Sensitivity of Grassland Coverage to Climate across Environmental Gradients on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Abstract

Grassland cover is strongly influenced by climate change. The response of grassland cover to climate change becomes complex with background climate. There have been some advances in research on the sensitivity of grassland vegetation to climate change around the world, but the differences in climate sensitivity among grassland types are still unclear in alpine grassland. Therefore, we applied MODIS NDVI data and trend analysis methods to quantify the spatial and temporal variation of grassland vegetation cover on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Then, we used multiple regression models to analyze the sensitivity of fractional vegetation cover (FVC) to climatic factors (Temperature, Precipitation, Solar radiation, Palmer drought severity index) and summarized the potential mechanisms of vegetation sensitivity to different climatic gradients. Our results showed (1) a significant increasing trend in alpine desert FVC from 2000–2018 (1.12 × 10−3/a, R2 = 0.56, p < 0.001) but no significant trend in other grassland types. (2) FVC sensitivity to climatic factors varied among grassland types, especially in the alpine desert, which had over 60% of the area with positive sensitivity to temperature, precipitation and PDSI. (3) The sensitivity of grassland FVC to heat factors decreases with rising ambient temperature while the sensitivity to moisture increases. Similarly, the sensitivity to moisture decreases while the sensitivity to thermal factors increases along the moisture gradient. Furthermore, the results suggest that future climate warming will promote grassland in cold and wet areas of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and may suppress vegetation in warmer areas. In contrast, the response of the alpine desert to future climate is more stable. Studying the impact of climate variation at a regional scale could enhance the adaptability of vegetation in future global climates.