Sensitivity of Building Loss Estimates to Major Uncertain Variables

Porter, Keith; Beck, James L.; Shaikhutdinov, Rustem V.

doi:10.1193/1.1516201

Cited by 233 publications

(165 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…In order to introduce the PDF of ratio of equivalent viscous damping ( ), here the work of Porter et al [34] is used, in which the authors have compiled the results of some researches aimed at estimation of ξ for different kinds of structures. Porter et al concluded that a reasonable value for coefficient of variation (C.O.V) for this parameter should be between 0.3 and 0.4.…”

Section: Parameters Of the Structural Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Evaluation of Seismic Performance for a Steel Moment Frame Using Damage Indices

Asgarian¹,

Ordoubadi²

2017

Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Computational Methods in Structural Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering (COM

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Section: Parameters Of the Structural Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Evaluation of Seismic Performance for a Steel Moment Frame Using Damage Indices

Asgarian¹,

Ordoubadi²

2017

Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Computational Methods in Structural Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering (COM

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“…They added the capability of resolving contradictions between experts' opinions. The sensitivity of seismic loss estimation methods to input variables and criteria was investigated by (Porter, Beck, & Shaikhutdinov, 2002). Aghamohammadi et al (2013) assessed the human seismic vulnerability of urban areas which is the estimation of number of humans may die in an earthquake.…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Novel Approach to Support Majority Voting in Spatial Group McDm Using Density Induced Owa Operator for Seismic Vulnerability Assessment

Moradi

Delavar

Moshiri

et al. 2014

Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci.

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ABSTRACT:Being one of the most frightening disasters, earthquakes frequently cause huge damages to buildings, facilities and human beings. Although the prediction of characteristics of an earthquake seems to be impossible, its loss and damage is predictable in advance. Seismic loss estimation models tend to evaluate the extent to which the urban areas are vulnerable to earthquakes. Many factors contribute to the vulnerability of urban areas against earthquakes including age and height of buildings, the quality of the materials, the density of population and the location of flammable facilities. Therefore, seismic vulnerability assessment is a multi-criteria problem. A number of multi criteria decision making models have been proposed based on a single expert. The main objective of this paper is to propose a model which facilitates group multi criteria decision making based on the concept of majority voting. The main idea of majority voting is providing a computational tool to measure the degree to which different experts support each other's opinions and make a decision regarding this measure. The applicability of this model is examined in Tehran metropolitan area which is located in a seismically active region. The results indicate that neglecting the experts which get lower degrees of support from others enables the decision makers to avoid the extreme strategies. Moreover, a computational method is proposed to calculate the degree of optimism in the experts' opinions.

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“…ABV has proven to be a useful research tool. We have used it to evaluate seismic risk and to perform benefit-cost analysis of seismic-risk mitigation for steel-frame, woodframe, and concrete buildings, and to explore major contributors to the uncertainty in economic seismic risk (Beck et al 1999, Porter et al 2002b, Beck et al 2002, Porter et al 2002a). …”

Section: Assembly-based Vulnerabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Simplified Estimation of Economic Seismic Risk for Buildings

2004

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A seismic risk assessment is often performed on behalf of a buyer of commercial buildings in seismically active regions. One outcome of the assessment is that a probable maximum loss (PML) is computed. PML is of limited use to real-estate investors as it has no place in a standard financial analysis and reflects too long a planning period. We introduce an alternative to PML called probable frequent loss (PFL), defined as the mean loss resulting from shaking with 10% exceedance probability in 5 years. PFL is approximately related to expected annualized loss (EAL) through a site economic hazard coefficient (H) introduced here. PFL and EAL offer three advantages over PML: (1) meaningful planning period; (2) applicability in financial analysis (making seismic risk a potential market force); and (3) can be estimated using a single linear structural analysis, via a simplified method called linear assembly-based vulnerability (LABV) that is presented in this work. We also present a simple decision-analysis framework for real-estate investments in seismic regions, accounting for risk aversion. We show that market risk overwhelms uncertainty in seismic risk, allowing one to consider only expected consequences in seismic risk. We illustrate using 15 buildings, including a 7-story nonductile reinforced-concrete moment-frame building in Van Nuys, California, and 14 buildings from the CUREE-Caltech Woodframe Project.

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Sensitivity of Building Loss Estimates to Major Uncertain Variables

Cited by 233 publications

References 11 publications

Probabilistic Evaluation of Seismic Performance for a Steel Moment Frame Using Damage Indices

Probabilistic Evaluation of Seismic Performance for a Steel Moment Frame Using Damage Indices

A Novel Approach to Support Majority Voting in Spatial Group McDm Using Density Induced Owa Operator for Seismic Vulnerability Assessment

Simplified Estimation of Economic Seismic Risk for Buildings

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