Sediment generation and delivery from large historic landslides in the Southern Alps, New Zealand

Korup, Oliver; McSaveney, Mauri; Davies, Timothy R. H.

doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2004.01.001

Cited by 190 publications

(171 citation statements)

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“…Evidently, it is prudent to anticipate widespread substantial aggradation of flood plains and alluvial fans following an Alpine Fault earthquake. Korup et al (2004) estimated that net sediment delivery rates from 3 large landslides within the Southern Alps ranged from 10 −3 -10 −4 km 3 a −1 ; applying this rate to the aftermath of an Alpine Fault earthquake suggests that aggradation may continue for many hundreds of years. This time is longer than the average recurrence interval for the Alpine Fault, however, suggesting that the landscape is permanently aggrading.…”

Section: Aggradationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review Article: Potential geomorphic consequences of a future great (Mw = 8.0+) Alpine Fault earthquake, South Island, New Zealand

Robinson

Davies

2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The Alpine Fault in New Zealand's South Island has not sustained a large magnitude earthquake since ca. AD 1717. The time since this rupture is close to the average inferred recurrence interval of the fault (∼ 300 yr). The Alpine Fault is therefore expected to generate a large magnitude earthquake in the near future. Previous ruptures of this fault are inferred to have generated M w = 8.0 or greater earthquakes and to have resulted in, amongst other geomorphic hazards, large-scale landslides and landslide dams throughout the Southern Alps. There is currently 85 % probability that the Alpine Fault will cause a M w = 8.0+ earthquake within the next 100 yr. While the seismic hazard is fairly well understood, that of the consequential geomorphic activity is less well studied, and these consequences are explored herein. They are expected to include landsliding, landslide damming, dam-break flooding, debris flows, river aggradation, liquefaction, and landslidegenerated lake/fiord tsunami. Using evidence from previous events within New Zealand as well as analogous international examples, we develop first-order estimates of the likely magnitude and possible locations of the geomorphic effects associated with earthquakes. Landsliding is expected to affect an area > 30 000 km 2 and involve > 1 billion m 3 of material. Some tens of landslide dams are expected to occur in narrow, steep-sided gorges in the affected region. Debris flows will be generated in the first long-duration rainfall after the earthquake and will continue to occur for several years as rainfall (re)mobilises landslide material. In total more than 1000 debris flows are likely to be generated at some time after the earthquake. Aggradation of up to 3 m will cover an area > 125 km 2 and is likely to occur on many West Coast alluvial fans and floodplains. The impact of these effects will be felt across the entire South Island and is likely to continue for several decades.

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Section: Aggradationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review Article: Potential geomorphic consequences of a future great (Mw = 8.0+) Alpine Fault earthquake, South Island, New Zealand

Robinson

Davies

2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Caine, 1980;Dhakal and Sidle, 2004;Guzzetti, 2008, Leonarduzzi et al, 2017, in which large quantities of sediment may be instantly released to 20 the river network (e.g. Korup et al, 2004;Bennet et al, 2012). Conversely, the physical processes of icemelt-driven erosion and sediment transport are more gradual and continuous.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Caine, 1980;Dhakal and Sidle, 2004;Guzzetti, 2008;Leonarduzzi et al, 2017), which can mobilize large amounts of fine sediment (e.g. Korup et al, 2004;Bennett et al, 2012) resulting in very high suspended sediment concentrations in the receiving streams. Together with erosional processes along hillslopes, which are strongly related to rainfall intensity (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydroclimatic control on suspended sediment dynamics of a regulated Alpine catchment: a conceptual approach

Costa¹,

Anghileri²,

Molnár³

2018

Preprint

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Abstract.We analyse the control of hydroclimatic factors on suspended sediment concentration (SSC) in Alpine catchments by differentiating among the potential contributions of erosion and suspended sediment transport driven by erosive rainfall, defined as liquid precipitation over snow free surfaces, icemelt from glacierized areas, and snowmelt on hillslopes. We account for the potential impact of hydropower by intercepting sediment fluxes originated in areas diverted to hydropower reservoirs, and by considering the contribution of hydropower releases to SSC. We obtain the hydroclimatic variables from 10 daily gridded datasets of precipitation and temperature, implementing a degree-day model to simulate spatially distributed snow accumulation and snow-ice melt. We estimate hydropower releases by a conceptual approach with a unique virtual reservoir regulated on the basis of a target-volume function, representing normal reservoir operating conditions throughout a hydrological year. An Iterative Input Selection algorithm is used to identify the variables with the highest predictive power for SSC, their explained variance, and characteristic time lags. On this basis, we develop a hydroclimatic multivariate rating 15 curve (HMRC) which accounts for the contributions of the most relevant hydroclimatic input variables mentioned above. We calibrate the HMRC with a gradient-based nonlinear optimization method and we compare its performance with a traditional discharge-based rating curve. We apply the approach in the upper Rhone Basin, a large Swiss Alpine catchment, heavily regulated by hydropower. Our results show that the three hydroclimatic processes -erosive rainfall, icemelt, and snowmeltare significant predictors of mean daily SSC, while hydropower release does not have a significant explanatory power for 20 SSC. The characteristic time lags of the hydroclimatic variables correspond to the typical flow concentration times of the basin. Despite not including discharge, the HMRC performs better than the traditional rating curve in reproducing SSC seasonality, especially during validation at the daily scale. While erosive rainfall determines the daily variability of SSC and extremes, icemelt generates the highest SSC per unit of runoff, and represents the largest contribution to total suspended sediment yield. Finally, we show that the HMRC is capable of simulating climate-driven changes in fine sediment dynamics 25 in Alpine catchments. In fact, HMRC can reproduce the changes in SSC in the past 40 years in the Rhone Basin connected to air temperature rise, even though the simulated changes are more gradual than those observed. The approach presented is this paper, based on the analysis of the hydroclimatic control on suspended sediment concentration, allows the exploration of climate-driven changes in fine sediment dynamics in Alpine catchments. The approach can be applied to any Alpine catchment with a pluvio-glacio-nival hydrological regime and adequate hydroclimatic datasets. 30Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., ...

