SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: A NECESSITY IN WATER PLANNING¹

Abstract

In water planning activities, major emphasis has been placed on the development of procedures for devising “optimum plans.” These plans are defined as those which meet prespecified demands for water at “minimum cost.” However, all plans are developed subject to postulated conditions regarding the state of the physical system and of nature. Because planning takes place in a dynamic and uncertain environment in which postulated conditions are known to change, it is imperative that the planner be apprised in the planning phase of the effect of changes which can occur. Using “this information, a planner can temper his judgment with a knowledge of the effect of the uncertainty resulting from changes in the system state variables. This paper presents results of the use of a computer simulation and optimization model to quantify possible variations in system response which could occur as a result of uncertainty in the postulated physical and economic conditions under which the proposed water development system was to perform. The possible effects of these variable responses on planning decision‐making is discussed.

Phosphorus Management: An Analysis of the Virginia Phosphorus Index

“…and (d) which parameters correlate most significantly to the output (Hamby, 1994). Meier et al (1971) indicated that the sensitivity of a model's responses to variations in input data can be used to determine the relative importance of input information. This can place emphasis on developing and refining data that have the greatest influence on model output.…”

Variabilidad espacio-temporal del contenido de humedad del suelo en una zona mediterránea semiárida : efectos de las condiciones antecedentes en la respuesta hidrológica

“…El análisis de la sensibilidad de un modelo a variaciones en sus parámetros de entrada es útil para indicar la importancia relativa que estos parámetros tienen en la respuesta del modelo (Meier et al, 1971). De esta forma, conociendo los factores a los que el modelo es más sensible, es posible intensificar el cuidado y precisión en la obtención, medición y caracterización de tales factores (Tiscareno-López, 1991).…”