Secular Labor Reallocation and Business Cycles

Abstract

and numerous seminar and conference participants. This research was conducted with restricted access to Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the BLS or the U.S. government. We are grateful to Jessica Helfand and Michael LoBue of the BLS for their help with the Longitudinal Database. An appendix to the paper is available on the authors' webpages. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peerreviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.

Explaining the Income and Consumption Effects of COVID in India

“…Our work relates more closely to work on smoothing by labor supply on the intensive margin (Moser, 1998) or across sectors (Kochar, 1999;Rose, 2001). Our work also relates closely to the literature on occupational mobility (Moscarini and Thomsson, 2007;Manovskii, 2008, 2009a,b;Groes et al, 2015), how it relates to the business cycle (Carrillo-Tudela and Visschers, 2020), and the collateral consequences of that adaptation (Chodorow-Reich and Wieland, 2020).…”

Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies

“…Economic and financial disruptions like those that have resulted from the pandemic can increase sectoral reallocation, as workers shift from sectors most adversely affected to those less adversely, or favorably, affected (Foster, Grim, and Haltiwanger 2016). But the constraints on mobility resulting from the pandemic, together with the failure, at least in the short term, of job creation to keep pace with job destruction, seem likely to slow the process of reallocation Chodorow-Reich and Wieland 2020). 12 If the COVID-19 pandemic discourages mobility out of agriculture into urban centers, productivity gains from sectoral reallocation may well slow, particularly in LICs (Hale et al 2020;World Bank 2020).…”

Shift-Share Designs: Theory and Inference

“…In seminal papers, Bartik (1991) and Blanchard and Katz (1992) use shift-share strategies to analyze the impact on local labor markets of shifters measured as changes in national sectoral employment. More recently, shift-share strategies have been applied to investigate the local labor market consequences of various observable shocks, including international trade competition (Topalova, 2007(Topalova, , 2010Kovak, 2013;Autor, Dorn and Hanson, 2013;Dix-Carneiro and Kovak, 2017;Pierce and Schott, 2017), credit supply (Greenstone, Mas and Nguyen, 2015), technological change (Acemoglu andRestrepo, 2017, 2018), and industry reallocation (Chodorow-Reich and Wieland, 2018). Shift-share regressors have also been used to study the impact of the same shocks on other outcomes, such as political preferences (Autor et al, 2017a;Che et al, 2017;Colantone and Stanig, 2018), marriage patterns (Autor, Dorn and Hanson, 2018), crime levels (Dix-Carneiro, Soares and Ulyssea, 2017), and innovation (Acemoglu and Linn, 2004;Autor et al, 2017b).…”