Sensitivity and Optimal Control Analysis of an Extended SEIR COVID‐19 Mathematical Model

Wachira, Charle; Lawi, G. O.; Omondi, L. O.

doi:10.1155/2022/1476607

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 40 publications

(45 reference statements)

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“…To evaluate the influence of a single input parameter on the basic reproduction number in different SEIR-type models with constant coefficients, a normalized forward sensitivity index was used in [44][45][46][47].…”

Section: Parameter Sensitivity Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Differential and Time-Discrete SEIRS Models with Vaccination: Local Stability, Validation and Sensitivity Analysis Using Bulgarian COVID-19 Data

et al. 2023

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Bulgaria has the lowest COVID-19 vaccination rate in the European Union and the second-highest COVID-19 mortality rate in the world. That is why we think it is important better to understand the reason for this situation and to analyse the development of the disease over time. In this paper, an extended time-dependent SEIRS model SEIRS-VB is used to investigate the long-term behaviour of the COVID-19 epidemic. This model includes vaccination and vital dynamics. To apply the SEIRS-VB model some numerical simulation tools have been developed and for this reason a family of time-discrete variants are introduced. Suitable inverse problems for the identification of parameters in discrete models are solved. A methodology is proposed for selecting a discrete model from the constructed family, which has the closest parameter values to these in the differential SEIRS-VB model. To validate the studied models, Bulgarian COVID-19 data are used. To obtain all these results for the discrete models a mathematical analysis is carried out to illustrate some biological properties of the differential model SEIRS-VB, such as the non-negativity, boundedness, existence, and uniqueness. Using the next-generation method, the basic reproduction number associated with the model in the autonomous case is defined. The local stability of the disease-free equilibrium point is studied. Finally, a sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number is performed.

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Section: Parameter Sensitivity Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Differential and Time-Discrete SEIRS Models with Vaccination: Local Stability, Validation and Sensitivity Analysis Using Bulgarian COVID-19 Data

et al. 2023

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Sensitivity Analysis of a HIV Superinfection Model

Ogunniran,

Ibrahim

2024

EMSJ

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In this work, a HIV superinfection model with two unique viral strains was presented. The next generation method was adopted to compute the reproduction number of the model. The model was analyzed for the parameters responsible for the spread of the strains in the population of CD4 T-cells. This is to help us find the most sensitive parameters out of all. Using the normalized sensitivity index, the most sensitive parameter of the model is the rate of infection of the primary strain (β). Hence β should be minimized so that the population of the primary strains in the CD4 T cells population does not lead to an endemic state.

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Sensitivity and Optimal Control Analysis of an Extended SEIR COVID‐19 Mathematical Model

Cited by 2 publications

References 40 publications

Differential and Time-Discrete SEIRS Models with Vaccination: Local Stability, Validation and Sensitivity Analysis Using Bulgarian COVID-19 Data

Differential and Time-Discrete SEIRS Models with Vaccination: Local Stability, Validation and Sensitivity Analysis Using Bulgarian COVID-19 Data

Sensitivity Analysis of a HIV Superinfection Model

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