Sensitivity and vulnerability of China's rice production to observed climate change

Abstract

Effective agricultural adaptation to climate change needs two pieces of information, the climatic risks posed on crop growth, and yield responses to the risks and associated mechanisms. Assessing the sensitivity and vulnerability of crop production to observed climate change is able to produce such information, facilitates the investment of the limited adaptation resources. Use the relationships between changes in rice yield and climatic variables and their spatial variations, we identified the sensitivity and vulnerability of China忆s rice production to observed climate change . The growing鄄season mean climatic variables exhibited significant changes during 1961-2007, indicating the possible climatic risks for rice growth. The increase in day time temperature was most widespread and obvious, suggesting increased risks of heat stresses. The relationships between rice yield and the climatic variables were significant in some rice areas, with the http: / / www. ecologica. cn largest percent of the rice area showed yield sensitivity to changes in diurnal temperature range. With a 1益 warming in growing鄄season temperature, 1 益 increase in diurnal temperature range, and a 10% decrease in radiation, much of the rice areas showed depressed yield to these changes. The area with yield vulnerability was largest to the change in radiation, and second largest to the change in diurnal temperature range. The combined effects of the observed trends of the three climatic variables caused significant change in roughly 30% of the rice areas, but with a small portion showed yield vulnerability. In addition, the negative effects were not pronounced in the principal rice areas, such as Yangtze River Basin, especially in northeast China, the observed climatic trends substantially increased rice yield during the past decades.

Contrasting impacts of two types of El Niño on the yields of early rice in Southern China

“…Previous studies have reported that rainfall temperature and solar radiation are the most critical and direct meteorological factors affecting the development of most crops (Sánchez, Rasmussen, & Porter, 2014; Xiong et al., 2013). To evaluate the relationships between these factors and early rice yields anomalies in SC, we considered the simultaneous correlations between early rice growing season rainfall, solar radiation, and temperature, as well as yield anomalies.…”

“…Chinese rice production is therefore a key factor in global and regional food security (Xiong & Cai, 1999; Yao, Xu, Lin, Yokozawa, & Zhang, 2007). However, rice production is sensitive to meteorological variables such as rainfall and temperature during the reproductive growth period (Akram et al., 2018; Iizumi et al., 2014; Parry, Rosenzweig, Iglesias, Livermore, & Fischer, 2004; Shuai, Zhang, Tao, & Shi, 2016; Tao & Yokozawa, 2005; Tao et al., 2004; Tao, Yokozawa, Liu, & Zhang, 2008; Xiong, Yang, Wu, Huang, & Cao, 2013; Ye et al., 2015; Zhang, Jin, & Turner, 2014; Zhang et al, 2014a, 2014b). Thus, it is important to study the factors that influence climate during the rice growing season, and ultimately, how these factors affect rice yields.…”

Responses of food production systems to climate change: sensitivity and vulnerability

“…Sensitivity and vulnerability have drawn more attention since the release of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Researchers are now trying to take advantage of indicator, simulation, and other different methods and means to carry out the research, or using the generation of agricultural statistics to reflect sensitivity and vulnerability quantitatively (Tao et al 2011;Wu et al 2011;Xiong et al 2013). However, to date there are no unified research methods and indicators to evaluate sensitivity and vulnerability.…”

“…Due to variation in climate type in China, food production has strong regional characteristics closely related to natural ecology and geographical environment, so it is are more sensitive to climate change. Food production systems are more complex, with a comprehensive and integrated environment requirement (Sun et al 2005;Xiong et al 2013). For example, while crop yield in Northeast China will not increase significantly simply on account of increased local temperatures, but an adequate water supply and matching of water and heat resources is more important.…”

Climate change impacts and adaptation in China: Current situation and future prospect

“…步更新和扩展, 如在农业领域, 已证明气候变化对中 国主要农作物(包括小麦、玉米、大豆、水稻)的生长 发育和产量产生了显著影响 [50] , 对未来粮食安全的 影响评估也引入了社会经济要素; 在重大工程领域, http://engine.scichina.com/doi/10.1360/N972015-01240 [51,52] ; 温度每升高 1℃, 黄河中游径流量将减少9.6亿m 3 , 径流对降水增 加比对减少更加敏感 [53] ; 在IPCC-SRES的B2情景下, 升温1℃导致生态系统正负效应相当, 2℃开始负面影 响程度逐渐增加(图4) [36] .…”