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National Laboratory is an equal opportunity employer.ii Scope and OrganizationThis report was developed by a team of analysts at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, with Argonne National Laboratory contributing the transportation section, and is a DOE EPSA product and part of a series of "baseline" reports intended to inform the second installment of the Quadrennial Energy Review (QER 1.2). QER 1.2 provides a comprehensive review of the nation's electricity system and cover the current state and key trends related to the electricity system, including generation, transmission, distribution, grid operations and planning, and end use. The baseline reports provide an overview of elements of the electricity system. This report focuses on end uses, electricity consumption, electric energy efficiency, distributed energy resources (DERs) (such as demand response, distributed generation, and distributed storage), and evaluation, measurement, and verification (EM&V) methods for energy efficiency and DERs.Chapter 1 provides context for the report and an overview of electricity consumption across all market sectors, summarizes trends for energy efficiency and DERs and their impact on electricity sales, and highlights the benefits of these resources as well as barriers to their adoption. Lastly it summarizes policies, regulations, and programs that address these barriers, highlighting crosscutting approaches, from resource standards to programs for utility customers to performance contracting.Chapters 2 through 5 characterize end uses, electricity consumption, and energy efficiency for the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors as well as electrification of the transportation sector. Chapter 6 addresses DERs-demand response, distributed generation, and distributed storage.Several chapters in this report include appendices with additional supporting tables, figures, and technical detail. In addition, the appendix also includes a separate section that discusses current and evolving EM&V practices for energy efficiency and DERs, approaches for conducting reliable and costeffective evaluation, and trends likely to affect future EM&V practices. Description of Energy Models aUnless otherwise noted, this report provides projections between the present-day and 2040 using the "EPSA Side Case," a scenario developed using a version of the Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Since the EPSA Side Case was needed for this and other EPSA baseline reports in advance of the completion of EIA's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2016, it uses data from EIA's AEO 2015 Reference Case, the most recent AEO available at the time. However, since AEO 2015 did not include some significant policy and technology developments that occurred during 2015, the EPSA Side Case was designed to reflect these changes.The EPSA Side Case scenario was constructed using EPSA-NEMs, b a version of the same integrated energy system model used by EIA. The EPSA Side Case input assumptions were based mainly on the final ...
National Laboratory is an equal opportunity employer.ii Scope and OrganizationThis report was developed by a team of analysts at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, with Argonne National Laboratory contributing the transportation section, and is a DOE EPSA product and part of a series of "baseline" reports intended to inform the second installment of the Quadrennial Energy Review (QER 1.2). QER 1.2 provides a comprehensive review of the nation's electricity system and cover the current state and key trends related to the electricity system, including generation, transmission, distribution, grid operations and planning, and end use. The baseline reports provide an overview of elements of the electricity system. This report focuses on end uses, electricity consumption, electric energy efficiency, distributed energy resources (DERs) (such as demand response, distributed generation, and distributed storage), and evaluation, measurement, and verification (EM&V) methods for energy efficiency and DERs.Chapter 1 provides context for the report and an overview of electricity consumption across all market sectors, summarizes trends for energy efficiency and DERs and their impact on electricity sales, and highlights the benefits of these resources as well as barriers to their adoption. Lastly it summarizes policies, regulations, and programs that address these barriers, highlighting crosscutting approaches, from resource standards to programs for utility customers to performance contracting.Chapters 2 through 5 characterize end uses, electricity consumption, and energy efficiency for the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors as well as electrification of the transportation sector. Chapter 6 addresses DERs-demand response, distributed generation, and distributed storage.Several chapters in this report include appendices with additional supporting tables, figures, and technical detail. In addition, the appendix also includes a separate section that discusses current and evolving EM&V practices for energy efficiency and DERs, approaches for conducting reliable and costeffective evaluation, and trends likely to affect future EM&V practices. Description of Energy Models aUnless otherwise noted, this report provides projections between the present-day and 2040 using the "EPSA Side Case," a scenario developed using a version of the Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Since the EPSA Side Case was needed for this and other EPSA baseline reports in advance of the completion of EIA's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2016, it uses data from EIA's AEO 2015 Reference Case, the most recent AEO available at the time. However, since AEO 2015 did not include some significant policy and technology developments that occurred during 2015, the EPSA Side Case was designed to reflect these changes.The EPSA Side Case scenario was constructed using EPSA-NEMs, b a version of the same integrated energy system model used by EIA. The EPSA Side Case input assumptions were based mainly on the final ...
