Sectoral Effects of Social Distancing

Barrot, Jean‐Noël; Grassi, Basile; Sauvagnat, Julien

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3569446

Cited by 142 publications

(135 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Our paper complements the burgeoning body of work on the macroeconomic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic (see, among others, Acemoglu et al, 2020;Atkeson, 2020;Alvarez, Argente, and Lippi, 2020;Eichenbaum, Rebelo, and Trabandt, 2020;Glover et al, 2020;Kaplan, Moll, and Violante, 2020;Krueger, Uhlig, and Xie, 2020). Most closely related are Baqaee and Farhi (2020a,b) and Barrot, Grassi, and Sauvagnat (2020), who study the eects of the lockdown on GDP declines in input network economies, and Çakmakl et al (2020), who explore transmission of demand shocks in a small open economy context. Our focus is the international dimension of transmission through global supply chains.…”

Section: Related Literaturesupporting

confidence: 54%

Global Supply Chains in the Pandemic

et al. 2020

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We study the role of global supply chains in the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on GDP growth for 64 countries. We discipline the labor supply shock across sectors and countries using the fraction of work in the sector that can be done from home, interacted with the stringency with which countries imposed lockdown measures. Using the quantitative framework and methods developed in Huo, Levchenko, and Pandalai-Nayar (2020), we show that the average real GDP downturn due to the Covid-19 shock is expected to be-29:6%, with one quarter of the total due to transmission through global supply chains. However, "renationalization" of global supply chains does not in general make countries more resilient to pandemic-induced contractions in labor supply. The average GDP drop would have been-30:2%in a world without trade in inputs and final goods. This is because eliminating reliance on foreign inputs increases reliance on the domestic inputs, which are also disrupted due to nationwide lockdowns. In fact, trade can insulate a country imposing a stringent lockdown from the pandemic-shock, as its foreign inputs are less disrupted than its domestic ones. Finally, unilateral lifting of the lockdowns in the largest economies can contribute as much as 2.5% to GDP growth in some of their smaller trade partners.

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Section: Related Literaturesupporting

confidence: 54%

Global Supply Chains in the Pandemic

et al. 2020

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“…Many countries have therefore resorted to partial or full "lockdown" measures to control the epidemic, severely limiting social and economic interactions among their citizens. Although lockdowns may help countries to keep the number of infections under control [2], they come at a great social and economic cost [3][4][5][6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A few respondents still noted that they did not have a smartphone in the comments section (as a reason for not installing the app) -we excluded those responses from our final sample 4. For the few people who took the survey more than once, we kept their first submission 5.…”

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confidence: 99%

Acceptability of app-based contact tracing for COVID-19: Cross-country survey evidence

Altmann

Milsom

Zillessen

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background The COVID-19 pandemic is the greatest public health crisis of the last 100 years. Countries have responded with various levels of lockdown to save lives and stop health systems from being overwhelmed. At the same time, lockdowns entail large socio-economic costs. One exit strategy under consideration is a mobile phone app that traces close contacts of those infected with COVID-19. Recent research has demonstrated the theoretical effectiveness of this solution in different disease settings. However, concerns have been raised about such apps because of the potential privacy implications. This could limit the acceptability of app-based contact tracing among the general population. As the effectiveness of this approach increases strongly with app take-up, it is crucial to understand public support for this intervention. : medRxiv preprint ResultsWe found strong support for the app under both regimes, in all countries, across all sub-groups of the population, and irrespective of regional-level COVID-19 mortality rates. We investigated the main factors that may hinder or facilitate take-up and found that concerns about cyber security and privacy, together with lack of trust in government, are the main barriers to adoption.Conclusions Epidemiological evidence shows that app-based contact-tracing can suppress the spread of COVID-19 if a high enough proportion of the population uses the app and that it can still reduce the number of infections if take-up is moderate. Our findings show that the willingness to install the app is very high. The available evidence suggests that app-based contact tracing may be a viable approach to control the diffusion of COVID-19.

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“…First, and foremost, the paper is part of the literature on economic effects of the Covid-19 crisis. In particular, this paper is related to Barrot et al (2020) who study the effect of Covid-19 using a quantitative production network. Our approach differs from theirs since we focus on analytical characterizations and a different set of thought experiments.…”

Section: Related Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Other economics papers studying the effects of Covid-19 include Eichenbaum et al (2020a,b), Dingel and Neiman (2020), Mongey et al (2020), Berger et al (2020), Alvarez et al (2020), Atkeson (2020a,b), Bethune and Korinek (2020), Guerrieri et al (2020), Bigio et al (2020), Caballero and Simsek (2020), Faria-e Castro (2020), Gourinchas (2020), Jones et al (2020), Jorda et al (2020), Kaplan et al (2020), Krueger et al (2020), Jorda et al (2020), Bodenstein et al (2020), Barrot et al (2020), Barro et al (2020), Fernández-Villaverde and Jones (n.d.), Hall et al (2020), Glover et al (2020), Fornaro and Wolf (2020), Acemoglu et al (2020), Cakmakli et al (2020), andGourinchas et al (2020).…”

Section: Related Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the COVID-19 Crisis

Baqaee

Farhi

2020

SSRN Journal

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We thank Veronica De Falco, Sihwan Yang, and Stephanie Kestelman for excellent research assistance. We thank Natalie Bau for her comments. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.

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Sectoral Effects of Social Distancing

Cited by 142 publications

References 25 publications

Global Supply Chains in the Pandemic

Global Supply Chains in the Pandemic

Acceptability of app-based contact tracing for COVID-19: Cross-country survey evidence

Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the COVID-19 Crisis

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