Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis from a coupled 3-PG and soil organic matter decomposition model

Xenakis, Georgios; Ray, Duncan; Mencuccini, Maurizio

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.07.020

Cited by 81 publications

(83 citation statements)

References 70 publications

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“…Previous studies have shown that 3-PG could produce accurate estimates of Scots pine and Black pine DBH and were able to simulate growth patterns under different ecological conditions (Esprey et al, 2004;Landsberg et al, 2005;Patenaude et al, 2008;Xenakis et al, 2008). Nominal values applied for this study were based on previous studies (Sands & Landsberg, 2001;Patenaude et al, 2008).…”

Section: Pg-model To Assess Decline Processesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The 3-PG model has been used for a wide variety of applications, including analysis of Pinus sylvestris (Landsberg et al, 2005;Xenakis et al, 2008) and Pinus nigra (Patenaude et al, 2008). These studies showed that when calibrated the 3-PG model can produce realistic estimates of growth on sites with similar soil moisture and climatic conditions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Growth decline assessment in Pinus sylvestris L. and Pinus nigra Arnold. forest by using 3-PG model.

Navarro-Cerrillo¹,

Beira²,

Suárez

et al. 2016

For. syst.

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Aim of the study : We assessed the ability of the 3-PG process-based model to accurately predict growth of Pinus sylvestris and P. nigra plantations across a range of sites, showing declining growth trends, in southern Spain.Area of study: The study area is located in "Sierra de Los Filabres" (Almería). Material and methods:The model was modified in fifteen parameters to predict diameter (DBH, cm), basal area increment (BAI, cm 2 yr -1 ) and leaf area index (LAI, m 2 m -2 ) in healthy trees and trees showing declining growth. We assumed that a set of specific physiological parameters (stem partitioning ratio-pFS 20 , maximum litterfall rate-γ Fx , maximum canopy conductance-g Cx , specific leaf area for mature aged stands-σ 1 , age at which specific leaf area = ½ (σ 0 + σ 1 ), age at full canopy cover-t c , and canopy boundary layer conductance-g B ) included in 3-PG would be suitable for predicting growth decline related to climate conditions. The calibrated model was evaluated using dendrochronological and LAI data obtained from plots.Main results: Observed and simulated DBH showed a high correlation (R 2 > 0.99) between modelled and measured values for both species. In contrast, modelled and observed BAI showed lower correlation (R 2 < 0.68). Sensitivity analysis on 3-PG outputs showed that the foliage parameters -maximum litterfall rate, maximum canopy conductance, specific leaf area for mature aged stands, age at which specific leaf area, and age at full canopy cover -were important for DBH and BAI predictions under drought stress.Research highlights: Our overall results indicated that the 3-PG model could predict growth response of pine plantations to climatic stress with desirable accuracy in southern Spain by using readily available soil and climatic data with physiological parameters derived from experiments.

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Section: Pg-model To Assess Decline Processesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Growth decline assessment in Pinus sylvestris L. and Pinus nigra Arnold. forest by using 3-PG model.

Navarro-Cerrillo¹,

Beira²,

Suárez

et al. 2016

For. syst.

Self Cite

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“…However, neither the standing carbon nor climate change predictions have been tested yet. Additionally, unlike 3PG there has been no work on integrating the model with routines of soil carbon dynamics (Xenakis et al 2008), which are an important component of the forest carbon cycle (Jandl et al 2007).While there can be no "perfect model", certain models will lend themselves better than others to certain tasks. Here we do not aim to determine a perfect model, but instead compare model utility for different tasks.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Each pool has different rates of decomposition, which may be further modulated by environmental conditions. Litterfall, root turnover and natural mortality calculated by 3PG are used as inputs to the soil carbon pools.A previous calibration of 3PGN parameters for Scots pine (Xenakis et al 2008) was used for this study. This used the same 51 plot dataset as the SLeDG parametrisation.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Calibration was performed for different plots and a mean parameter vector was extracted. For more details see Xenakis et al (2008).The model was run for each yield class. Average climatic and site conditions for each yield class (YC) were estimated based on mean climate for each yield class and a mean soil type estimated from 45 soil samples collected by Xenakis et al (2012) from across Scotland.…”

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confidence: 99%

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A comparison of models for quantifying growth and standing carbon in UK Scots pine forests

Lonsdale

Xenakis²,

Mencuccini

et al. 2015

iForest

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© iForest -Biogeosciences and Forestry IntroductionThe combination of both spatial scale and rotation length of forest stands mean that models of forest growth are essential for sustainable management (Blanco et al. 2008). Historically this has been achieved using yield models which use empirical relations between state variables such as top height, basal area, and number of stems to forecast stand development and timber volume production (Vanclay 1994). For example, in the UK there is widespread use of the yield tables of Edwards & Christie (1981) provided through a lookup package ForestYield. Increased emphasis on providing a multifunction forest resource (Nijnik & Mather 2007) has meant that such models have had to be applied to activities such as carbon storage reporting (Dyson et al. 2009). However, forest managers focusing on multi-function management are in turn more likely to deviate from management regimes aimed only at maximising timber production. Another shortcoming of such yield tables is that they fail to be linked causally to the drivers of productivity such as climate and nutrient availability, and are unable to account for changes in these drivers as might be expected in a changing climate (Monserud 2003). A shift to more flexible forest models is appropriate to accommodate for changes in environment or management objectives.Hybrid models combine both empirical and process based modelling approaches: using simple mathematical relationships between stand variables, and representations of the underlying ecophysiological processes in stand development respectively. Through the combination, shortcomings of the empirical and process-based approaches may be ameliorated (Landsberg 2003, Monserud 2003, providing both traditional outputs for forest managers as well as estimates of carbon sequestration, whilst reducing the uncertainty in model outputs that occurs in complex process modelling (Valentine & Mäkelä 2005). Additionally, prediction precision may be improved by using a hybrid approach which can deal with changes in growing environment not represented in empirical models (Pinjuv et al. 2006).There are a number of hybrid models which have been applied for varied species and locations globally (Valentine & Mäkelä 2005, Weiskittel et al. 2009a, Mason et al. 2011. Perhaps the most widely applied hybrid model is Physiological Principles Predicting Growth (3PG) developed by Landsberg & Waring (1997). It uses physiological principles as the basis for a relatively simple process-based model that can provide forest managers with stand variables as well as estimates of carbon fixation. The model works in three stages: derivation of primary production, partitioning the production to above and below ground portions, and derivation of output variables . . However, while 3PG has the potential to be used over large areas where it has not been calibrated (Almeida et al. 2010), it still requires a large number of parameters to be measured or estimated (both climatic and in the stand). This may increase both mode...

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Forest Growth and Yield Modeling

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Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis from a coupled 3-PG and soil organic matter decomposition model

Cited by 81 publications

References 70 publications

Growth decline assessment in Pinus sylvestris L. and Pinus nigra Arnold. forest by using 3-PG model.

Growth decline assessment in Pinus sylvestris L. and Pinus nigra Arnold. forest by using 3-PG model.

A comparison of models for quantifying growth and standing carbon in UK Scots pine forests

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