Sensitivity Analysis of Snow Cover to Climate Change Scenarios and Their Impact on Plant Habitats in Alpine Terrain

Keller, Franziska; Goyette, Stéphane; Beniston, Martin

doi:10.1007/s10584-005-5360-2

Cited by 143 publications

(119 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…They open the way to a process-based, biophysical modeling of alpine pastures growth in response to environmental forcing, follow-P. Choler: Growth response of grasslands to snow cover duration 3895 ing an approach used in a different climate . Year-to-year variability in snow cover in the Alps is high (Beniston et al, 2003) and climate-driven changes in snow cover are on-going (Hantel et al, 2000;Keller et al, 2005;Beniston, 1997). Understanding the factors controlling the timing and amount of biomass produced in mountain pastures thus represents a major challenge for agro-pastoral economies.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Growth response of temperate mountain grasslands to inter-annual variations in snow cover duration

Choler

2015

Biogeosciences

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Abstract.A remote sensing approach is used to examine the direct and indirect effects of snow cover duration and weather conditions on the growth response of mountain grasslands located above the tree line in the French Alps. Time-integrated Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI int ), used as a surrogate for aboveground primary productivity, and snow cover duration were derived from a 13-year long time series of the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). A regional-scale meteorological forcing that accounted for topographical effects was provided by the SAFRAN-CROCUS-MEPRA model chain. A hierarchical path analysis was developed to analyze the multivariate causal relationships between forcing variables and proxies of primary productivity. Inter-annual variations in primary productivity were primarily governed by year-to-year variations in the length of the snow-free period and to a much lesser extent by temperature and precipitation during the growing season. A prolonged snow cover reduces the number and magnitude of frost events during the initial growth period but this has a negligible impact on NDVI int as compared to the strong negative effect of a delayed snow melting. The maximum NDVI slightly responded to increased summer precipitation and temperature but the impact on productivity was weak. The period spanning from peak standing biomass to the first snowfall accounted for two-thirds of NDVI int and this explained the high sensitivity of NDVI int to autumn temperature and autumn rainfall that control the timing of the first snowfall. The ability of mountain plants to maintain green tissues during the whole snowfree period along with the relatively low responsiveness of peak standing biomass to summer meteorological conditions led to the conclusion that the length of the snow-free period is the primary driver of the inter-annual variations in primary productivity of mountain grasslands.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Growth response of temperate mountain grasslands to inter-annual variations in snow cover duration

Choler

2015

Biogeosciences

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“…The target species were classified according to their habitat preferences, i.e., occurrence predominantly in the following types of habitats: snowbeds, screes, rocks, ridges, swards, tall-herb communities, dwarf-shrub heaths, springs, and mires [19,20].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The swards are low-grass tussock communities on rather flat areas [20]. The following rare species occur there: Callianthemum coriandrifolium, Polygonum viviparum, Saxifraga adscendens, Senecio carpathicus, and Thlaspi kovatsii.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in Population Size of Rare Plant Species in the Alpine Habitats of the Ukrainian Carpathians under Climate Change

Kobiv

2018

Diversity

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Population trends in rare alpine plant species in the high-mountain zone of the Ukrainian Carpathians are described with regard to the types of habitats where they occur. Populations of cold-adapted species confined to snowbeds, alpine screes, poorly vegetated rocks, and the highest ridges, as well as mires and springs, are very vulnerable to climate change, while their habitats tend to shrink. The direct impact of warming affects mainly the most cryophilic species. Another driver of changes is climate-induced succession that results in denser vegetation cover and encroachment of more thermophilic plants, which replace low-competitive rare alpine species. Their replacement is largely caused by the loss of open microsites suitable for seed recruitment. However, the climate-driven decrease of snow cover often leads to frost damage to vegetation that provides gaps appropriate for the establishment of many rare species. One of the groups of species that benefit from warming includes rather thermophilic tall herbs that are more common in the subalpine zone but have been actively spreading at higher altitudes lately.

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“…albedo change) is of major environmental (e.g. Keller et al, 2005) and economic (e.g. Elsasser and Buerki, 2002;Gonseth, 2013) interest.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected changes of snow conditions and avalanche activity in a warming climate: the French Alps over the 2020–2050 and 2070–2100 periods

Eckert²,

et al. 2014

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Abstract. Projecting changes in snow cover due to climate warming is important for many societal issues, including the adaptation of avalanche risk mitigation strategies. Efficient modelling of future snow cover requires high resolution to properly resolve the topography. Here, we introduce results obtained through statistical downscaling techniques allowing simulations of future snowpack conditions including mechanical stability estimates for the mid and late 21st century in the French Alps under three climate change scenarios. Refined statistical descriptions of snowpack characteristics are provided in comparison to a 1960-1990 reference period, including latitudinal, altitudinal and seasonal gradients. These results are then used to feed a statistical model relating avalanche activity to snow and meteorological conditions, so as to produce the first projection on annual/seasonal timescales of future natural avalanche activity based on past observations. The resulting statistical indicators are fundamental for the mountain economy in terms of anticipation of changes.Whereas precipitation is expected to remain quite stationary, temperature increase interacting with topography will constrain the evolution of snow-related variables on all considered spatio-temporal scales and will, in particular, lead to a reduction of the dry snowpack and an increase of the wet snowpack. Overall, compared to the reference period, changes are strong for the end of the 21st century, but already significant for the mid century. Changes in winter are less important than in spring, but wet-snow conditions are projected to appear at high elevations earlier in the season. At the same altitude, the southern French Alps will not be significantly more affected than the northern French Alps, which means that the snowpack will be preserved for longer in the southern massifs which are higher on average.Regarding avalanche activity, a general decrease in mean (20-30 %) and interannual variability is projected. These changes are relatively strong compared to changes in snow and meteorological variables. The decrease is amplified in spring and at low altitude. In contrast, an increase in avalanche activity is expected in winter at high altitude because of conditions favourable to wet-snow avalanches earlier in the season. Comparison with the outputs of the deterministic avalanche hazard model MEPRA (Modèle Expert d'aide à la Prévision du Risque d'Avalanche) shows generally consistent results but suggests that, even if the frequency of winters with high avalanche activity is clearly projected to decrease, the decreasing trend may be less strong and smooth than suggested by the statistical analysis based on changes in snowpack characteristics and their links to avalanches observations in the past. This important point for risk assessment pleads for further work focusing on shorter timescales. Finally, the small differences between different climate change scenarios show the robustness of the predicted avalanche activity changes.

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Sensitivity Analysis of Snow Cover to Climate Change Scenarios and Their Impact on Plant Habitats in Alpine Terrain

Cited by 143 publications

References 33 publications

Growth response of temperate mountain grasslands to inter-annual variations in snow cover duration

Growth response of temperate mountain grasslands to inter-annual variations in snow cover duration

Trends in Population Size of Rare Plant Species in the Alpine Habitats of the Ukrainian Carpathians under Climate Change

Projected changes of snow conditions and avalanche activity in a warming climate: the French Alps over the 2020–2050 and 2070–2100 periods

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