“…The dynamics of the model, which capture how the share of the population in each of these compartments move from category to category over time, is driven by empirically based transition (change) rules (formally described as differential mathematic equations) based on existing data that represent a modification of the simple mover-stayer druguse epidemic model presented in Rossi, 2002, and is consistent with other drug using models, as well as models of noninfectious diseases Rydell, Caulkins, and Everingham, 1996;Shallenberger, 1998;Behrens, Caulkins, Tragler, Haunschmied, et al, 1999). These transition rules make use of information available through military-specific data sources on average transitions in the current ADSM population.…”