Seismicity Parameters and Spatially Smoothed Seismicity Model for Iran

Khodaverdian, Alireza; Zafarani, Hamid; Rahimian, M.; Dehnamaki, V.

doi:10.1785/0120150178

Cited by 33 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 71 publications

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“…These parameters are calculated by the maximum likelihood procedure of Kijko et al (2016) from the observed seismicity after removing aftershocks and foreshocks. The homogenized earthquake catalog, compiled by Shahvar et al (2013) and updated by Khodaverdian et al (2016b), is used. Mw is chosen as a reference magnitude, and the entire earthquake catalog is declustered using Gardner and Knopoff (1974) approach.…”

Section: Deformation-based Activity Rate and Its Comparison With Obse...mentioning

confidence: 99%

A Probabilistic Deformation-based Seismic Hazard Model for Iran

Lotfi

Zafarani

Khodaverdian

2022

Preprint

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Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, as the most prevalent approach to evaluate earthquake hazard, is commonly based on earthquake catalogs. Although previous studies show that the recurrence time of large-magnitude ( M w > 7.0) events in Iran is more than ~1000-2000 years, the available instrumentally recorded earthquakes are limited to less than 100 years. With the idea of having another proxy for seismicity rates, we propose a methodology to evaluate activity rates from strain rates in a combination of regional estimates of and . Considering the comprehensive deformation model of the Iranian Plateau, we found that the deformation-based occurrence rates are more than the catalog-based occurrence rates in all seismotectonic provinces in the Iranian Plateau. Except for Central Iran, the ratios of the deformation-based to the catalog-based occurrence rate are between 1.21-3.95. For the first time, a probabilistic deformation-based seismic hazard model for the Iranian plateau is also developed and Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) values for 10% and 2% POEs in 50 years are estimated. The highest levels of PGA are found in the Azerbaijan and Alborz seismotectonic provinces, where the highest value of strain rates is located. The spatial averages of PGA with 10% POE in 50 years from the deformation-based model are up to 30% higher than the results of a traditional probabilistic seismic hazard for almost all provinces except the Zagros region.

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Section: Deformation-based Activity Rate and Its Comparison With Obse...mentioning

confidence: 99%

A Probabilistic Deformation-based Seismic Hazard Model for Iran

Lotfi

Zafarani

Khodaverdian

2022

Preprint

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“…We considered the map of the seismotectonic provinces presented by Mirzaei et al (1998) as a base and separated Azerbaijan-Alborz and Central-East Iran into two parts so that seven seismotectonic provinces (i.e., Azerbaijan, Alborz, Kopeh Dagh, Zagros, Central Iran, Eastern Iran, and Makran) are finally considered for the Iranian Plateau (Figure 1). Also shown in Figure 1 is a homogenized earthquake catalog compiled by Shahvar et al (2013) and updated by Khodaverdian et al (2016b). All earthquakes in the Iranian plateau are shallow crustal events, with focal depths less than 40 km, except events in the Makran subduction zone, southeast Iran, where deeper earthquakes (in-slab or interface earthquakes) could occur (Mirzaei et al (1998).…”

Section: Tectonic Setting Of the Iranian Plateaumentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Deformation-based Activity Rate and Its Comparison With Obse...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Seismic source model, including source geometry and earthquake occurrence rates, and Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) are two main components of PSHA, which play a major role in the Probability of Exceedance (POE) of ground motion parameters at any given site. In the common practice of PSHA, a catalog of historical and instrumental earthquakes is used for the identification of seismogenic sources and quantifying the earthquake occurrence rates (Ghodrati Amiri et al 2003, Shabani and Mirzaei 2007, Abdollahzadeh et al 2014a, Khodaverdian et al 2016b, Khoshnevis et al 2017. Due to the limited number of largemagnitude instrumentally recorded earthquakes and lack of historical evidence for all faults, rates of large-magnitude earthquakes are usually extrapolated from rates of small-to-moderate ones in the prevalent PSHA (Ward 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Up to now, several researchers have built PSHA models for the Iranian Plateau with different assumptions (Shabani and Mirzaei 2007, Abdollahzadeh et al 2014b, Khodaverdian et al 2016b, Khoshnevis et al 2017. Khodaverdian et al (2016b) built a catalog-based seismic hazard model for Iran using the smoothed seismicity approach. Khoshnevis et al (2017) provided a hazard model for the northern part of Iran based on observed seismicity using the same approach.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A probabilistic deformation-based seismic hazard model for Iran

Lotfi

Zafarani²,

Khodaverdian³

2022

Bull Earthquake Eng

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Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, as the most prevalent approach to evaluate earthquake hazard, is commonly based on earthquake catalogs. Although previous studies show that the recurrence time of large-magnitude (Mw > 7.0) events in Iran is more than ~1000-2000 years, the available instrumentally recorded earthquakes are limited to less than 100 years. With the idea of having another proxy for seismicity rates, we propose a methodology to evaluate activity rates from strain rates in a combination of regional estimates of  and max m .Considering the comprehensive deformation model of the Iranian Plateau, we found that the deformation-based occurrence rates are more than the catalog-based occurrence rates in all seismotectonic provinces in the Iranian Plateau. Except for Central Iran, the ratios of the deformation-based to the catalog-based occurrence rate are between 1.21-3.95. For the first time, a probabilistic deformation-based seismic hazard model for the Iranian plateau is also developed and Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) values for 10% and 2% POEs in 50 years are estimated. The highest levels of PGA are found in the Azerbaijan and Alborz seismotectonic provinces, where the highest value of strain rates is located. The spatial averages of PGA with 10% POE in 50 years from the deformation-based model are up to 30% higher than the results of a traditional probabilistic seismic hazard for almost all provinces except the Zagros region.

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