Secular trends in chronic respiratory diseases mortality in Brazil, Russia, China, and South Africa: a comparative study across main BRICS countries from 1990 to 2019

Bai, Jianjun; Zhao, Yudi; Yang, Donghui; Ma, Yudiyang; Yu, Chuanhua

doi:10.1186/s12889-021-12484-z

Cited by 21 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 70 publications

(62 reference statements)

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“…Consistent with previous studies (16)(17)(18), China or India tended to be number one in absolute numbers of prevalence, mortality, and DALY due to their huge population base. When the data on mortality and DALY were age-standardized, Nepal's and Papua New Guinea's top two spots were highlighted.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

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Global, regional, and national burden of chronic respiratory diseases and associated risk factors, 1990–2019: Results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Chen

Zhou

et al. 2023

Front. Med.

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BackgroundThe burden of chronic respiratory diseases has changed over the three decades. This study aims to describe the spatiotemporal trends of prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) due to chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) worldwide during 1990–2019 using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019).MethodsThe prevalence, mortality, and DALY attributable to CRDs and risk factors from 1990 to 2019 were estimated. We also assessed the driving factors and potentiality for improvement with decomposition and frontier analyses, respectively.ResultsIn 2019, 454.56 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 417.35–499.14] million individuals worldwide had a CRD, showing a 39·8% increase compared with 1990. Deaths due to CRDs were 3.97 (95%UI: 3.58–4.30) million, and DALY in 2019 was 103.53 (95%UI: 94.79–112.27) million. Declines by average annual percent change (AAPC) were observed in age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR) (0.64% decrease), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) (1.92%), and age-standardized DALY rates (ASDR) (1.72%) globally and in 5 socio-demographic index (SDI) regions. Decomposition analyses represented that the increase in overall CRDs DALY was driven by aging and population growth. However, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) was the leading driver of increased DALY worldwide. Frontier analyses witnessed significant improvement opportunities at all levels of the development spectrum. Smoking remained a leading risk factor (RF) for mortality and DALY, although it showed a downward trend. Air pollution, a growing factor especially in relatively low SDI regions, deserves our attention.ConclusionOur study clarified that CRDs remain the leading causes of prevalence, mortality, and DALY worldwide, with growth in absolute numbers but declines in several age-standardized estimators since 1990. The estimated contribution of risk factors to mortality and DALY demands the need for urgent measures to improve them.Systematic review registrationhttp://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

“…For example, Singapore's efforts and gains were seen in the past 30 years, with decreased AAPC of all rates (ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR). China's efforts were laudable concurrently ( 16 , 19 ), although its absolute value was still high and the AAPC of ASDR dropped significantly in the top three.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global, regional, and national burden of chronic respiratory diseases and associated risk factors, 1990–2019: Results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Chen

Zhou

et al. 2023

Front. Med.

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“…During the study period, China has gradually expanded the coverage of health insurance [ 8 , 36 ]. The enhanced diagnosis and treatment techniques, better access to basic public health services, the new rural cooperative medical system, and the reform of COPD healthcare costs have promoted the improvement of COPD death burden in Wuhan [ 37 ]. However, the smoking situation in Wuhan is still very serious.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Secular Trends of Mortality and Years of Life Lost Due to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in Wuhan, China from 2010 to 2019: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Guo

Bai

Zhang

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been an important public health issue in China. This study aimed to analyze the temporal trends in mortality and years of life lost (YLL) from COPD, and explore the effects of age, period, and cohort in Wuhan, China from 2010 to 2019. Methods: Data were collected from the cause of death surveillance system in Wuhan. Age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardized YLL rate (ASYR) and the estimated annual percent changes (EAPC) were calculated to evaluate the temporal trends. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was adopted to estimate the age, period, and cohort effects. Results: From 2010 to 2019, COPD accounted for 26,051.15 deaths and 394,659.58 person years YLL in Wuhan. Recently, the death burden of COPD in Wuhan has somewhat improved, especially after 2015, with declining trends in ASMR and ASYR. Additionally, the ASMR and ASYR of COPD was higher in males. And these of males showed the overall upward trends, with EAPCs of 1.06 (0.13, 2.00) and 1.21 (0.12, 2.31), respectively, while females showed downward trends since 2010. According to APC model, the age effect of COPD increased with age, and the cohort risk ratios (RRs) followed the overall downward trends. Period RRs for the Wuhan population generally tended to rise and then fall, with females showing a clear downward trend after 2015, while period RRs for males maintained an upward trend throughout the study period. Conclusions: Recently, the death burden from COPD in Wuhan has improved, especially after 2015, with improvements in ASMR, ASYR and period RRs. Sex differences still exist. COPD posed a greater threat to the elderly, especially males. Public health managers should continue to execute more targeted programs to lessen the death burden of COPD in Wuhan.

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“…Therefore, public health measures to reduce childhood asthma are needed, such as integrating childhood asthma diagnosis into primary healthcare for children and adolescents, providing pregnant women with vitamin D or fish oil supplements (or both), controlling childhood obesity, and providing protection for children by regulating immune function [ 43 , 51 – 53 ]. Elderly people in Sichuan have the highest asthma mortality and a high chronic respiratory disease mortality [ 54 ]. Generally, there is a greater cumulative effect of risk factors and a greater probability of the coexistence of multiple diseases, which may increase asthma mortality in elderly people [ 55 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends and age-period-cohort effects on incidence and mortality of asthma in Sichuan Province, China, 1990–2019

2022

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Background The provinces in western China have undergone rapid urbanization and industrialization, particularly since the Chinese government launched the Great Western Development Strategy in 2000. We examined the time trends and contributions of age, period, and cohort effects to asthma incidence and mortality in Sichuan Province, a populous province in western China, from 1990 to 2019. Methods The data of Sichuan Province from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. Trends and average annual percentage change were estimated using joinpoint regression. Age, period, and cohort effects were estimated using an age-period-cohort model with the intrinsic estimator method. Results In the latest period (2015–2019), the highest incidence of asthma was 2004.49/100,000 in children aged < 5 years, and the highest mortality rate was 22.04/100,000 for elderly people aged > 80 years. Age-standardized rates generally remained stable (95% confidence interval [CI] − 0.21, 0.11) for incidence and declined by 4.74% (95% CI − 5.09, − 4.39) for mortality over the last 30 years. After controlling for other effects, the age effect on asthma showed that the incidence rate ratio (RR) was highest in the < 5 years age group, and the mortality RR was highest in the > 80 years age group. The period effect on incidence and mortality decreased from 1990 to 2019, respectively. A cohort effect was found the incidence RR increased slowly from the early birth cohorts to the later birth cohorts, especially after the 2005 birth cohort, whereas the mortality RR continued to decline. Conclusions There was a significant effect of older age on the asthma mortality rate over the last 30 years, and the incidence rate in children aged < 5 years increased. The relative risk of asthma incidence in the later birth cohorts increased. Effective preventive measures and public health policies should be to protect children and elderly people from potentially harmful chronic diseases.

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Secular trends in chronic respiratory diseases mortality in Brazil, Russia, China, and South Africa: a comparative study across main BRICS countries from 1990 to 2019

Cited by 21 publications

References 70 publications

Global, regional, and national burden of chronic respiratory diseases and associated risk factors, 1990–2019: Results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Global, regional, and national burden of chronic respiratory diseases and associated risk factors, 1990–2019: Results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Secular Trends of Mortality and Years of Life Lost Due to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in Wuhan, China from 2010 to 2019: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Trends and age-period-cohort effects on incidence and mortality of asthma in Sichuan Province, China, 1990–2019

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