Seismic Performance and Recovery Modeling of Natural Gas Networks at the Community Level Using Building Demand

Ameri, Mohammad Reza; Lindt, John W. van de

doi:10.1061/(asce)cf.1943-5509.0001315

Cited by 13 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…There are both advantages and disadvantages to empirical RR models. For example, they are commonly used in regional seismic risk assessments of pipelines, including gas pipelines (Ameri and van de Lindt 2019;Esposito et al 2013Esposito et al , 2015Gehl et al 2014;Jahangiri and Shakib 2018;Mousavi et al 2014;De Risi et al 2018;Shabarchin and Tesfamariam 2017). Furthermore, they are developed empirically from observed damage in past earthquakes.…”

Section: Available Informationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Earthquake Risk of Gas Pipelines in the Conterminous United States and Its Sources of Uncertainty

Kwong

Jaiswal

Baker

et al. 2022

ASCE-ASME J. Risk Uncertainty Eng. Syst., Part A: Civ. Eng.

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Relatively little research has been conducted to systematically quantify the nationwide earthquake risk of gas pipelines in the US; simultaneously, national guidance is limited for operators across the country to consistently evaluate the earthquake risk of their assets. Furthermore, many challenges and uncertainties exist in a comprehensive seismic risk assessment of gas pipelines. As a first stage in a systematic nationwide assessment, we quantify the earthquake risk of gas transmission pipelines in the conterminous US due to strong ground shaking, including the associated uncertainties. Specifically, we integrate the US Geological Survey 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model, a logic tree-based exposure model, three different vulnerability models, and a consequence model. The results enable comparison against other risk assessment efforts, encourage more transparent deliberation regarding alternative approaches, and facilitate decisions on potentially assessing localized risks due to ground failures that require site-specific data. Based on the uncertainties approximated herein, the resulting sensitivity analyses suggest that the vulnerability model is the most influential source of uncertainty. Finally, we highlight research needs such as (1) developing more vulnerability models for regional seismic risk assessment of gas pipelines; (2) identifying, prioritizing, and measuring input pipeline attributes that are important for estimating seismic damage; and (3) better quantifying seismic hazards with their uncertainties at the national scale, for both ground failures and ground shaking.

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