Seismic hazard assessment of Kashmir and Kangra valley region, Western Himalaya, India

Abstract

A complete earthquake catalogue of the Western Himalaya (latitudes 30 N-36 N and longitudes 72 E-78 E) for the period of 1501-2010 has been compiled with earthquake magnitude computed in moment magnitude (Mw) scale. Pre-and early twentieth century records of earthquake damage have been documented from rare and out of print publications. Seismotectonics and seismic hazard for Kohistan arc, Kashmir-Hazara Syntaxis, Nanga-Parbat (Western Syntaxis), Karakoram and Himachal Himalaya are discussed with special reference to 1905 Kangra and 2005 Muzaffarabad earthquakes. Analyses of spatio-temporal variation in b-value from the region indicate significant precursor prior to the 2005 Muzaffarabad earthquake; progressive rise of background b-value observed and the main shock locates close to relative high b-value domains. Regions surrounding the location of the 1905 Kangra earthquake also display such high b-value for the period of 2005-2010 that calls for closer scrutiny. Temporal analysis of b-value from the epicentral block of Muzaffarabad earthquake clearly showed a high-low b-value couplet of 1.45-0.72, which may be treated as a typical precursor before an imminent large earthquake. Gumbel extreme value statistics indicate probability of occurrence of an event of Mw > 7.0 within 50 years in the region.

Coulomb Stress Modeling and Seismicity in the Western Himalaya, India Since 1905: Implications for the Incomplete Ruptures of the Main Himalayan Thrust

“…The white solid rectangle shows the fault rupture geometry. The recent relocated seismicity from July 2009 to April 2018 along with Mw > 5.0 (Mukhopadhya and Dasgupta, 2015) is shown by black and red solid circles in map view. The inset figure in the map view (left bottom corner) shows the bar graph plot from linear regression analysis between coulomb stress change and the corresponding seismicity distribution in the area.…”

“…The 1991 earthquake has likely transferred stress to the MHT in the up‐dip direction and has contributed to the present‐day stressing of the MHT, which in turn influenced the rupture kinematics of the 1991 event. Since all the stress in the region may have been released by an Mw 8.3 earthquake in 1803 (Mukhopadhaya & Dasgupta, 2015), the MHT is thus a favorable candidate to host a major earthquake in the future. The MHT below the MCT mainly dips at a shallow dip angle of approximately 14°–16° (Rawat et al., 2014) in the form of a mid‐crustal ramp in the 1991 Uttarkashi earthquake source zone.…”

Implications of seismic and GNSS strain rates in Himachal, Kashmir and Ladakh

“…The 1905 Kangra earthquake with a focal depth of 15 km was the most damaging earthquake that is located to the Southeast of Kashmir valley 9 . It may be noted that about 20,000 human lives were lost due to this earthquake 4 , 5 , 7 , 8 , 13 . The 1878 Abbottabad earthquake of M w 6.76 4 , 7 caused damage at Abbottabad, Kohat, Peshawar, Attock, Rawalpindi and was strongly felt at Jhelum, Murree, Shimla, Mussoorie.…”

“…It may be noted that about 20,000 human lives were lost due to this earthquake 4 , 5 , 7 , 8 , 13 . The 1878 Abbottabad earthquake of M w 6.76 4 , 7 caused damage at Abbottabad, Kohat, Peshawar, Attock, Rawalpindi and was strongly felt at Jhelum, Murree, Shimla, Mussoorie. Focal mechanisms of earthquakes with magnitude ≥ 5 during the instrumental period from 1964 to till date are plotted in Fig.…”

Interconnected geoscience applied to disaster and risk: case study from SECMOL, Ladakh, N. India

“…For the Ladakh region, particularly within the SECMOL locality, this paper is informed by new and previously published research. Petterson et al (2019) present a multiple hazard assessment of the SECMOL college area from original research, and incorporating the work of hazard geoscientists (such as Bilham et al, 2001;Bilham, 2019;Bhan et al, 2015;Bollinger et al, 2014;District Disaster Management Plan, Leh, 2011;Hobley et al, 2012;Hodgkins, 2013;Mukhopadhyay and Dasgupta, 2015;Petterson, 2018;Rasmussen and Houze, 2012). Petterson et al (2019) report work that forms a sister paper to this one, examining three main hazard types (seismic, flood and landslide).…”