface temperature due to global warming, near-surface ozone, and sea surface iodide concentrations could be the reason for the intensification of iodine emissions in the future making the atmospheric amount of iodine to be vastly higher (Cuevas et al, 2018;Legrand et al, 2018;Cuevas et al, 2018;Koenig et al, 2020;Iglesias-Suarez et al, 2020;Carpenter et al, 2021). The effectiveness of iodine for ozone destruction is found to be stable in future warming scenarios and therefore its relative importance increases relative to the other halogens (Klobas et al, 2021).…”

Section: 4mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While the future surface ozone evolution has a large spread in model projections over the 21 st century (Archibald et al, 2020) resulting in a large uncertainty in future iodine emissions, the continuous increase in surface temperatures is predicted to raise tropospheric iodine levels throughout the 21 st century based on Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (Iglesias-Suarez et al, 2020). Klobas et al (2021) showed that in future scenarios the effectiveness of iodine for ozone depletion is poorly sensitive to changes in the state of the stratosphere indicating an increase of relative importance of iodine over other halogens. Solomon et al (1994) presented one of the first studies demonstrating the potential role of iodine chemistry in stratospheric ozone loss using a two-dimensional model of atmospheric chemistry and dynamics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Iodine chemistry in the chemistry-climate model SOCOL-AERv2-iodine

Karagodin‐Doyennel¹,

Rozanov²,

Sukhodolov³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. This paper introduces a new version of the chemistry-climate model SOCOL-AERv2, supplemented by an iodine chemistry module. We conducted three twenty-year-long ensemble experiments to assess the validity of modeled iodine and to quantify the effects of iodine on ozone. The obtained iodine distributions with SOCOL-AERv2-iodine show good agreement with the CAM-chem model simulations and AMAX-DOAS observations. For the present-day atmosphere, the model suggests the strongest influence of iodine in the lower stratosphere with an ozone loss of up to 30 ppbv at low latitudes and up to 100 ppbv at high latitudes. Globally averaged, the model suggests iodine-induced chemistry to result in an ozone column reduction of 3–4 %, maximizing at high latitudes. In the troposphere, iodine chemistry lowers tropospheric ozone concentrations by 5–10 % depending on the geographical location. We also determined the sensitivity of ozone to iodine applying a 2-fold increase of iodine emissions, which reduces the ozone column globally by an additional 1.5–2.5 %. We found that in the lower troposphere, the share of ozone loss induced by iodine originating from inorganic sources is 75 % and 25 % by iodine originating from organic sources, and contributions become similar at about 50 hPa. These results constrain the importance of atmospheric iodine chemistry for present and future conditions, even though uncertainties remain high due to the paucity of observational data of iodine species.

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Section: 4mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Iodine chemistry in the chemistry-climate model SOCOL-AERv2-iodine

Karagodin‐Doyennel¹,

Rozanov²,

Sukhodolov³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…Recent work suggested that iodine plays a more significant role than previously believed in stratospheric ozone chemistry and, moreover, that iodine is approximately 400-1000 times more effective at destroying ozone than stratospheric chlorine in the lower stratosphere. In the future, the share of halogen-induced ozone loss in the stratosphere due to reactions of iodine will likely be greater than it is today [7,8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Kinetics of the Reactions of Ozone with Halogen Atoms in the Stratosphere

2021

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It is well established that reaction cycles involving inorganic halogens contribute to the depletion of ozone in the atmosphere. Here, the kinetics of O3 with halogen atoms (Cl, Br, and I) were investigated between 180 and 400 K, expanding the temperature range relative to prior studies. Canonical variational transition state theory including small curvature tunneling correction (CVT/SCT) were considered, following the construction of the potential energy surfaces. MRCI + Q/aug-ano-pVTZ//MP2/aug-cc-pV(T + d)Z and MRCI + Q/aug-ano-RCC-VTZP//MP2/aug-cc-pV(T + d)Z levels of theory were used to calculate the kinetic parameters. Calculated rate coefficients were used to fit the Arrhenius equations, which are obtained to be k1 = (3.48 ± 0.4) × 10−11 exp[(−301 ± 64)/T] cm3 molecule−1 s−1, k2 = (3.54 ± 0.2) × 10−11 exp[(−990 ± 35)/T] cm3 molecule−1 s−1 and k3 = (1.47 ± 0.1) × 10−11 exp[(−720 ± 42)/T] cm3 molecule−1 s−1 for the reactions of O3 with Cl, Br, and I atoms, respectively. The obtained rate coefficients for the reactions of O3 with halogen atoms using CVT/SCT are compared to the latest recommended rate coefficients by the NASA/JPL and IUPAC evaluations. The reactivity trends and pathways of these reactions are discussed.

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“…https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01671-y (~130 times larger than chlorine in the extra-polar stratosphere 35 ). The influence of anthropogenic VSL-Cl 27 and natural VSL-Br 36 on the total stratospheric ozone column has been previously described, although a comprehensive understanding of the chemical influence of VSLS on the LS ozone evolution has not been reached yet.…”

Section: Articlementioning

confidence: 99%

Very short-lived halogens amplify ozone depletion trends in the tropical lower stratosphere

et al. 2023

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In contrast to the general stratospheric ozone recovery following international agreements, recent observations show an ongoing net ozone depletion in the tropical lower stratosphere (LS). This depletion is thought to be driven by dynamical transport accelerated by global warming, while chemical processes have been considered to be unimportant. Here we use a chemistry–climate model to demonstrate that halogenated ozone-depleting very short-lived substances (VSLS) chemistry may account for around a quarter of the observed tropical LS negative ozone trend in 1998–2018. VSLS sources include both natural and anthropogenic emissions. Future projections show the persistence of the currently unaccounted for contribution of VSLS to ozone loss throughout the twenty-first century in the tropical LS, the only region of the global stratosphere not projecting an ozone recovery by 2100. Our results show the need for mitigation strategies of anthropogenic VSLS emissions to preserve the present and future ozone layer in low latitudes.

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Sensitivity of Iodine-Mediated Stratospheric Ozone Loss Chemistry to Future Chemistry-Climate Scenarios

Cited by 6 publications

References 35 publications

Iodine chemistry in the chemistry-climate model SOCOL-AERv2-iodine

Iodine chemistry in the chemistry-climate model SOCOL-AERv2-iodine

Kinetics of the Reactions of Ozone with Halogen Atoms in the Stratosphere

Very short-lived halogens amplify ozone depletion trends in the tropical lower stratosphere

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