Self-Scaling of the Statistical Properties of a Minimal Model of the Atmospheric Circulation

Lucarini, Valerio; Speranza, Antonio; Vitolo, Renato

doi:10.1007/978-0-387-34918-3_12

Cited by 4 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…to the large-scale atmospheric dynamics at mid-latitudes. (Such assumptions are, however, at least questionable, see [47,48]). In this way, the quasi-geostrophic equations are obtained.…”

Section: Remarksmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Dynamical systems modeling of low-frequency variability in low-order atmospheric models

Broer¹,

Vitolo²

2008

DCDS-B

Self Cite

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The understanding of atmospheric and oceanic low-frequency variability is an old problem having both theoretical interest and practical importance, e.g., for the assessment of climate change. In this paper possible relations with dynamical systems theory are given, in particular through bifurcation theory. Firstly, a specific type of oceanic low frequency variability is described, the so-called Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Then recent work is reviewed, that investigates bifurcations as these occur in a few low-order models of the atmospheric circulation. It is shown that the Shil ′ nikov bifurcation in the Hopf-saddle-node bifurcation scenario takes place in each of the above atmospheric models. Related strange attractors and intermittency behavior are also found, both in agreement with the theoretical expectations and with qualitative aspects of the climate variability, like the AMO. It is discussed how the latter connection may be consolidated in higher dimensional and in PDE models.

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“…to the large-scale atmospheric dynamics at mid-latitudes. (Such assumptions are, however, at least questionable, see [47,48]). In this way, the quasi-geostrophic equations are obtained.…”

Section: Remarksmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…By a vertical discretization in two horizontal layers, the two-layer quasi-geostrophic model is derived (see e.g. [47,48]). From the two-layer quasi-geostrophic model, by using a Fourier expansion plus a Galerkin projection, one obtains a 6-dimensional ordinary differential equation [69].…”

Section: Remarksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamical systems modeling of low-frequency variability in low-order atmospheric models

Broer¹,

Vitolo²

2008

DCDS-B

Self Cite

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“…By contrast, geophysical flows are stratified and rotational flows, where an inverse cascade of energy induces the bidimensionalization of motions and contributes to the formation of large-scale coherent structures (Pouquet and Marino, 2013). In laboratory experiments (Lamriben et al, 2011) and geophysical observations (Craig and Banner, 1994;Holmes et al, 1998) one aims at separating coherent and turbulent components and build theoretical models to describe the associated motions (Charney, 1971;Pitcher, 1977;Jiang et al, 1995;Lucarini et al, 2007). As pointed out by several authors (see Schertzer and Lovejoy (1991) for a review), this task is non-trivial because both the inverse and direct cascades coexist for geophysical motions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A wavelet-based approach to detect climate change on the coherent and turbulent component of the atmospheric circulation

Faranda

Defrance

2016

Earth Syst. Dynam.

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Abstract. The modifications of atmospheric circulation induced by anthropogenic effects are difficult to capture because wind fields feature a complex spectrum where the signal of large-scale coherent structures (planetary, baroclinic waves and other long-term oscillations) is mixed up with turbulence. Our purpose is to study the effects of climate changes on these two components separately by applying a wavelet analysis to the 700 hPa wind fields obtained in climate simulations for different forcing scenarios. We study the coherent component of the signal via a correlation analysis to detect the persistence of large-scale or long-lasting structures, whereas we use the theory of autoregressive moving-average stochastic processes to measure the spectral complexity of the turbulent component. Under strong anthropogenic forcing, we detect a significant climate change signal. The analysis suggests that coherent structures will play a dominant role in future climate, whereas turbulent spectra will approach a classical Kolmogorov behaviour.

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“… the statistical properties, specifically extreme value statistics, of time‐series of total energy generated by a baroclinic model of intermediate complexity for the atmospheric mid‐latitudes (Felici et al, 2007a,b; Lucarini et al, 2007a,b); the description of wave propagation in the mid‐latitude atmosphere as simulated by a state‐of‐the‐art coupled GCMs (simulations for the IPCC report) and associated products such as reanalyses (Dell'Aquila et al, 2005; Ruti et al, 2006; Lucarini et al, 2007c). …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Accessing extremes of mid-latitudinal wave activity: methodology and application

Vitolo¹,

Ruti²,

Dell’Aquila³

et al. 2009

Tellus A

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A statistical methodology is proposed and tested for the analysis of extreme values of atmospheric wave activity at mid‐latitudes. The adopted methods are the classical block‐maximum and peak over threshold, respectively based on the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Time‐series of the ‘Wave Activity Index’ (WAI) and the ‘Baroclinic Activity Index’ (BAI) are computed from simulations of the General Circulation Model ECHAM4.6, which is run under perpetual January conditions. Both the GEV and the GPD analyses indicate that the extremes of WAI and BAI are Weibull distributed, this corresponds to distributions with an upper bound. However, a remarkably large variability is found in the tails of such distributions; distinct simulations carried out under the same experimental setup provide sensibly different estimates of the 200‐yr WAI return level. The consequences of this phenomenon in applications of the methodology to climate change studies are discussed. The atmospheric configurations characteristic of the maxima and minima of WAI and BAI are also examined.

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Self-Scaling of the Statistical Properties of a Minimal Model of the Atmospheric Circulation

Cited by 4 publications

References 50 publications

Dynamical systems modeling of low-frequency variability in low-order atmospheric models

Dynamical systems modeling of low-frequency variability in low-order atmospheric models

A wavelet-based approach to detect climate change on the coherent and turbulent component of the atmospheric circulation

Accessing extremes of mid-latitudinal wave activity: methodology and application

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