Secularism and Fertility Worldwide

Abstract

This study proposes and explores a new fertility determinant: societal secularism. Using country-level data from multiple sources ( n = 181) and multilevel data from 58 countries in the World Values Survey ( n = 83,301), the author documents a strong negative relationship between societal secularism and both country-level fertility rates and individual-level fertility behavior. Secularism, even in small amounts, is associated with population stagnation or even decline absent substantial immigration, whereas highly religious countries have higher fertility rates that promote population growth. This country-level pattern is driven by more than aggregate lower fertility of secular individuals. In fact, societal secularism is a better predictor of highly religious individuals’ fertility behavior than that of secular individuals, and this pattern is largely a function of cultural values related to gender, reproduction, and autonomy in secular societies. Beyond their importance for the religious composition of the world population, the patterns presented in this study are relevant to key fertility theories and could help account for below-replacement fertility.

Fill the Earth and Subdue It: Christian Nationalism, Ethno‐Religious Threat, and Nationalist Pronatalism

“…The supposed link between fertility and changing value systems is not without warrant, though the association shown in research thus far is correlational rather than causal. Indeed, Schnabel (2021) demonstrates that the secular character of the society itself is associated with individual‐level fertility. In societies that are more secular, both secular and religious persons alike tend to have fewer children.…”

“…But there are also clear concerns about ethno-racial threat in the form of immigrants, as well as concerns about a waning collective commitment to a traditionalist (Christian) culture that merges family, values, and patriotism. To be sure, religious commitment and conservatism are powerfully linked with fertility expectations and practice at the national and individual levels (Edgell 2006;Hayford and Philip Morgan 2008;Inglehart 2021;Perry 2017;Perry and Schleifer 2019;Schnabel 2021). But we propose that the connection between religion and nationalist pronatalist sentiment is more nuanced, being more about ethno-cultural dominance and perceived threat.…”