Seismic risk assessment for the infrastructure in the regions adjacent to the Russian Federation Baikal–Amur Mainline based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes

Abstract

The objective of the analysis is to evaluate, for a period of 50 years, the 10%, 5% and 1% probability of exceedance of seismic events in terms of loss in performance of infrastructure in the regions adjacent to the Russian Federation Baikal-Amur Mainline and Trans-Siberian Railway. In particular, we use earthquake data compiled at the Baikal Division of the Russian Geophysical Survey, which provides su ciently complete earthquake determinations of M = 2.5 or larger for the period 1994-2019 for mapping the USLE coe cients at the seismically active cells of a regular grid. Based on these estimates, we present maps of the maximum expected magnitude in about 500, 1000 and 5000 years. Having described an anisotropic seismic effect model of seismic sites in the region, we conclude by characterizing the seismic hazard in traditional macroseismic intensity terms and estimating the associated seismic risk to infrastructures.