Sensitivity analysis of ground-level ozone concentration to emission changes in two urban regions of southeast Texas

Lin, Che‐Jen; Ho, Thomas C.; Chu, Hsing-Wei; Yang, Heng; Chandru, Santosh; Krishnarajanagar, Nagesh; Chiou, Paul; Hopper, J.R.

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2004.09.012

Cited by 24 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Finally, the third domain (D03) had a horizontal cell resolution of 8 km Â 8 km. The latter horizontal resolution is similar to the one others have used in regional O 3 sensitivity studies (e.g., Bell and Ellis, 2004;Lin et al, 2005;Geng et al, 2007). Tie et al (2010) suggest a ratio of no less than 6:1 between the city boundaries (length or width) and the horizontal grid resolution for urban centers with a sprawl similar to that of Mexico City.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 70%

“…In this study, we focused on the response of O 3 concentrations to changes in emissions from all the Mexican sources; that is, U.S. emissions remained unchanged. Results from other studies (e.g., Lin et al, 2005;Zhan et al, 2008) suggest that summer O 3 levels in northeastern Mexico are not influenced by major urban centers in Texas (i.e., San Antonio, Houston, Galveston, Dallas).…”

Section: Emission Reduction Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 83%

“…Eastern Texas has been extensively studied, particularly the Houston-Galveston (HG) area. However, studies have demonstrated that the influence of Mexican emissions on O 3 levels in HG is small (e.g., Lin et al, 2005;Ying and Krishnan, 2010;Zhang and Ying, 2011). Here we present a modeling study that looks at the sensitivity of ground-level O 3 to hypothetical reductions in NOx and VOC emissions for a summer 2005 episode to expand the current knowledge on this issue for the region of interest, and that could help guide public policies related to emission control strategies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Ozone sensitivity to its precursor emissions in northeastern Mexico for a summer air pollution episode

Sierra

Vanoye

Mendoza

2013

Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association

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A summer episode was modeled to address the expected response of ambient air O 3 to hypothetical emission control scenarios in northeastern Mexico, and in particular in the Monterrey Metropolitan Area (MMA). This region is of interest because the MMA holds one of the worst air quality problems in the country and levels of air pollutants in the rest of northeastern Mexico are starting to be a concern. The MM5-SMOKE-CMAQ platform was used to conduct the numerical experiments. Twenty-four control scenarios were evaluated, combining the level of emission controls of O 3 precursors (NOx and volatile organic compounds [VOCs]) from 0% to 50%. For the MMA, VOC-only controls result in the best option to reduce O 3 concentrations, though the benefit is limited to the urban core. This same strategy results in negligible benefits for the rest of northeastern Mexico. NOx controls result in an increase in O 3 concentration within the MMA of up to 20 ppbv and a decrease at downwind locations of up to 11 ppbv, with respect to the basecase scenario. Indicator ratios were also used to probe for NOx-sensitive and VOC-sensitive areas. Locations with an important influence of NOx point sources (i.e., Monclova and Nava/Acuña) are quite sensitive to changes in NOx emissions. Border cities in the Rio Bravo/Grande Valley tend to be marginally NOx-sensitive. Overall, the MMA seems to be dominated by a VOC-sensitive regime, while the rest of the region would tend to have a NOx-sensitive response. The results obtained serve to expand the current knowledge on the chemical regimes that dominate this region (VOC-or NOx-sensitive), and thus could help guide public policies related to emission regional control strategies.Implications: Updated information on the expected response of ambient air O 3 to emission changes in northeastern Mexico is presented. Results suggest that emission control strategies for the Monterrey Metropolitan Area should focus on VOC reductions or combined VOC-NOx reductions, while the Lower Rio Bravo/Grande Valley border has a negligible response to the emission scenarios tested. Changes in NOx emissions from Carbon II, a 1,400-MW coal-fired electric utility, would have a nonnegligible transboundary effect.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 70%

Section: Emission Reduction Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 83%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Ozone sensitivity to its precursor emissions in northeastern Mexico for a summer air pollution episode

