Self-selecting candidates or compelling voters: How organized crime affects political selection

Neutralizing the Tentacles of Organized Crime. Assessment of the Impact of an Anti-Crime Measure on Mafia Violence in Italy

“…and with a larger number of women (Baraldi and Ronza, 2022), who are typically less inclined to corruption (e.g., Eagly and Crowley, 1986;Eckel and Grossman, 1998;Glover et al, 1997;Goertzel, 1983;Ones and Viswesvaran, 1998), as well as younger politicians at their first term in o ce (Daniele and Geys, 2015;Fenizia and Saggio, 2022). 32 Moreover, Baraldi et al (2022b) have shown that the change of o ceholders is driven by a change in voters' behaviour rather than by a change in the candidate pool. Thus apparently the enforcement of Law 164 is e↵ective in undercutting the popular belief in the inevitability of the mafia's influence on politics and thereby increasing the trust of local communities in the state's capacity to fight corruption (Kline and Moretti, 2014b).…”

“…Specifically, at the first electoral round a criminal organization may refrain to attack candidates because violent intimidation can only be e↵ective to the extent that organised crime has the power to oblige voters to cast their preferences for the mafia-backed candidate Gambetta (1996). The tendency of voters to elect more highly qualified individuals after the dissolution (see Baraldi et al, 2022b) indicates that organised crime is no longer able to guarantee strong support to its candidates. Hence the first electoral round after a dissolution could well result in a renewal of o ceholders.…”

“…We further support this mechanism by showing that the decrease in violence after compulsory administration relates only to politicians on the city council. We refer to robust evidence that the reduction in the profitability of corruption is a consequence of the renewal of the pool of politicians in o ce, which following compulsory administration tends to consist of more highly qualified individuals with a larger proportion of well-educated women Dipoppa, 2017, Baraldi andRonza, 2022), who are typically less inclined to corruption and criminal activities (Lochner, 2004), as well as reflecting a new awareness on the part of citizens that the mafia is not invincible (Baraldi et al, 2022b).…”

Neutralizing the Tentacles of Organized Crime. Assessment of an Anti-Crime Measure in Fighting Mafia Violence

“…In this regard, a relevant strand of literature has exploited the shocks to the cost of corruption produced by the enforcement of Law 164 to examine how organized crime a↵ects the quality of politicians (Daniele and Geys, 2015;Baraldi et al, 2021; as well as economic performance and the allocation of public resources in the dissolved municipalities (Fenizia and Saggio, 2022;Di Cataldo and Mastrorocco, 2021).…”