Sensitivity of high-resolution Arctic regional climate model projections to different implementations of land surface processes

Matthes, Heidrun; Rinke, Annette; Miller, Paul A.; Kuhry, Peter; Dethloff, Klaus; Wolf, Annett

doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0138-1

Cited by 17 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…5, 6; Table 1). The winter albedo decline of 1.75 % averaged over the study domain is, as expected, more marked, and may be compared with an average albedo reduction of 6 % estimated for the Barents Sea Region under an SRES-B2 future climate scenario by Wolf et al (2008a), or a 5 % decline (May) when present-day vegetation fields in the HIRHAM regional climate model were replaced by LPJ-GUESS-simulated forest cover under an A1B future climate scenario (Matthes et al 2012). Locally, the computed winter albedo changes in our study ranged down to -10 to 30 % (Figs.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 54%

“…At high latitudes, feedbacks resulting from changes in albedo (reflectance of incoming solar radiation) associated with shrub expansion and treeline advance have received particular attention. A number of climate model-based studies have concluded that the decline in albedo resulting from the masking of snow by protruding trees and tall shrubs could amplify warming in affected areas to a degree comparable seasonally with the direct anthropogenic forcing of climate (Betts 2000;Claussen et al 2001;Göttel et al 2008;Wramneby et al 2010;Matthes et al 2012Bonfils et al 2012. Additional feedback mechanisms involving the effects of ecosystem changes on evapotranspiration and carbon balance are in general predicted to further amplify warming (Swann et al 2010;Koven et al 2011, Bonfils et al 2012.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modelling Tundra Vegetation Response to Recent Arctic Warming

Miller

Smith

2012

AMBIO

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The Arctic land area has warmed by [1°C in the last 30 years and there is evidence that this has led to increased productivity and stature of tundra vegetation and reduced albedo, effecting a positive (amplifying) feedback to climate warming. We applied an individual-based dynamic vegetation model over the Arctic forced by observed climate and atmospheric CO 2 for 1980-2006. Averaged over the study area, the model simulated increases in primary production and leaf area index, and an increasing representation of shrubs and trees in vegetation. The main underlying mechanism was a warming-driven increase in growing season length, enhancing the production of shrubs and trees to the detriment of shaded ground-level vegetation. The simulated vegetation changes were estimated to correspond to a 1.75 % decline in snow-season albedo. Implications for modelling future climate impacts on Arctic ecosystems and for the incorporation of biogeophysical feedback mechanisms in Arctic system models are discussed.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 54%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling Tundra Vegetation Response to Recent Arctic Warming

Miller

Smith

2012

AMBIO

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“…We argue that the larger differences in summer are at least partly due to the fact that energy exchanges between soil and atmosphere play a significant role in summer, while they are inhibited by snow cover in winter (Kim, Ray, & Choi, ). These fluxes can affect the baroclinicity and thus cyclone development and atmospheric circulation due to the dynamical impact of the atmosphere‐land coupling (Matthes et al, , ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends of Cyclone Characteristics in the Arctic and Their Patterns From Different Reanalysis Data

Zahn¹,

Akperov

Rinke

et al. 2018

JGR Atmospheres

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Cyclones in the Arctic are detected and tracked in four different reanalysis data sets from 1981 to 2010. In great detail the spatial and seasonal patterns of changes are scrutinized with regards to their frequencies, depths, and sizes. We find common spatial patterns for their occurrences, with centers of main activity over the seas in winter, and more activity over land and over the North Pole in summer. The deep cyclones are more frequent in winter, and the number of weak cyclones peaks in summer. Overall, we find a good agreement of our tracking results across the different reanalyses. Regarding the frequency changes, we find strong decreases in the Barents Sea and along the Russian coast toward the North Pole and increases over most of the central Arctic Ocean and toward the Pacific in winter. Areas of increasing and decreasing frequencies are of similar size in winter. In summer there is a longish region of increase from the Laptev Sea toward Greenland, over the Canadian archipelago, and over some smaller regions west of Novaya Zemlya and over the Russia. The larger part of the Arctic experiences a frequency decrease. All the summer changes are found statistically unrelated to the winter patterns. In addition, the frequency changes are found unrelated to changes in cyclone depth and size. There is generally good agreement across the different reanalyses in the spatial patterns of the trend sign. However, the magnitudes of changes in a particular region may strongly differ across the data.

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“…Studies with other global ESMs have reported comparable nearsurface temperature increases due to vegetation-mediated feedbacks of around 0.0028 • C yr −1 from the 1870s to the 2080s for the NHLs as a whole (Falloon et al, 2012). Using an iterative coupling approach, Matthes et al (2011) investigated the sensitivity of projected regional climate change to vegetation shifts imposed on the land-surface conditions in a regional climate model (HIRHAM) applied across the Arctic. They found that woody vegetation expansion under an SRES A1B emission scenario led to a change in temperature by 3 • C in winter and −1.5 • C in summer.…”

Section: Impacts Of Biogeophysical Feedbacks For Futurementioning

confidence: 99%

Biogeophysical feedbacks enhance the Arctic terrestrial carbon sink in regional Earth system dynamics

et al. 2014

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Abstract. Continued warming of the Arctic will likely accelerate terrestrial carbon (C) cycling by increasing both uptake and release of C. Yet, there are still large uncertainties in modelling Arctic terrestrial ecosystems as a source or sink of C. Most modelling studies assessing or projecting the future fate of C exchange with the atmosphere are based on either stand-alone process-based models or coupled climate-C cycle general circulation models, and often disregard biogeophysical feedbacks of land-surface changes to the atmosphere. To understand how biogeophysical feedbacks might impact on both climate and the C budget in Arctic terrestrial ecosystems, we apply the regional Earth system model RCA-GUESS over the CORDEX-Arctic domain. The model is forced with lateral boundary conditions from an EC-Earth CMIP5 climate projection under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. We perform two simulations, with or without interactive vegetation dynamics respectively, to assess the impacts of biogeophysical feedbacks. Both simulations indicate that Arctic terrestrial ecosystems will continue to sequester C with an increased uptake rate until the 2060-2070s, after which the C budget will return to a weak C sink as increased soil respiration and biomass burning outpaces increased net primary productivity. The additional C sinks arising from biogeophysical feedbacks are approximately 8.5 Gt C, accounting for 22 % of the total C sinks, of which 83.5 % are located in areas of extant Arctic tundra. Two opposing feedback mechanisms, mediated by albedo and evapotranspiration changes respectively, contribute to this response. The albedo feedback dominates in the winter and spring seasons, amplifying the near-surface warming by up to 1.35 • C in spring, while the evapotranspiration feedback dominates in the summer months, and leads to a cooling of up to 0.81 • C. Such feedbacks stimulate vegetation growth due to an earlier onset of the growing season, leading to compositional changes in woody plants and vegetation redistribution.

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Sensitivity of high-resolution Arctic regional climate model projections to different implementations of land surface processes

Cited by 17 publications

References 27 publications

Modelling Tundra Vegetation Response to Recent Arctic Warming

Modelling Tundra Vegetation Response to Recent Arctic Warming

Trends of Cyclone Characteristics in the Arctic and Their Patterns From Different Reanalysis Data

Biogeophysical feedbacks enhance the Arctic terrestrial carbon sink in regional Earth system dynamics

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