Seismic hazard and risk assessment based on the unified scaling law for earthquakes

Abstract

The Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), that generalizes the GutenbergRichter recurrence relation, has evident implications since any estimate of seismic hazard depends on the size of territory that is used for investigation, averaging, and extrapolation into the future. Therefore, the hazard may differ dramatically when scaled down to the proportion of the area of interest (e.g. a city) from the enveloping area of investigation. In fact, given the observed patterns of distributed seismic activity the results of multi-scale analysis embedded in USLE approach demonstrate that traditional estimations of seismic hazard and risks for cities and urban agglomerations are usually underestimated. Moreover, the USLE approach provides a significant improvement when compared to the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, e.g. the maps resulted from the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Project (GSHAP). In this paper, we apply the USLE approach to evaluating seismic hazard and risks to population of the three territories of different size representing a sub-continental and two different regional scales of analysis, i.e. the Himalayas and surroundings, Lake Baikal, and Central China regions.

Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: Space-Time Dependent Assessment in Friuli-Venezia Giulia Region

“…The results of global and regional studies (Kossobokov and Mazhkenov, 1989;Bak et al, 2002;Nekrasova and Kossobokov, 2002;Nekrosova and Kossobokov, 2003;Nekrosova and Kossobokov, 2005;Nekrasova et al, 2011;Parvez et al, 2014;Nekrasova et al, 2016;Nekrasova et al, 2015) confirm the validity of the USLE at different scales of analysis. The definition of the scales based on the preliminary analysis of the quality of data, the research goal, length dimensions of the regions under investigation and the objects of the investigation in the regions.…”

“…Here x is equivalent to the control parameter η, and the USLE states that the distribution of inter-event times depends only on the value of the variable η. The Scaling coefficient estimation (SCE) algorithm (Nekrasova et al, 2015) is used to obtain the values of USLE coefficients. For a fine scale analysis, timely fit to the latest and best data registration period, from 1995 up to now, the OGS catalog permits calculation of the USLE parameters making use of the five bisecting steps of the spatial hierarchy, from the linear size L 0 1/2°down to L 4 1/32°.…”

Seismic Risk Assessment of the Railway Network of China’s Mainland

“…Generally, risk is quantified as the expected annual impact or loss (Winsemius et al 2013), referring to the relationship between the probability or frequency of the hazard and a measure of the degree of the impact on a given asset (Nekrasova et al 2015):…”

Fractal Seismicity and Seismic Risk

“…In this connection it is of interest to discuss the series of publications (Kossobokov and Nekrasova, 2004;Kossobokov, 2006, 2009;Nekrasova et al, 2011;Nekrasova et al, 2015;Kossobokov and Soloviev, 2018] to be referred to as [К+] in what follows. These publications stress the importance of taking "the fractal nature of earthquakes" into account.…”