Sensitivity of a global sea ice model to the treatment of ice thermodynamics and dynamics

Fichefet, Thierry; Maqueda, M. A. Morales

doi:10.1029/97jc00480

Cited by 906 publications

(651 citation statements)

References 73 publications

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“…Through the EU-WATCH project, simulation outcome from three GCMs was available on a global scale. The GCMs included are ECHAM5 (Roeckner et al, 2003;Jungclaus et al, 2006), CNRM3 (Royer et al, 2002;Salas-Mélia, 2002) and IPSL (Hourdin et al, 2006;Madec et al, 1998;Fichefet and Maqueda, 1997;Goosse and Fichefet, 1999). Each GCM provides meteorological forcing for the period 1960-2100.…”

Section: General Circulation Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models

Wanders

Lanen

2015

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Hydrological drought characteristics (drought in groundwater and streamflow) likely will change in the 21st century as a result of climate change. The magnitude and directionality of these changes and their dependency on climatology and catchment characteristics, however, is uncertain. In this study a conceptual hydrological model was forced by downscaled and bias-corrected outcome from three general circulation models for the SRES A2 emission scenario (GCM forced models), and the WATCH Forcing Data set (reference model). The threshold level method was applied to investigate drought occurrence, duration and severity. Results for the control period show that the drought characteristics of each GCM forced model reasonably agree with the reference model for most of the climate types, suggesting that the climate models' results after post-processing produce realistic outcomes for global drought analyses. For the near future (2021-2050) and far future (2071-2100) the GCM forced models show a decrease in drought occurrence for all major climates around the world and increase of both average drought duration and deficit volume of the remaining drought events. The largest decrease in hydrological drought occurrence is expected in cold (D) climates where global warming results in a decreased length of the snow season and an increased precipitation. In the dry (B) climates the smallest decrease in drought occurrence is expected to occur, which probably will lead to even more severe water scarcity. However, in the extreme climate regions (desert and polar), the drought analysis for the control period showed that projections of hydrological drought characteristics are most uncertain. On a global scale the increase in hydrological drought duration and severity in multiple regions will lead to a higher impact of drought events, which should motivate water resource managers to timely anticipate the increased risk of more severe drought in groundwater and streamflow and to design pro-active measures.

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Section: General Circulation Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models

Wanders

Lanen

2015

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…This model has 31 depth levels. The sea-ice module is the Louvain Ice Model (LIM) [Fichefet and Morales Maqueda, 1997], developed at Louvain-La-Neuve. The coupling of these components is performed using the OASIS (version 3) coupler [Valcke et al, 2004].…”

Section: Methods and Model Descriptionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relative contributions of climate change, stomatal closure, and leaf area index changes to 20th and 21st century runoff change: A modelling approach using the Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) land surface model

Alkama¹,

Kageyama²,

Ramstein³

2010

J. Geophys. Res.

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[1] The recent evolution of continental runoff is still an open question. A related and controversial question is the attribution of this change and its consequences on our predictions of the behavior of future runoff. Here, the Land Surface Model Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems is used to perform a set of transient simulations of the runoff from 1900 to 2100. We first show that the model's simulated runoff increases for the 20th century from a global point of view as well as its geographical pattern changes are close to the observations made in this paper. Moreover this trend is simulated to increase further during the 21st century under the SRES A2 scenario. We have designed a set of simulations to test the impact on global runoff evolution of three factors: climate, stomatal conductance, and vegetation growth, all sensitive to CO 2 increase. A complete factor-separation analysis of the influence of these three factors and of their interactions shows that climate change largely drives the 20th and 21st century runoff increase. The other two factors (stomatal conductance and vegetation growth) play a minor role in the 20th century runoff trend but we show that these contributions increase for the 21st century simulations. Although the interactions between the factors also plays a negligible role in the 20th century global runoff increase, our results show that they become significant during the 21st century, usually reducing the direct effect of each factor. However, our study does not reveal any important negative feedback to counteract the effect of climate warming on the hydrological cycle.Citation: Alkama, R., M. Kageyama, and G. Ramstein (2010), Relative contributions of climate change, stomatal closure, and leaf area index changes to 20th and 21st century runoff change: A modelling approach using the Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) land surface model,

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“…The model is coupled to a one thickness category sea-ice model with elastic-viscous-plastic (EVP) rheology (Hunke and Dukowicz, 1997); its thermodynamics are described in Drange and Simonsen (1996) with a correction of heat fluxes for sub-grid scale ice thickness heterogeneities following Fichefet and Morales Maqueda (1997). The sea-ice strength is set to 27 500 N m −2 .…”

Section: The Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

TOPAZ4: an ocean-sea ice data assimilation system for the North Atlantic and Arctic

et al. 2012

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Abstract. We present a detailed description of TOPAZ4, the latest version of TOPAZ -a coupled ocean-sea ice data assimilation system for the North Atlantic Ocean and Arctic. It is the only operational, large-scale ocean data assimilation system that uses the ensemble Kalman filter. This means that TOPAZ features a time-evolving, state-dependent estimate of the state error covariance. Based on results from the pilot MyOcean reanalysis for 2003-2008, we demonstrate that TOPAZ4 produces a realistic estimate of the ocean circulation in the North Atlantic and the sea-ice variability in the Arctic. We find that the ensemble spread for temperature and sea-level remains fairly constant throughout the reanalysis demonstrating that the data assimilation system is robust to ensemble collapse. Moreover, the ensemble spread for ice concentration is well correlated with the actual errors. This indicates that the ensemble statistics provide reliable state-dependent error estimates -a feature that is unique to ensemble-based data assimilation systems. We demonstrate that the quality of the reanalysis changes when different sea surface temperature products are assimilated, or when in-situ profiles below the ice in the Arctic Ocean are assimilated. We find that data assimilation improves the match to independent observations compared to a free model. Improvements are particularly noticeable for ice thickness, salinity in the Arctic, and temperature in the Fram Strait, but not for transport estimates or underwater temperature. At the same time, the pilot reanalysis has revealed several flaws in the system that have degraded its performance. Finally, we show that a simple bias estimation scheme can effectively detect the seasonal or constant bias in temperature and sea-level.

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Sensitivity of a global sea ice model to the treatment of ice thermodynamics and dynamics

Cited by 906 publications

References 73 publications

Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models

Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models

Relative contributions of climate change, stomatal closure, and leaf area index changes to 20th and 21st century runoff change: A modelling approach using the Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) land surface model

TOPAZ4: an ocean-sea ice data assimilation system for the North Atlantic and Arctic

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