Sensitivity analysis and multi‐response, multi‐criteria evaluation of a physically based distributed model

Anderton, S.; Latron, Jérôme; Gallart, Francesc

doi:10.1002/hyp.336

Cited by 95 publications

(67 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…The study of Anderton et al (2002) illustrated that optima can be found in different parts of the parameter space, depending on the hydrological variable of interest (e.g. soil moisture, phreatic surface level or discharge).…”

Section: Reduction Of Uncertainty In Other Hydrological Model Outputsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Significant uncertainty in global scale hydrological modeling from precipitation data errors

Weiland

Vrugt

Beek

et al. 2015

Journal of Hydrology

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Keywords:Global hydrological modeling Forcing uncertainty Model calibration Parameter uncertainty s u m m a r yIn the past decades significant progress has been made in the fitting of hydrologic models to data. Most of this work has focused on simple, CPU-efficient, lumped hydrologic models using discharge, water table depth, soil moisture, or tracer data from relatively small river basins. In this paper, we focus on largescale hydrologic modeling and analyze the effect of parameter and rainfall data uncertainty on simulated discharge dynamics with the global hydrologic model PCR-GLOBWB. We use three rainfall data products; the CFSR reanalysis, the ERA-Interim reanalysis, and a combined ERA-40 reanalysis and CRU dataset. Parameter uncertainty is derived from Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) using monthly discharge data from five of the largest river systems in the world. Our results demonstrate that the default parameterization of PCR-GLOBWB, derived from global datasets, can be improved by calibrating the model against monthly discharge observations. Yet, it is difficult to find a single parameterization of PCR-GLOBWB that works well for all of the five river basins considered herein and shows consistent performance during both the calibration and evaluation period. Still there may be possibilities for regionalization based on catchment similarities. Our simulations illustrate that parameter uncertainty constitutes only a minor part of predictive uncertainty. Thus, the apparent dichotomy between simulations of global-scale hydrologic behavior and actual data cannot be resolved by simply increasing the model complexity of PCR-GLOBWB and resolving sub-grid processes. Instead, it would be more productive to improve the characterization of global rainfall amounts at spatial resolutions of 0.5°and smaller.

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Section: Reduction Of Uncertainty In Other Hydrological Model Outputsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Significant uncertainty in global scale hydrological modeling from precipitation data errors

Weiland

Vrugt

Beek

et al. 2015

Journal of Hydrology

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“…Hillslope studies utilizing tensiometry and permeametry continue to be used in the tropics (Noguchi et al, 1997;Dykes and Thornes, 2000), and indeed elsewhere (McGlynn et al, 2002;Uchida et al, 2002), and many physics-based catchment models continue to use the results of hillslope studies to evaluate their internal dynamics (e.g. Anderton et al, 2002). This study aims to use tensiometry and permeametry in the estimation of subsurface flow routes and magnitudes.…”

Section: Field Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Contrasting flow pathways within tropical forest slopes of Ultisol soils

Chappell

Sherlock

2005

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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There are very few experimental studies identifying hydrological pathways within rain forest slopes. Such knowledge is, however, necessary to understand why forest disturbance affects rainfall-riverflow response and nutrient migration. This study examines flow pathways within lowland rain forest slopes comprising Udults of the Ultisol soil order. Experimentation was conducted on four SE Asian hillslope units (each 5 × × × × × 5 m in plan) in the Bukit Timah catchment (Singapore Island), and in the W8S5 catchment (Sabah, Borneo Island). The flow pathways were identified by artificial tracer experiments. We evaluated how well hydrometric calculations based on tensiometry and permeametry measurements predicted the tracer patterns.The tracer work indicated much faster subsurface flows at Bukit Timah than W8S5 for the storms studied. Some explanation of the greater subsurface waterflows at Bukit Timah in comparison to W8S5 is afforded by the less steep moisture release curves which maintain hydraulic conductivity as the soil dries. Vertical flow of the tracer through the upper 1 m of soil predominated (> > > > >90 per cent of percolation) in the Bukit Timah slopes. In some contrast, a major component (approximately 60 per cent) of the tracer percolation was directed laterally within the W8S5 slopes. The flow vectors calculated using the hydrometric methods did, however, grossly under-estimate the degree of lateral deflection of waterflow generated at W8S5 and to a lesser extent over-estimated it at Bukit Timah. In part, these errors may relate to the inability of traditional hydrometric techniques to fully characterize the effect of the large and small 'natural soil pipes' present within both catchments. In conclusion, the study indicates that marked variations in flow vectors exist within the Udult great group of SE Asian soils and hydrometric calculations may be poor predictors of these dominant pathways.

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“…Assessing the accuracy of intermediate predictands is not altogether novel. A multi-response, multi-criteria evaluation of a distributed physically based model has already been studied by Anderton et al (2002). In this case, model results were validated by comparing simulated outlet discharge, soil moisture reserve and phreatic surface level with observations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Runoff modelling of the glacierized Alpine Upper Salzach basin (Austria): multi‐criteria result validation

Koboltschnig

Schöner

Zappa

et al. 2008

Hydrological Processes

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Abstract:Snow cover and glaciers are the most important long-term forms of water storage and, hence, the main sources of runoff during the ablation period for many alpine headwater basins. We therefore investigated the application of the conceptual, distributed hydrological precipitation runoff evapotranspiration hydrological response unit model (PREVAH) to the alpine glacierized headwater basin of the Upper Salzach (593 km 2 , 5% glacierized) river in Austria. Hourly meteorological data from 17 stations for a 6-year period were available for the calibration and validation of the hourly runoff simulations. Multi-criteria validation included hourly discharge, snow covered area (SCA), and glacier mass balances. SCA maps were generated from optical satellite images for six dates. These maps were compared to simulated maps of SCA to (1) calculate differences in SCA, (2) calculate altitudinal differences, and (3) show the ability to accurately model snow cover on different aspects. The differences between observed and simulated SCA for glacierized areas were between 1 and 9% during June and July, and between 10 and 36% during August and September observations. In general, the model overestimated SCA, which is the result of PREVAH not including redistribution of snow by wind or avalanches. The temporal variability of the simulated mass balance agreed well with observations from surrounding glaciers. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Criteria (R 2 ) of the hourly discharge simulations were between 0Ð83 and 0Ð89 with the exception of the extreme summer of 2003 which had an R 2 of 0Ð74. Contributions of glacier melt (firn/ice melt) to annual total runoff were between 1 and 4%. Again, the exception was 2003, when glaciers contributed 15% of the annual runoff and 60% to the August runoff alone.

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Sensitivity analysis and multi‐response, multi‐criteria evaluation of a physically based distributed model

Cited by 95 publications

References 27 publications

Significant uncertainty in global scale hydrological modeling from precipitation data errors

Significant uncertainty in global scale hydrological modeling from precipitation data errors

Contrasting flow pathways within tropical forest slopes of Ultisol soils

Runoff modelling of the glacierized Alpine Upper Salzach basin (Austria): multi‐criteria result validation

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