Sensitivity of forecast errors to initial conditions

Rabier, Florence; Klinker, E.; Courtier, Philippe; Hollingsworth, A.

doi:10.1002/qj.49712252906

Cited by 292 publications

(170 citation statements)

References 25 publications

(1 reference statement)

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“…A short summary of the adjoint sensitivity technique is given here. For a more detailed introduction, see (Rabier et al, 1996). The forecast error can be quantified by means of the diagnostic function (or cost function)…”

Section: Adjoint Sensitivity Of Forecast Error To Initial Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Performance of the ECMWF forecasting system in the Arctic during winter

Jung

Leutbecher

2007

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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ABSTRACT:The performance of the ECMWF forecasting system in the Arctic during boreal winter is investigated. A comparison between different analysis products suggests that synoptic-scale features in the Arctic are relatively well represented by state-of-the-art analysis systems. Furthermore, it is shown that the improvement in deterministic forecast error in the Arctic since the early 1980s closely follows that reported in previous studies for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole. One of the biggest 'jumps' in deterministic forecast skill, both in the troposphere and in the stratosphere, occurred in autumn 2000 when the high-resolution deterministic system (T L 511, about 40 km) was introduced at ECMWF. Our results suggest that 10-day forecasts of the stratospheric circulation have been very skilful, particularly since the introduction of the high-resolution system. Adjoint computations reveal pronounced flow-dependence of the sensitivity of short-range forecast error to initial perturbations at high northern latitudes (north of 70°N); this highlights the importance of using ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) for weather forecasting in the Arctic. Verification of the ECMWF EPS in the Arctic reveals substantial improvements in probabilistic predictive skill since the mid-1990s. The most pronounced increase in probabilistic forecast skill, particularly on synoptic scales, occurred in autumn 2000 when the high-resolution EPS (T L 255, about 80 km) was introduced. Finally, it is shown that the observed stratosphere-troposphere link ('downward propagation' of stratospheric anomalies), which constitutes a potential source of extended-range predictability in high latitudes, is realistically represented in seasonal integrations with the ECMWF model -even at the relatively low horizontal resolution of T L 95 (about 180 km).

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Section: Adjoint Sensitivity Of Forecast Error To Initial Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Performance of the ECMWF forecasting system in the Arctic during winter

Jung

Leutbecher

2007

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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“…In the present study, the error in model forecast UTH follows similar pattern as observed in UTH derived from NCEP analysis. The impact of uncertainties in initial conditions on NWP model forecast is discussed by Rabier et al (1996). The effect of departure in NCEP analysis-derived UTH (Figure 3) are reflected in the subsequent WRF model forecast for all simulation periods ( Figure 6).…”

Section: Forecast Comparisonmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of upper tropospheric humidity from NCEP analysis and WRF Model Forecast with Kalpana observation during Indian summer monsoon 2010

Kumar¹,

Shukla²,

Thapliyal³

et al. 2012

Meteorological Applications

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This paper presents an evaluation of upper tropospheric humidity (UTH) fields from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) analysis and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model forecast with satellite derived UTH. For this purpose, UTH (weighted average of relative humidity in 200-500 hPa layer) obtained from Indian geostationary satellite Kalpana is compared with the UTH computed from NCEP analysis and WRF model forecast during the summer monsoon, 2010. Kaplana-derived products are not included in the NCEP analysis: therefore, a comparison of the two independent datasets is promising. This study indicates that UTH derived from different sources (Kalpana UTH, NCEP Analysed and subsequent model forecasted UTH) matches very well over the Indian region. However, there are region-specific small departures in UTH which increases the model predicted UTH.

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“…Lorenz 1963;Rabier et al 1996) and model formulation (e.g. Buizza et al 1999), and this sensitivity depends on the actual flow (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%