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“…Las cicatrices que fueron sustancialmente reforestadas o que se estimó que fueron cubiertas por vegetación por más de 17 años, no fueron incluidas en la cartografía del inventario. Las medidas del área de deslizamientos (A) y el volumen (V) se utilizó para establecer y alimentar una relación empírica que tomó la forma de una ley de potencia: Korup et al, 2004;Kalderon-Asael et al, 2008;Guzzetti et al, 2009), con un exponente de escala de α = 1.004. Esta relación aplicada al área de los deslizamientos cartografiados en el inventario se utilizó para estimar el volumen total de material potencial que los deslizamientos pueden aportar al cauce.…”

Section: Inventario Multitemporal Análisis De Susceptibilidad Y Estiunclassified

Inventario multitemporal, análisis de susceptibilidad y estimación de volumen de deslizamientos en el flanco SW del volcán Pico de Orizaba, Puebla-Veracruz

Paulín

Bursik

Pouget

et al. 2014

BSGM

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Inventario multitemporal, análisis de susceptibilidad y estimación de volumen de deslizamientos 343 ResumenEste artículo provee un panorama general de la investigación en curso del Instituto de Geografía de la UNAM, que busca crear una metodología integral para el desarrollo de cartografía de inventarios multitemporales, de susceptibilidad y estimación de volúmenes de deslizamientos mediante el uso de Sistemas de Información Geográfica (SIG). La metodología se establece para terrenos volcáni-cos, donde deslizamientos superficiales y flujos de escombros son frecuentes a lo largo de las laderas y los sistemas fluviales de los volcanes. La cuenca del Río Chiquito-Barranca del Muerto en el flanco suroeste del volcán Pico de Orizaba se ha seleccionado como caso de estudio para caracterizar las áreas que son propensas a la inestabilidad de las laderas en terrenos volcánicos. La ocurrencia de deslizamientos se determinó a través de un inventario de deslizamientos creado a partir de fotos aéreas multitemporales y trabajo de campo. En este estudio se modela (simula) la susceptibilidad a deslizamientos usando un modelo cartográfico-hidrológico (Stability Index MAPping (SINMAP)) y un modelo estadístico (Regresión Logística Múltiple (RLM)). Ambos modelos están integrados dentro de la aplicación LOGISNET (desarrollado mediante el uso de macros (AML) del sistema de información geográfica (SIG) ArcInfo Workstation. Su implementación mostró que ambos modelos poseen un grado moderado de concordancia con el inventario de deslizamientos, prefiriéndose la RLM para futuros análisis por su flexibilidad de incluir otras variables. Para la estimación de volúmenes de materiales aportados por los deslizamientos a los cauces, se seleccionaron los deslizamientos superficiales. El área y volumen de deslizamientos superficiales individuales fueron obtenidos en campo y a través de la base de datos del inventario de deslizamientos, para establecer una relación empírica: área-volumen. La relación se utilizó para el uso de una ley de potencias con la que se estimó el volumen total de deslizamientos de tierra en el área de estudio. Los resultados son importantes para comprender la evolución a largo plazo del sistema fluvial en el flanco suroeste del volcán Pico de Orizaba, y apoyar el desarrollo de una metodología útil para la elaboración de inventarios, el análisis de la susceptibilidad y estimación de volúmenes de deslizamientos en terrenos volcánicos.

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Sediment generation and delivery from large historic landslides in the Southern Alps, New Zealand

Cited by 190 publications

References 26 publications

Review Article: Potential geomorphic consequences of a future great (<i>M</i><sub>w</sub> = 8.0+) Alpine Fault earthquake, South Island, New Zealand

Review Article: Potential geomorphic consequences of a future great (<i>M</i><sub>w</sub> = 8.0+) Alpine Fault earthquake, South Island, New Zealand

Hydroclimatic control on suspended sediment dynamics of a regulated Alpine catchment: a conceptual approach

Inventario multitemporal, análisis de susceptibilidad y estimación de volumen de deslizamientos en el flanco SW del volcán Pico de Orizaba, Puebla-Veracruz

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Sediment generation and delivery from large historic landslides in the Southern Alps, New Zealand

Cited by 190 publications

References 26 publications

Review Article: Potential geomorphic consequences of a future great (&lt;i&gt;M&lt;/i&gt;&lt;sub&gt;w&lt;/sub&gt; = 8.0+) Alpine Fault earthquake, South Island, New Zealand

Review Article: Potential geomorphic consequences of a future great (&lt;i&gt;M&lt;/i&gt;&lt;sub&gt;w&lt;/sub&gt; = 8.0+) Alpine Fault earthquake, South Island, New Zealand

Hydroclimatic control on suspended sediment dynamics of a regulated Alpine catchment: a conceptual approach

Inventario multitemporal, análisis de susceptibilidad y estimación de volumen de deslizamientos en el flanco SW del volcán Pico de Orizaba, Puebla-Veracruz

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Review Article: Potential geomorphic consequences of a future great (<i>M</i><sub>w</sub> = 8.0+) Alpine Fault earthquake, South Island, New Zealand

Review Article: Potential geomorphic consequences of a future great (<i>M</i><sub>w</sub> = 8.0+) Alpine Fault earthquake, South Island, New Zealand