Sensitivity Analysis Methods for Uncertainty Budgeting in System Design

Opgenoord, Max M. J.; Willcox, Karen

doi:10.2514/1.j054743

Cited by 9 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…If undetected, they can lead to unexpected failure of the engine and unscheduled component replacement. Kale and Haftka, 5 Opgenoord and Willcox, 6 and Millwater and Wieland 7 developed probabilistic frameworks to predict the risk of fracture associated with undetected weld defects and to define the proposed inspections plans. These methods consider the sensitivity of manufacturing conditions, inspection methods, and component-loading conditions to achieve reliability target with minimum inspection and manufacturing costs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus, inspection scheduling can be planned based on the reliability updating of gas turbine welded structures using this new efficient methodology. The flowchart in Figure 1, explained by Opgenoord and Willcox, 6 shows the different steps in the methodology. It has four loops that can be repeated separately or simultaneously (all loops at the same time) during all of the component life phases.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Inspection scheduling based on reliability updating of gas turbine welded structures

Coro

Abasolo

Aguirrebeitia

et al. 2019

Advances in Mechanical Engineering

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This article presents a novel methodology for the inspection scheduling of gas turbine welded structures, based on reliability calculations and overhaul findings. The model was based on a probabilistic crack propagation analysis for welds in a plate and considered the uncertainty in material properties, defect inspection capabilities, weld geometry, and loads. It developed a specific stress intensity factor and an improved first-order reliability method. The proposed routine alleviated the computational cost of stochastic crack propagation analysis, with accuracy. It is useful to achieve an effective design for manufacturing, to develop structural health monitoring applications, and to adapt inspection schedules to airplane fleet experience.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inspection scheduling based on reliability updating of gas turbine welded structures

Coro

Abasolo

Aguirrebeitia

et al. 2019

Advances in Mechanical Engineering

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“…The findings PDF gets a shape similar to a lognormal PDF. The integration of Equation (19) in [17], simulates the inspection, and it gets the 27% of the defective parts, at 100 load cycles. If the inspection is repeated at 200 load cycles, the defective parts found increase to 48%.…”

Section: Loop 3 Parts 1 and 2: Am-case Inspection-finding Predictionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Methodology to Evaluate the Reliability Impact of the Replacement of Welded Components by Additive Manufacturing Spare Parts

Coro

Macareno

Aguirrebeitia

et al. 2019

Metals

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This article shows a method for inspection scheduling of structures made by additive manufacturing, derived from reliability function evaluations and overhaul inspection findings. The routine was an adaption of an existing method developed by the authors for welded components; in this latter case, the routine used a stochastic defect-propagation analysis for pores and lack of fusion defects of additive manufacturing process, instead of the weld liquation crack. In addition, the authors modified the specific stress-intensity factor for welded components to consider additive manufacturing-related material property variability, defect distributions, flaw-inspection capabilities, and component geometry. The proposed routine evaluated the failure rate and inspection intervals using the first-order reliability method (FORM + Fracture) to alleviate the computational cost of probabilistic defect-propagation analysis. The proposed method is one of the first applying reliability concepts to additive manufacturing (AM) components. This is an important milestone, since in 10 years, additive manufacturing is to be used for 30% of the components in aeroengines. This paper presents an example comparing the reliability and cost of a jet engine, with components either made by additive manufacturing or welded parts; in the process, the reliability AM-key features are found, and overhaul schedules of an airplane fleet made with AM components are defined. The simplicity and performance demonstrated in the comparison make the proposed method a powerful engineering tool for additive manufacturing assessment in aeronautics.

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“…Prior works analyzed new transport aircraft with uncertain design parameters and have demonstrated the benefits of adding a rigorous consideration of uncertainty to the design and analysis processes. [1][2][3][4] Other works have focused on the propagation of uncertainty and the di↵erent types of uncertainties that are present in coupled engineering system design. [5][6][7][8][9][10][11] These works show that consideration of uncertainty expands the design space and often enriches it, allowing for more robust designs to be obtained.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Complex system design under uncertainty with example uncertain parameters and performance metrics. Adapted from Ref [1]…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Model Uncertainty: A Challenge in Nonlinear Coupled Multidisciplinary System Design

Lazzara

Princen

Feldstein

et al. 2018

2018 AIAA/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics, and Materials Conference

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This paper considers the e↵ects of uncertainty on multidisciplinary analysis estimates used in conceptual aircraft design. Specifically, the paper presents an analysis of the stability and control (S&C) characteristics of an illustrative Blended-Wing-Body (BWB) configuration using uncertain aerodynamic estimates. The S&C properties of a BWB are highly nonlinear, and as such pose a challenge for low-fidelity analysis techniques. By propagating bounds on uncertain aerodynamic data them through the analysis, bounds are derived for the resulting S&C limits. These estimates can then be used to guide future research and development e↵orts. Results demonstrate that even moderate uncertainty in estimating aerodynamic lift, drag, and moment coe cients translates into large uncertainty in estimating the center of gravity limits, due to the highly nonlinear nature of the S&C model. The paper identifies directions for ongoing work using a multifidelity approach to address this issue.

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Sensitivity Analysis Methods for Uncertainty Budgeting in System Design

Cited by 9 publications

References 37 publications

Inspection scheduling based on reliability updating of gas turbine welded structures

Inspection scheduling based on reliability updating of gas turbine welded structures

A Methodology to Evaluate the Reliability Impact of the Replacement of Welded Components by Additive Manufacturing Spare Parts

Model Uncertainty: A Challenge in Nonlinear Coupled Multidisciplinary System Design

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