Selecting among five common modelling approaches for integrated environmental assessment and management

Kelly, Rebecca; Jakeman, Anthony J.; Barreteau, Olivier; Borsuk, Mark E.; Elsawah, Sondoss; Hamilton, Serena H.; Henriksen, Hans Jørgen; Kuikka, Sakari; Maier, Holger R.; Rizzoli, Andrea Emilio; Delden, Hedwig van; Voinov, Alexey

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.05.005

Cited by 595 publications

(178 citation statements)

References 183 publications

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“…SD could be defined as a methodology to visualize, learn, manage, and communicate complex systems rigorously (Maani, 2009;Kelly et al, 2013). SD includes identification of problems, primary variables, and interactions between variables; model validation; sensitivity analysis, and scenario simulations.…”

Section: System Thinking Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Selecting Tools for Renewable Energy Analysis in Developing Countries: An Expanded Review

et al. 2017

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Renewable energy planners in developing countries should be cautious in using analytical tools formulated in developed countries. Traditional energy consumption, economic and demography transitions, high-income inequality, and informal economy are some characteristics of developing countries that may contradict the assumptions of mainstream, widely used analytical tools. In this study, we synthesize the debate in previous review studies on energy models for developing countries and then extend the scope of the previous studies by highlighting emerging methods of system thinking, life cycle thinking, and decision support analysis. We then discuss how these tools have been used for renewable energy analysis in developing countries and found out that not all studies are aware of the emerging critical issues in developing countries. We offer here a guidance to select the most appropriate analytical tool, mainly when dealing with energy modeling and analysis for developing countries. We also suggest potential future improvements to the analytical tool for renewable energy modeling and analysis in the developing countries.

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Section: System Thinking Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Selecting Tools for Renewable Energy Analysis in Developing Countries: An Expanded Review

et al. 2017

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“…We use iterative time-stepped simulation to evolve the model of the system forward in time with equations representing influences -in representing any complex system some of these influences will form feedback loops (Hayward and Boswell, 2014;Mollerup et al, 2015). Thus we are dealing with a dynamical system model in which the interplay of positive and negative feedback mechanisms will drive system behaviour (Kelly et al, 2013). The feedback control implemented for the nonstock variables is discussed in sections 3.5 and 3.6 and Appendix C. In section 4.1 and Appendix E it is applied to the case study.…”

Section: Modelling Paradigm and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

A robust data-driven macro-socioeconomic-energy model

Roberts

Axon

Goddard

et al. 2016

Sustainable Production and Consumption

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In a resource-constrained world with growing population and demand for energy, goods, and services with commensurate environmental impacts, we need to understand how these trends relate to aspects of economic activity. We present a computational model that links energy demand through to final economic consumption, illustrated by application to UK data. Our model fits within a whole-economy framework which harmonises multiple national accounting procedures. Our model minimises both the number of exogenous aspects and tuning factors by using historical data to calibrate relationships. We divide economic activity into a number of distinct but interdependent outputs that are non-substitutable in the short-term. The dynamic aspects assume that supply follows demand, but are constrained in the short-term by physical infrastructure. At the same time, capital formation grows the physical infrastructure. Our model regenerates historical data dynamically as a basis for projecting forward scenarios to discuss pathways to a lower carbon future.

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“…Computer-based modelling and simulations of complex and dynamic systems can be applied for prediction, forecast, policy making, social learning, theory building, system understanding and experimentation [96]. A number of techniques can be used for systems modelling and simulation, e.g.…”

Section: Systems Modelling and Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There are two layers of SD -qualitative, at a systems thinking level, and quantitative, including a computer simulation model [99]. Agent-based (AB) modelling covers the interaction between autonomous entities in a system [96]. AB models usually have three components: a set of agents; a set of agent relationships and ways of interaction; the agents' environment ( [99] based on [100]).…”

Section: Systems Modelling and Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Methods for assessing future scenarios from a sustainability perspective

et al. 2017

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Future scenarios are often used to address long-term challenges characterised by uncertainty and complexity, as they can help explore different alternative future pathways. Scenarios can therefore be a useful tool to support policy and guide action towards sustainability. But what sustainability aspects are put forward in scenarios and how are they assessed? This paper aims to explore how to assess future scenarios, categorised according to Börjeson et al. (Futures 38:723-739, 2006) i.e. predictive, explorative and normative scenarios. By conducting a literature review and a document analysis, we map tools and methods that are currently used to assess environmental and social sustainability aspects in scenarios. We also draw on experiences from methods for impact assessments of Swedish municipal comprehensive plans, which can be considered as future scenarios. We identify whether some sustainability aspects are less recurrent than others in the reviewed assessments or even left out. We find that there is no single tool that can be used to assess scenarios. Some quantitative tools based on databases may be more suitable for assessing scenarios within a shorter time horizon, whereas qualitative assessment methods might better fit the purpose of long-term transformative scenarios. We also find that assessment frameworks may be useful to guide the assessment, as to what its intended purpose is and which sustainability aspects to include. Finally we discuss whether further assessment tools are needed in order to include a wider array of potential environmental or social consequences of the content of scenarios.

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Selecting among five common modelling approaches for integrated environmental assessment and management

Cited by 595 publications

References 183 publications

Selecting Tools for Renewable Energy Analysis in Developing Countries: An Expanded Review

Selecting Tools for Renewable Energy Analysis in Developing Countries: An Expanded Review

A robust data-driven macro-socioeconomic-energy model

Methods for assessing future scenarios from a sustainability perspective

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