Seismic hazard due to small-magnitude, shallow-source, induced earthquakes in The Netherlands

Eck, T. van; Goutbeek, F. H.; Haak, Hein; Dost, B.

doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2006.06.005

Cited by 119 publications

(77 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Due to the small number of events recorded in the Groningen field, initially seismicity related to all gas fields in the north of the Netherlands was combined to gain insight into the characteristics of seismicity. Van Eck et al (2006) showed differences in frequency-magnitude relation between Groningen and the other gas fields and published a first probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for the region. Output of the PSHA is given in the form of a map of predicted ground motions for a specified probability of exceedance, which is selected at 10% probability in 50 years or a return period of 475 years.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of seismicity and probabilistic hazard assessment for the Groningen gas field

Dost

Ruigrok

Spetzler

2017

Netherlands Journal of Geosciences

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The increase in number and strength of shallow induced seismicity connected to the Groningen gas field since 2003 and the occurrence of a M L 3.6 event in 2012 started the development of a full probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for Groningen, required by the regulator. Densification of the monitoring network resulted in a decrease of the location threshold and magnitude of completeness down to ∼ M L = 0.5. Combined with a detailed local velocity model, epicentre accuracy could be reduced from 0.5-1 km to 0.1-0.3 km and a vertical resolution ∼0.3 km. Time-dependent seismic activity is observed and taken into account into PSHA calculations. Development of the Ground Motion Model for Groningen resulted in a significant reduction of the hazard. Comparison of different implementations of the PSHA, using different source models, based on either a compaction model and production scenarios or on extrapolation of past seismicity, and methods of calculation, shows similar results.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of seismicity and probabilistic hazard assessment for the Groningen gas field

Dost

Ruigrok

Spetzler

2017

Netherlands Journal of Geosciences

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124

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“…Induced seismic activity in the north of the Netherlands began in 1986; five notable events have previously occurred in the area of interest, four in the Bergermeer reservoir and one the Bergen reservoir (Haak et al, 2001). Despite small earthquakes ≤3.5ML, the Alkmaar area is considered an area of low seismic hazard (van Eck et al, 2006), constituting less of a risk than the Groningen gas field in north-eastern Netherlands (TNO, 2015;van Thienen-Visser and Breunese, 2015). Dutch mining legislation introduced in 2003 requires that operators assess seismic hazard as part of a risk appraisal before exploration and production licenses can be awarded (van Eijs et al, 2006).…”

Section: Accepted Manuscriptmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monitoring land motion due to natural gas extraction: Validation of the Intermittent SBAS (ISBAS) DInSAR algorithm over gas fields of North Holland, the Netherlands

Gee

Sowter

Novellino

et al. 2016

Marine and Petroleum Geology

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Access from the University of Nottingham repository:http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35962/1/AAM%20-%20Monitoring%20land%20motion%20_ %20Marine%20and%20Petroleum%20Geology.pdf Copyright and reuse:The Nottingham ePrints service makes this work by researchers of the University of Nottingham available open access under the following conditions. This article is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives licence and may be reused according to the conditions of the licence. For more details see: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ A note on versions:The version presented here may differ from the published version or from the version of record. If you wish to cite this item you are advised to consult the publisher's version. Please see the repository url above for details on accessing the published version and note that access may require a subscription.For more information, please contact eprints@nottingham.ac.uk Accepted ManuscriptMonitoring land motion due to natural gas extraction: Validation of the intermittent SBAS (ISBAS) DInSAR algorithm over gas fields of North Holland, the Netherlands. This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain. M A N U S C R I P T A C C E P T E D ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPTMonitoring land motion due to natural gas extraction: validation of the Intermittent SBAS (ISBAS) DInSAR algorithm over gas fields of NorthHolland, the Netherlands. *Corresponding Author KeywordsDInSAR, Intermittent SBAS, Gas production, Subsidence. AbstractThe differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (DInSAR) remote sensing technique has proven to be invaluable in the remote monitoring of earth surface movements associated with the extraction and geostorage (subsurface injection) of natural resources (water, oil, gas). However, a significant limitation of this technique is the low density and uneven coverage that may be achieved over vegetated rural environments. The Intermittent Small Baseline Subset (ISBAS) method, an amended M A N U S C R I P T A C C E P T E D ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPTversion of the established SBAS algorithm, has been designed to improve coverage over rural, vegetated, land cover classes by allowing for the intermittent coherence that is predominant in such areas. In this paper we perform a validation of the ISBAS method over an area of gas production and geostorage in North Holland, the Netherlands. Fortytwo ERS-2 (SAR) C-band images (1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000) and 63 ENVISAT (ASAR) C-band images (2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010) were processed using the ISBAS technique and the derived measurements enabled the ...

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“…The region has always been considered tectonically inactive, and hence the earthquakes observed since 1986 (the first observed earthquake being near Assen, but outside the Groningen field) are interpreted to be induced (van Eck et al, 2006;Dost & Haak, 2007). The first registered event attributed to the Groningen field occurred near Middelstum on 5 December 1991 and had a magnitude of M = 2.4 on the Richter scale.…”

Section: Observed Seismicity Historymentioning

confidence: 99%

An empirical relationship for the seismic activity rate of the Groningen gas field

Hettema¹,

Jaarsma²,

Schroot³

et al. 2017

Netherlands Journal of Geosciences

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The Groningen field is the largest onshore gas field in Europe. Continuous production since 1963 has led to induced seismicity starting in the early 1990s. Production measures aimed at lowering the level of seismicity have been implemented since 2014. In this paper we start from an empirical relationship between the cumulative number of seismic events and cumulative gas production. We show that a better way to analyse the data is to relate the ratio of activity rate over production rate versus the cumulative production, such that the model parameters and their uncertainty can be determined. This also allows us to make predictions including the confidence intervals.Using this model, we first performed regression analysis based on the larger seismic catalogue which includes all recorded events with a magnitude of 1.3 and larger, because we consider this value to be the magnitude of completeness since 1995. We have also performed regression analysis based on a smaller seismic catalogue consisting of all events with a magnitude of 1.5 and larger. This was done in order to be able to compare our forecast with forecasts performed by others. Our prediction for 2016, based on the seismic catalogue of all events with a magnitude of M ≥ 1.5 (using only the events recorded before 2016), was 16 ± 8 events. By the end of 2016, 13 such events had been recorded.We discuss a number of factors which may influence the predictive power of the derived relationship and which require further study. For instance, we consider the delay between production and earthquakes which increases with decreasing reservoir pressure. In addition, the effect of seasonal fluctuation in Groningen production should be considered. Future work can be done to include these effects in the empirical model. We also investigated the challenges related to the applicability of the analysis to sub-regions of the Groningen field.

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Seismic hazard due to small-magnitude, shallow-source, induced earthquakes in The Netherlands

Cited by 119 publications

References 31 publications

Development of seismicity and probabilistic hazard assessment for the Groningen gas field

Development of seismicity and probabilistic hazard assessment for the Groningen gas field

Monitoring land motion due to natural gas extraction: Validation of the Intermittent SBAS (ISBAS) DInSAR algorithm over gas fields of North Holland, the Netherlands

An empirical relationship for the seismic activity rate of the Groningen gas field

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