Seismic hazard from instrumentally recorded, historical and simulated earthquakes: Application to the Tibet–Himalayan region

Sokolov, Vladimir; Ismail‐Zadeh, Alik

doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2015.07.004

Cited by 26 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 98 publications

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“…A progress in geohazard (earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, tsunami) assessments is based on in-depth analysis of individual hazards. In seismic hazard analysis, recent advances are associated with neo-deterministic approach to hazard assessment [Panza et al, 2010] and data-enhanced probabilistic SHA [Sokolov and Ismail-Zadeh, 2015]. Particularly, tectonically-realistic earthquake simulators help to generate seismicity for a big interval of time and to employ large synthetic seismic events for hazard assessment.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Using the Monte-Carlo probabilistic SHA, Sokolov and Ismail-Zadeh [2015] developed a new approach to hazard assessment incorporating large magnitude synthetic events obtained by BAFD simulations consistent with the geophysical and geodetic data as well as the observed earthquakes into the ground motion estimation. Earthquake scenarios for hazard assessment are generated stochastically to sample the magnitude and spatial distribution of seismicity, as well as the distribution of ground motion for each seismic event.…”

Section: Earthquake Simulator and Hazard Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They applied this approach to hazards analysis in the Tibet-Himalayan region. Figure 2 compares the results of the hazard assessment for the Eastern Sichuan (China) obtained by two methods: the standard probabilistic SHA [Giardini et al, 1999] and the assessment method proposed by Sokolov and Ismail-Zadeh [2015]. The peak ground acceleration in the new hazard model is by a factor of 2 to 3 greater than that in the standard hazard model, and hence better explains observed shaking due to the 2008 Wenchuan 7.9 earthquake.…”

Section: Earthquake Simulator and Hazard Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The peak ground acceleration in the new hazard model is by a factor of 2 to 3 greater than that in the standard hazard model, and hence better explains observed shaking due to the 2008 Wenchuan 7.9 earthquake. The data-enhanced seismic hazard assessment by Sokolov and Ismail-Zadeh [2015] may provide a better understanding of ground shaking and could be useful for earthquake risk assessment, engineering purposes, and emergency planning.…”

Section: Earthquake Simulator and Hazard Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Geohazard research, modeling, and assessment for disaster risk reduction

Ismail‐Zadeh¹

2016

Russ. J. Earth Sci.

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Scientific understanding of lithosphere dynamics, earthquake occurrence, volcanic eruption, lava flow and other geohazards events as well as geophysical hazard assessments are greatly advanced for the last several decades. Meanwhile despite these major advancements, yet we are not seeing significant disaster risk reduction and a concomitant decline in disaster impacts and losses. There are at least two major issues that should be improved before significant reduction in disaster losses: enhancing geohazards research and integrating it into disaster risk analysis and risk assessment, and convolving the research with policymaking. This paper, presented at the international conference "Data Intensive System Analysis for Geohazard Studies" (Sochi, Russia, 2016), highlights the importance of geohazards studies as a contribution to integrated research on disaster risk. To improve hazard assessments, I present here (i) an alternative approach to the seismic hazard analysis involving information on recorded, historic and simulated earthquakes as well as (ii) advanced quantitative modeling of lava flows due to effusive volcanic eruptions. Risk assessment efforts toward a reduction of disasters are then discussed in the framework of system analysis approach.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Earthquake Simulator and Hazard Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Earthquake Simulator and Hazard Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Earthquake Simulator and Hazard Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Geohazard research, modeling, and assessment for disaster risk reduction

Ismail‐Zadeh¹

2016

Russ. J. Earth Sci.

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“…PSHA adalah formulasi matematis yang berasal dari analisis probabilitas hubungan statistik antara besarnya gempabumi, lokasi, dan redaman gerakan tanah (Wang, 2012). PSHA dapat menentukan frekuensi total yang melebihi berbagai tingkat gerakan tanah selama periode waktu tertentu (Sokolov dan Ismail-Zadeh, 2015), sehingga pendekatan ini dapat digunakan untuk menghitung bahaya gempabumi berdasarkan pada kumpulan kejadian gempabumi (McGuire, 1995). Untuk bahaya seismik pendekatan ini diakui lebih baik daripada pendekatan deterministik (Mualchin, 2010).…”

Section: Abstrakunclassified

Analisis Risiko Gempabumi Di Cilacap Provinsi Jawa Tengah

2016

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Gempabumi merupakan kejadian yang datangnya secara tiba-tiba. Hingga kini kejadian gempa bumi tersebut masih belum dapat diprediksi kedatangannya. Wilayah yang berdekatan dengan jalur subduksi pada umumnya merupakan wilayah yang rawan terhadap bencana gempabumi, seperti Kabupaten Cilacap yang berada di pesisir selatan Pulau Jawa. Gempabumi Tasikmalaya yang terjadi tanggal 2 September 2009, dengan magnitudo M 7.3 terbukti telah berdampak besar terhadap wilayah Kabupaten Cilacap. Hal ini yang membuat perlunya penelitian risiko gempabumi di wilayah Cilacap. Studi bahaya gempabumi dan kerentanan akan sangat mendukung untuk penilaian risiko maupun program mitigasi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melakukan analisis dan pemetaan bahaya, kerentanan, dan risiko gempabumi di kota Cilacap. Metode untuk analisis bahaya gempabumi menggunakan nilai percepatan tanah maksimum di permukaan (PGAM) dari hasil metode probabilistik. Untuk kerentanan gempabumi ditentukan berdasarkan jenis penggunaan lahan. Adapun untuk perhitungan risiko bencana gempabumi digunakan persamaan R = H × V. Berdasarkan hasil analisis bahaya, didapatkan bahwa seluruh Kota Cilacap tergolong ke dalam kelas bahaya sedang dengan nilai PGAM bervariasi dari 0.405 – 0.494 gal. Berdasarkan hasil analisis kerentanan, diperoleh bahwa kerentanan tinggi terdapat di penggunaan lahan permukiman yang meliputi Desa-desa Tambakreja, Sidanegara, Donan, Tritih Kulon bagian selatan, Cilacap, Mertasinga, dan Kamulyan. Adapun hasil analisis risiko menunjukkan bahwa kelas risiko tinggi di daerah penelitian meliputi area seluas 3,237.40 ha yang terdapat di Desa-desa Lomanis, Tambakreja, Tritih Kulon, Sidanegara, Donan, Mertasinga, dan Cilacap, sehingga di desa-desa tersebut perlu mendapat perhatian dan prioritas untuk program mitigasi bencana ke depan. Kata kunci: Kota Cilacap, risiko gempabumi, percepatan tanah maksimum di permukaan, metode probabilistik

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Earthquake Hazard Modelling and Forecasting for Disaster Risk Reduction

Ismail‐Zadeh

2018

Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

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Seismic hazard from instrumentally recorded, historical and simulated earthquakes: Application to the Tibet–Himalayan region

Cited by 26 publications

References 98 publications

Geohazard research, modeling, and assessment for disaster risk reduction

Geohazard research, modeling, and assessment for disaster risk reduction

Analisis Risiko Gempabumi Di Cilacap Provinsi Jawa Tengah

Earthquake Hazard Modelling and Forecasting for Disaster Risk Reduction

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