Sensitivity analysis in lightning protection risk management

Farkas, Tekla D.; Szedenik, Norbert; Kiss, István

doi:10.1016/j.elstat.2012.12.040

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…Considering the correlation between lightning intensity and damage typologies to structures (CENELEC, 2011; Darveniza et al., 2004; Fisher, Hoole, Pirapaharan, Thirukumaran, & Hoole, 2014; Loboda & Lenarczyk, 2014), as well as the high sensitivity of lightning risk assessment to lightning flash density parameters (Farkas, Szedenik, & Kiss, 2013), this study contributes to the field by incorporating a lightning intensity parameter (i.e., peak current measures in kiloamperes) to better characterize lightning hazard and explore the spatial patterns of U.S. airports exposure to lightning strikes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Airport Exposure to Lightning Strike Hazard in the Contiguous United States

Lindbergh

Graves

et al. 2020

Risk Analysis

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Reliability of the air transportation system heavily depends on the performance of communication, navigation, and surveillance facilities in the National Airspace System (NAS). These facilities are prone to outages caused by convective weather, such as lightning. Current lightning safety standards and risk assessments focus solely on lightning occurrence and omit the effect of lightning intensity from hazard characterization. We propose methods that incorporate lightning intensity and occurrence parameters to better understand the impact of lightning strike on the NAS using the National Lightning Detection Network and Federal Aviation Administration NAS facilities and equipment outage databases. Spatial analysis and clustering reveal different exposure profiles for 436 U.S. airports. Kernel Density estimation and Hot Spot analysis show that regardless of lightning intensity, Southern state airports are the most exposed to lightning hazards. K‐means clustering reveal five different lightning exposure profiles that mimic the spatial patterns produced by the Kernel Density estimation and Hot Spot analysis. A scoring system ranks all airports according to their exposure profile taking into consideration lightning occurrence and intensity. It is complemented with a rising trend exposure analysis, which identifies airports whose exposure could be underestimated under the current standards, identifying airports with fewer lightning occurrences but higher intensities. Finally, a comparison between the exposure patterns and lightning‐induced outages provide insights into U.S. lightning impact patterns. Similar patterns between lightning exposure and outages indicate that the results of the proposed lightning hazard assessment provide useful information for prioritizing airport hardening investments at the national scale and reducing lightning risk.

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