Sierra

Vanoye

Mendoza

2013

Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association

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“…And NO 2 , one kind of NOx, could be considered to have high correlation with the anthropogenic source of vehicles. Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) also influence the formation of ozone (Lin et al, 2005;Stein et al, 2005). The degradation reactions of VOCs lead to the formation of intermediate which react with NO, converting NO to NO 2 .…”

Section: Other Factors Affecting Air Qualitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Ambient air quality trends and driving factor analysis in Beijing, 1983–2007

Zhang

Ouyang

Miao

et al. 2011

Journal of Environmental Sciences

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“…The SAPRC99 mechanism provides a relatively detailed representation of known atmospheric chemistry while maintaining the computational efficiency necessary for conducting regional air quality simulations over long time periods (e.g., seasonal and annual simulations). Models that incorporate SAPRC chemical mechanisms have been evaluated against chamber 11,12 and ambient measurements 13,14 as well as predictions based on other mechanisms. [15][16][17] Recently, the SAPRC mechanism was updated to reflect an improved understanding of chemical reactions and kinetics.…”

Section: Technical Papermentioning

confidence: 99%

Photochemical Modeling in California with Two Chemical Mechanisms: Model Intercomparison and Response to Emission Reductions

Cai

Kelly

Avise

et al. 2011

Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association

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An updated version of the Statewide Air Pollution Research Center (SAPRC) chemical mechanism (SAPRC07C) was implemented into the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) version 4.6. CMAQ simulations using SAPRC07C and the previously released version, SAPRC99, were performed and compared for an episode during JulyAugust, 2000. Ozone (O 3 ) predictions of the SAPRC07C simulation are generally lower than those of the SAPRC99 simulation in the key areas of central and southern California, especially in areas where modeled concentrations are greater than the federal 8-hr O 3 standard of 75 parts per billion (ppb) and/or when the volatile organic compound (VOC)/nitrogen oxides (NO x ) ratio is less than 13. The relative changes of ozone production efficiency (OPE) against the VOC/NO x ratio at 46 sites indicate that the OPE is reduced in SAPRC07C compared with SAPRC99 at most sites by as much as approximately 22%. The SAPRC99 and SAPRC07C mechanisms respond similarly to 20% reductions in anthropogenic VOC emissions. The response of the mechanisms to 20% NO x emissions reductions can be grouped into three cases. In case 1, in which both mechanisms show a decrease in daily maximum 8-hr O 3 concentration with decreasing NO x emissions, the O 3 decrease in SAPRC07C is smaller. In case 2, in which both mechanisms show an increase in O 3 with decreasing NO x emissions, the O 3 increase is larger in SAPRC07C. In case 3, SAPRC07C simulates an increase in O 3 in response to reduced NO x emissions whereas SAPRC99 simulates a decrease in O 3 for the same region. As a result, the areas where NO x controls would be disbeneficial are spatially expanded in SAPRC07C. Although the results presented here are valuable for understanding differences in predictions and model response for SAPRC99 and SAPRC07C, the study did not evaluate the impact of mechanism differences in the context of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's guidance for using numerical models in demonstrating air quality attainment. Therefore, additional study is required to evaluate the full regulatory implications of upgrading air quality models to SAPRC07. INTRODUCTIONRegional chemical transport models (CTMs) are widely used in air quality applications for forecasting ozone (O 3 ) and particulate matter (PM) pollution events 1,2 and for developing emission control strategies for reducing pollution to protect human health. 3 CTM simulations are the only reliable method for estimating the response of pollutant concentrations to changes in emissions and meteorology over regional domains. Therefore air quality management agencies use CTM-derived estimates of concentration responses to emission reductions in developing State Implementation Plans for reducing O 3 and PM pollution to comply with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). 4,5 The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model 6 is routinely used for regulatory applications in California.A major component of a CTM is the gas-phase chemical mecha...

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Sensitivity analysis of ground-level ozone concentration to emission changes in two urban regions of southeast Texas

Cited by 24 publications

References 17 publications

Ozone sensitivity to its precursor emissions in northeastern Mexico for a summer air pollution episode

Ozone sensitivity to its precursor emissions in northeastern Mexico for a summer air pollution episode

Ambient air quality trends and driving factor analysis in Beijing, 1983–2007

Photochemical Modeling in California with Two Chemical Mechanisms: Model Intercomparison and Response to Emission Reductions

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