Sensitivity of growth of Scots pine, Norway spruce and silver birch to climate change and forest management in boreal conditions

Briceño-Elizondo, Elemer; García-Gonzalo, Jordi; Peltola, Heli; Matala, Juho; Kellomäki, Seppo

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2006.05.062

Cited by 118 publications

(81 citation statements)

References 44 publications

(47 reference statements)

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“…Populations located in the northern subtropical and mid-subtropical humid areas may experience greater precipitation and temperature under climate change [74]; this situation was predicted in our study as we concluded that Bio12 (annual precipitation) and Bio1 (annual mean air temperature) were the major bioclimatic variables contributing to the potential suitable habitat geographic distribution areas. Results consistent with previous studies indicate that trees located on the southern edge of their distributional range are expected to display growth declines, while increased growth is anticipated for those on the northern edge [19,64,[75][76][77].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

“…Thus, intraspecific variation and local adaptation is not generally considered when assessing species responses to climate change [15,16]. By treating populations within a widespread species as an undifferentiated collection of individuals, differences in many physiological, ecological, and growth attributes are discounted and the assessment of climate change effects may result in a false net positive impact on forest productivity (herein considered only as area-base suitable habitat) [17][18][19]. However, among-population variation resulting from climate-related natural selection and local adaptation is widely observed along climatic gradients [20,21].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Predicting Future Seed Sourcing of Platycladus orientalis (L.) for Future Climates Using Climate Niche Models

Wang

Liu

et al. 2017

Forests

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Climate niche modeling has been widely used to assess the impact of climate change on forest trees at the species level. However, geographically divergent tree populations are expected to respond differently to climate change. Considering intraspecific local adaptation in modeling species responses to climate change will thus improve the credibility and usefulness of climate niche models, particularly for genetic resources management. In this study, we used five Platycladus orientalis (L.) seed zones (Northwestern; Northern; Central; Southern; and Subtropical) covering the entire species range in China. A climate niche model was developed and used to project the suitable climatic conditions for each of the five seed zones for current and various future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). Our results indicated that the Subtropical seed zone would show consistent reduction for all climate change scenarios. The remaining seed zones, however, would experience various degrees of expansion in suitable habitat relative to their current geographic distributions. Most of the seed zones would gain suitable habitats at their northern distribution margins and higher latitudes. Thus, we recommend adjusting the current forest management strategies to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting Future Seed Sourcing of Platycladus orientalis (L.) for Future Climates Using Climate Niche Models

Wang

Liu

et al. 2017

Forests

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“…Varjo 1977, Solantie 1998) The calculations were made using the ecosystem model developed by Kellomäki and Väisänen (1997) in which the selected weather and soil factors control the dynamics of forests. The model has been validated in several previous studies (Kellomäki and Väisänen 1997, Matala et al 2003, 2005, Briceno-Elizondo et al 2006. They show a high capacity of the model to simulate, in an acceptable way, the growth and development and the hydrological and thermal conditions in the forest soils typical for the Finnish forests (Venäläinen et al 2001a, Laurén et al 2005.…”

Section: Soil Frostmentioning

confidence: 89%

Model computations on the climate change effects on snow cover, soil moisture and soil frost in the boreal conditions over Finland

Kellomäki¹,

Maajärvi²,

Strandman³

et al. 2010

Silva Fenn.

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This study considered how climate change affects the accumulation of snow, the soil moisture and soil frost at sites without tree cover in boreal conditions in Finland (60°-70°N). An increase of 4.5 °C in annual mean temperature and 20 % in annual precipitation were assumed for Finland by the year 2100 according to A2 emission scenario. Along with climate, the soil type of the permanent inventory plots of the Finnish National Forest Inventory was used. Soil and climate data were combined by using a process-based ecosystem model. Calculations were done for four periods: current climate , near future (2001-2020), mid-term future (2021-2050) and long-term future (2071-2100). According to our simulations, the average monthly duration and depth of snow decreased over the simulation period. However, the increasing precipitation may locally increase the snow depths in the mid-term calculations. In the autumn and winter, the average volumetric soil moisture content slightly increased in southern Finland during the near future, but decreased towards the end of the century, but still remained on a higher level than presently. In northern Finland, the soil moisture in the autumn and winter increased by the end of this century. In the summertime soil moisture decreased slightly regardless of the region. Throughout Finland, the length and the depth of soil frost decreased by the end of the century. In the south, the reduction in the depth was largest in the autumn and spring, while in the mid-winter it remained relatively deep in the middle of the century. In the north, the depth tended to increase during the first two calculation periods, in some areas, even during the third calculation period (2071-2100) due to reduced insulation effects of snow during cold spells. The wintertime increase in soil moisture and reduced soil frost may be reflected to reduced carrying capacity of soil for timber harvesting.

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“…According to recent modeling work the three dominant tree species in Finland (Picea abies L., Pinus sylvestris L. and Betula pendula Roth) should respond positively to warmer growing season temperatures (Briceño-Elizondo et al 2006). Results from long term provenance trials on the other hand, indicate that a short transfer of approximately 2° latitude (~200 km) north increases volume, whereas southward transfers often lead to a decrease in performance (Johnsson 1976, Stener 1997, Viherä-Aarnio and Velling 2008.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

From the Arctic Circle to the Canadian prairies – a case study of silver birch acclimation capacity

Rousi¹,

Possen²,

Hagqvist³

et al. 2012

Silva Fenn.

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. 2012. From the Arctic Circle to the Canadian prairies -a case study of silver birch acclimation capacity. Silva Fennica 46(3): 355-364.Earlier provenance research has indicated poor success even in short distance transfers (> 2-3° latitude) of silver birch (Betula pendula Roth) southward from their origin. These results may indicate poor adaptability of silver birch to a warming climate. Some of the scenarios for a warming climate in Finland suggest effective heat sums are likely to double in the north and increase 1.5 fold in the south for the period of 2070-2099. Consequently, the outlook for silver birch appears bleak. To study the acclimation of birch to this projected change we established a provenance trial in northeastern Alberta, Canada, at the temperature area currently predicted for Central Finland (lat. 64-66°N) at the turn of this century (1400 dd). Our 10-year experiment showed that all the Finnish provenances (origins 61-67°N) have acclimated well to the warmer growth conditions experienced in Alberta at 54°N. These results suggest that silver birch has the potential to acclimate to thermal conditions predicted for Finland at the end of the 21st century. Our results also indicate that silver birch has the potential as a plantation species in Canada, where the Finnish birch grew faster in the boreal forest region of Canada than local paper birch (Betula papyrifera Marsh.) provenances.

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Sensitivity of growth of Scots pine, Norway spruce and silver birch to climate change and forest management in boreal conditions

Cited by 118 publications

References 44 publications

Predicting Future Seed Sourcing of Platycladus orientalis (L.) for Future Climates Using Climate Niche Models

Predicting Future Seed Sourcing of Platycladus orientalis (L.) for Future Climates Using Climate Niche Models

Model computations on the climate change effects on snow cover, soil moisture and soil frost in the boreal conditions over Finland

From the Arctic Circle to the Canadian prairies – a case study of silver birch acclimation capacity

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