Secular increase of seasonal predictability for the 20th century

Kang, In‐Sik; Jin, Emilia Kyung; An, Kyong-Hee

doi:10.1029/2005gl024499

Cited by 12 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…To a certain extent, this will cause weather and climate forecasting to become more difficult. However, on the other hand, the increase of sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the tropical Pacific can enhance the atmospheric seasonal predictability [ Gu and Philander , 1997; Knutson et al , 1997; Kang et al , 2006]. Due to the differences between the responses of atmospheric internal dynamics variability and external forcings to the global warming in different regions, interdecadal variability of atmospheric predictability shows different regional characteristics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends and interdecadal changes of weather predictability during 1950s–1990s

Ding¹,

Li²,

Ha³

2008

J. Geophys. Res.

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[1] To study the atmospheric predictability from the view of nonlinear error growth dynamics, a new approach using the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) is introduced by the authors recently. In this paper, the trends and interdecadal changes of weather predictability limit (WPL) during 1950s-1990s are investigated by employing the NLLE approach. The results show that there exist significant trend changes for WPL over most of the globe. At three different pressure levels in the troposphere (850, 500, and 200 hPa), spatial distribution patterns of linear trend coefficients of WPL are similar. Significant decreasing trends in WPL could be found in the most regions of the northern midlatitudes and Africa, while significant increasing trends in WPL lie in the most regions of the tropical Pacific and southern mid-high latitudes. In the lower stratosphere (50 hPa), the WPL in the whole tropics all shows significant increasing trends, while it displays significant decreasing trends in the most regions of the Antarctic and northern mid-high latitudes. By examining the temporal variations of WPL in detail, we find that the interdecadal changes of WPL in most regions at different levels mainly happen in the 1970s, which is consistent with the significant climate shift occurring in the late 1970s. Trends and interdecadal changes of WPL are found to be well related to those of atmospheric persistence, which in turn are linked to the changes of atmospheric internal dynamics. Further analysis indicates that the changes of atmospheric static stability due to global warming might be one of main causes responsible for the trends and interdecadal changes of atmospheric persistence and predictability in the southern and northern mid-high latitudes. The increased sea surface temperature (SST) variability exerts a stronger external forcing on the tropical Pacific atmosphere that tends to enhance the persistence of tropical Pacific atmosphere. This process appears to be responsible for the increase of atmospheric predictability and persistence in the tropical Pacific since the late 1970s.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends and interdecadal changes of weather predictability during 1950s–1990s

Ding¹,

Li²,

Ha³

2008

J. Geophys. Res.

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“…To a certain extent, this will cause the weather and climate forecasting to become more difficult. But on the other hand, the increase of SST variability over the tropical Pacific can enhance the atmospheric seasonal predictability [ Gu and Philander , 1997; Knutson et al , 1997; Kang et al , 2006]. Due to the differences between the responses of the internal climate variability and external forcings to the global warming in different seasons and different regions, decadal change of climate predictability shows different seasonal and regional characteristics [ Goswami , 2004; Nakaegawa et al , 2004].…”

Section: Indroductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decadal change of January and July persistence of monthly mean 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies

Ding

2008

Geophysical Research Letters

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The decadal variations of January and July persistence of monthly mean 500 hPa geopotential height (GHT) anomalies and associated persistence changes of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical oceans are investigated. January persistence of GHT anomalies in the most tropical regions exhibits a decadal change, with a sharp increase after the mid‐1970s. This increase has been found to be closely associated with the enhanced persistence of SSTA in the equatorial central‐eastern Pacific. July persistence of GHT anomalies in the most tropical regions and Asian regions shows significant decreasing trends between the 1950s and 1990s. The weakened effect of the ENSO on the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) circulation may be a possible reason why July persistence of GHT anomalies in the ISM region has been persistently decreased. The decreased persistence of SSTA in the tropical Indian Ocean, tropical North Pacific and tropical Atlantic possibly contributes to the decrease of July persistence of GHT anomalies in the tropical regions and Asian regions.

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“…The changes of atmospheric general circulation are generally associated with those of the dynamics of atmospheric internal variability, which in turn might change the atmospheric persistence and predictability. Recently, significant decadal changes of persistence and predictability of monthly and seasonal mean circulation have been found in some regions of the tropics and midlatitudes (Goswami 2004;Kang et al 2006;Ding et al 2008). It is also possible that there exist considerable decadal variability and trends in the weather persistence.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Long-Term Trend and Decadal Variability of Persistence of Daily 500-mb Geopotential Height Anomalies during Boreal Winter

Ding

2009

Monthly Weather Review

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An analysis has been made of the trend and decadal variability of persistence of daily 500-mb (hPa) geopotential height anomalies for the winter season. The persistence is measured based on autocorrelations at 1-and 5-day lags (denoted r 1 and r 5 , respectively) and the effective time between independent samples T 0 . The results from linear trend analysis show that there exist significant trends of persistence of daily 500-mb geopotential height anomalies in some regions of the world. The regions with a significant decreasing trend are found to be mainly located at mid-high latitudes of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, while the regions with a significant increasing trend are mainly located in the tropical Pacific Ocean. For other variables including sea level pressure (SLP), 1000-mb height, and 200-mb height, the persistence of daily anomalies also exhibits similar trends in these regions. It is speculated that the enhanced baroclinicity and advection are possibly responsible for the significant downward trend of persistence mainly occurring in the southern and northern mid-high latitudes, while the increased coupling between the atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) could contribute to the increase of persistence in the tropical Pacific. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis based on the 7-yr Gaussian low-pass-filtered series of winter season r 1 and r 5 of 500-mb height (linear trend removed before the low-pass filtering) is presented. The results suggest that there is prominent decadal variability of persistence in some regions of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres and tropics. When compared with r 1 , r 5 has decadal variations with larger magnitude and larger spatial scale. It is found that the decadal variability of persistence is closely related to decadal fluctuations of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.

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Secular increase of seasonal predictability for the 20th century

Cited by 12 publications

References 31 publications

Trends and interdecadal changes of weather predictability during 1950s–1990s

Trends and interdecadal changes of weather predictability during 1950s–1990s

Decadal change of January and July persistence of monthly mean 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies

Long-Term Trend and Decadal Variability of Persistence of Daily 500-mb Geopotential Height Anomalies during Boreal Winter

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