Sect, Nation, and Identity after the Fall of Mosul: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

Abstract

What are the identity consequences of war? Do ethnic groups rally behind the nation when confronted with territorial threat? How do we explain any ethnic, or subethnic, heterogeneity in identity responses? A large literature theorizes identity as endogenous to war. However, identifying such endogenous variation is hindered by the difficulties of conducting social inquiry in conflict settings. I address this gap by exploiting a unique source of exogenous variation-the fall of Mosul to the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham-during the fieldwork for a nationally representative survey in Iraq. I find systematic differences in the identity responses of Sunni and Shi'i Iraqis. While Shi'is cleave to the nation, Sunnis mobilize behind an Arab identity. The finding for Sunnis, however, is confounded by tribal presence: in densely tribal areas Sunnis rally behind the nation. Observed patterns are explicable according to inter-and intra-ethnic differences in threat perception and availability of cross-cutting organizational forms. The findings represent rare systematic empirical evidence of the endogeneity, and subethnic heterogeneity, of identity in an increasingly prevalent form of conflict.