Secular variations of monthly severity rating on the Croatian Adriatic coast during the forest fire season

Vučetić, Marko; Vučetić, Višnja; Španjol, Željko; Barčić, Damir; Rosavec, Roman; Mandić, Andrej

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2006.08.280

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…The projected increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation in the MDN zone will also significantly decrease the soil‐water content and water runoff to the Adriatic coast, resulting in negative consequences for the vegetation and agricultural production therein (Vučetić & Vučetić, 2000). The higher proportion of dry days during the period from April to June indicates a likely earlier onset of the wildfire season and an increased fire risk during summer (Vučetić et al ., 2006) as a consequence of longer summer dry spells (Vučetić, 1998). The impact of climate change on wine quality will be very high, as shown by Huglin indices (Fig.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agroclimatic conditions in Europe under climate change

Trnka

Olesen

Kersebaum

et al. 2011

Global Change Biology

345

245

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To date, projections of European crop yields under climate change have been based almost entirely on the outputs of crop-growth models. While this strategy can provide good estimates of the effects of climatic factors, soil conditions and management on crop yield, these models usually do not capture all of the important aspects related to crop management, or the relevant environmental factors. Moreover, crop-simulation studies often have severe limitations with respect to the number of crops covered or the spatial extent. The present study based on agroclimatic índices, pro vides a general picture of agroclimatic conditions in western and central Europe (study área lays between 8.5°W-27°E and 37-63.5°N), which allows for a more general assessment of climate-change impacts. The results obtained from the analysis of data from 86 different sites were clustered according to an environmental stratification of Europe. The analysis was carried for the baseline and future climate conditions (time horizons of 2030, 2050 and with a global temperature increase of 5 °C) based on outputs of three global circulation models. For many environmental zones, there were clear signs of deteriorating agroclimatic condition in terms of increased drought stress and shortening of the active growing season, which in some regions become increasingly squeezed between a cold winter and a hot summer. For most zones the projections show a marked need for adaptive measures to either increase soil water availability or drought resistance of crops. This study concludes that rainfed agriculture is likely to face more climate-related risks, although the analyzed agroclimatic indicators will probably remain at a level that should permit rainfed production. However, results suggests that there is a risk of increasing number of extremely unfavorable years in many climate zones, which might result in higher interannual yield variability and constitute a challenge for proper crop management.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agroclimatic conditions in Europe under climate change

Trnka

Olesen

Kersebaum

et al. 2011

Global Change Biology

345

245

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…The fire danger classification developed in this study will be proposed for official use if it is found to perform better than compared methods. The CFFWIS is used in the neighbouring Croatia (Vučetić et al 2006), but to our knowledge, this study is the first attempt at using the CFFWIS in an environment more typical of central Europe. The importance of fire danger rating will increase in sub-and non-Mediterranean regions as fire activity increases and expands northwards with climate change.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Canadian fire weather index system and wildfire activity in the Karst forest management area, Slovenia

2011

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The Canadian fire weather index system (CFFWIS) has been adopted for fire danger rating throughout Europe as part of the European Forest Fire Information System. However, its performance has not been thoroughly assessed, especially in environments less prone to fire. In this study, we characterised fire activity between 1995 and 2009 in the sub-Mediterranean Karst forest management area of SW Slovenia. Five fire danger classes (very low, low, moderate, high and very high) were derived from percentile analysis of the CFFWIS Fire Weather Index. These classes were found to be related with fire activity descriptors. Logistic regression prediction of fire-days based on CFFWIS indices had low accuracy, and better discrimination was achieved by classification tree modelling. Fire activity was found to be driven by current weather conditions rather than by drought. Our findings highlight the potential of fire danger rating to guide fire management but also the limitations imposed by relatively low incidence of fire and the spatial scale of analysis.

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“…Although very distinct, both regions experience extreme fire weather such as heatwaves, drought, and episodes of strong wind in combination with complex topography, which includes mountains and hills backing a rugged coastline [1]. Moreover, recent studies detect an influence of climate change on the fire regime in both countries [2][3][4][5][6][7], such as higher fire danger, the extension of fire seasons, and an increase in the number of extreme events per season. As future projections show that such changes in fire regime will maintain this trend [8,9], new meteorological research on wildfires can help us better understand this complex phenomenon in order to improve fire weather forecasts as well as fire management in both regions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of Meteorological Drivers of Two Large Coastal Slope-Land Wildfire Events in Croatia and South-East Australia

Tomašević

Vučetić

Cheung³

et al. 2023

Atmosphere

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Understanding the relationship between fire behavior and the driving weather conditions is critical for fire management and long-term fire risk assessment. In this study, we focus on two wildfire events: the Split wildfire in Croatia and the Forcett–Dunalley wildfire in Tasmania, Australia. The antecedent weather in both events included extremely dry conditions and higher-than-average air temperatures in the months prior to the events. The synoptic patterns in both events consisted of a large surface pressure gradient, which generated strong wind, driving the fire’s spread. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was utilized to simulate fire weather conditions during the development of the two events. In the innermost domain of WRF, resolution is 500 m with explicit moisture calculation only, and there are 66 vertical levels, with about 20 of them to resolve the boundary layer. The WRF simulations are well verified by station observations, including upper-level wind speeds. The convergence line pattern in the Tasmanian event, which was conducive to intense plume development, has been well simulated. Only a slight discrepancy was identified in the simulation of the coastal change in wind direction in the Croatian event. It is identified that in the Split case, bura wind was highly coupled with an upper-level trough, which induced subsidence of the upper-level dry and cold air to the surface, causing rapid drying of the fuel. During the Forcett–Dunalley fire, the atmosphere was unstable, which enabled deep pyrocumulonimbus development. In general, the development from ignition to the timing of the most extreme fire intensity in both events was largely determined by the evolution of the surface to upper-level meteorological drivers. While these extreme meteorological conditions would impact fire-fighting strategies such as aircraft operations, a model-based estimate of the high-risk areas is critical. Our findings would also benefit an estimate of the climatology of fire events with similar behavior and thus a long-term fire risk assessment.

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Secular variations of monthly severity rating on the Croatian Adriatic coast during the forest fire season

Cited by 4 publications

References 0 publications

Agroclimatic conditions in Europe under climate change

Agroclimatic conditions in Europe under climate change

The Canadian fire weather index system and wildfire activity in the Karst forest management area, Slovenia

Comparison of Meteorological Drivers of Two Large Coastal Slope-Land Wildfire Events in Croatia and South-East Australia

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