Extreme weather events become more frequent and severe due to climate change. Although energy efficiency technologies can influence thermal resilience of buildings, they are traditionally studied separately, and their interconnections are rarely quantified. This study developed a methodology of modeling and analysis to provide insights into the nexus of thermal resilience and energy efficiency of buildings. We conducted a case study of a real nursing home in Florida, where 12 patients died during Hurricane Irma in 2017 due to HVAC system power loss, to understand and quantify how passive and active energy efficiency measures (EEMs) can improve thermal resilience to reduce heat-exposure risk of patients. Results show that passive measures of opening windows and doors for natural ventilation, as well as miscellaneous load reduction, are very effective in eliminating the extreme dangerous occasions. However, to maintain safe conditions, active measures such as on-site power generators and thermal storage are also needed. The nursing home was further studied by changing its location to two other cities: San Francisco (mild climate) and Chicago (cold winter and hot summer). Results revealed that the EEMs' impacts on thermal resilience vary significantly by climate and building characteristics. The study also estimated the costs of EEMs to help stakeholders prioritize the measures. Passive measures that may not save energy may greatly improve thermal resilience, and thus should be considered in building design or retrofit. Findings from this study indicate energy efficiency technologies should be evaluated not only by their energy savings performance but also by their influence on a building's resilience to extreme weather events.
Executive SummaryRate-based emissions standards (or emissions intensity standards), which impose a limit on the rate (or intensity) of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from power plants (e.g., tons CO 2 per MWh), have emerged as a policy type of interest for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission from the power sector. Rate-based standards require that the rate of emissions from covered power plants is less than or equal to a pre-determined intensity target. One important effect of rate-based standards is that, in addition to encouraging reductions in GHG emissions by creating an implicit tax on carbon emissions, they also create an incentive for generation output. This implicit incentive for generation, often referred to as an "output subsidy," has two important consequences. First, if the standard only applies to sources of generation and does not credit energy savings from efficiency 1 measures, the output subsidy is only received by generation facilities. As a result, the standard creates a disproportionate incentive for investment in generation-based options for emissions reductions, such as fuel switching or increased renewable generation, relative to the incentive for end-use energy efficiency options. Second, the output subsidy lowers the marginal cost of generation, which can lead to reduced electricity prices relative to an optimally designed mass-based policy or equivalent carbon tax, ultimately reducing the value of energy efficiency measures to end-users. Given that energy efficiency measures have been widely recognized as a low-to negative-cost option for reducing emissions, as states or other entities consider alternative policy options for reducing GHGs, it is important to understand the potential effects of alternative policies on the incentives for investment in energy efficiency measures, and to identify design options to mitigate any economic inefficiencies in the incentives.In this report, we examine and compare how tradable mass-based polices and tradable rate-based policies create different incentives for energy efficiency investments. Through a generalized demonstration and set of examples, we show that as a result of the output subsidy they create, traditional rate-based policies, those that do not credit energy savings from efficiency measures, reduce the incentive for investment in energy efficiency measures relative to an optimally designed mass-based policy or equivalent carbon tax. We then show that this reduced incentive can be partially addressed by modifying the rate-based policy such that electricity savings from energy efficiency measures are treated as a source of zero-carbon generation within the framework of the standard, or equivalently, by assigning avoided emissions credit to the electricity savings at the rate of the intensity target. These approaches result in an extension of the output subsidy to efficiency measures and eliminate the distortion between supply-side and demand-side options for GHG emissions reduction. However, these approaches do not address electricity p...
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