Seasonality of Infectious Diseases

Fisman, David N.

doi:10.1146/annurev.publhealth.28.021406.144128

Cited by 308 publications

(282 citation statements)

References 80 publications

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“…59 It is likely that people will spend more time outdoors in areas where they may encounter questing ticks in warmer and drier weather. Therefore, the association between cumulative GDD, cumulative precipitation, and the beginning of the Lyme disease season may be partially driven by the influence of weather on human behavior in a way that affects the exposure of the human population to infected I. scapularis nymphs.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteorological Influences on the Seasonality of Lyme Disease in the United States

Moore¹,

Eisen²,

Monaghan³

et al. 2014

The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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Abstract. Lyme disease (Borrelia burgdorferi infection) is the most common vector-transmitted disease in the United States. The majority of human Lyme disease (LD) cases occur in the summer months, but the timing of the peak occurrence varies geographically and from year to year. We calculated the beginning, peak, end, and duration of the main LD season in 12 highly endemic states from 1992 to 2007 and then examined the association between the timing of these seasonal variables and several meteorological variables. An earlier beginning to the LD season was positively associated with higher cumulative growing degree days through Week 20, lower cumulative precipitation, a lower saturation deficit, and proximity to the Atlantic coast. The timing of the peak and duration of the LD season were also associated with cumulative growing degree days, saturation deficit, and cumulative precipitation, but no meteorological predictors adequately explained the timing of the end of the LD season.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteorological Influences on the Seasonality of Lyme Disease in the United States

Moore¹,

Eisen²,

Monaghan³

et al. 2014

The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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“…Even small seasonal changes may create large adjustments in number of malaria incidences (Fisman 2007). Based on this, it can be expected that increased temperatures can create malaria conditions in new highland areas which until now, due to low temperatures, have been unsuitable as malaria breeding grounds.…”

Section: Element 3: Assessing the Relationship Between Climate Variabmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptation to Climate Change in Developing Countries

Mertz

Halsnæs

Olesen

et al. 2009

Environmental Management

405

167

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The paper introduces the so-called climate change approach, where vulnerability and adaptation measures are assessed in the context of general development policy objectives. The approach is based on the application of a limited set of indicators. These indicators are selected as representatives of focal development policy objectives, and a stepwise approach for addressing climate change impacts, development linkages, and the economic, social and environmental dimensions related to vulnerability and adaptation are introduced. Within this context it is illustrated using three case studies how development policy indicators in practice can be used to assess climate change impacts and adaptation measures based on three case studies, namely a road project in flood prone areas of Mozambique, rainwater harvesting in the agricultural sector in Tanzania and malaria protection in Tanzania. The conclusions of the paper confirm that climate risks can be reduced at relatively low costs, but the uncertainty is still remaining about some of the wider development impacts of implementing climate change adaptation measures.

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“…Direct linkage between the physical environment and infection risk has been recognized since the time of Hippocrates (∼400 BCE) (2,3). Such linkages (e.g., surges in diarrheal disease and vectorborne disease risk with changing weather patterns) are evident in low income countries with limited health-enhancing infrastructure (4)(5)(6).…”

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confidence: 99%

Impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation on infectious disease hospitalization risk in the United States

Fisman

Tuite

Brown

2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Although the global climate is changing at an unprecedented rate, links between weather and infectious disease have received little attention in high income countries. The “El Niño Southern Oscillation” (ENSO) occurs irregularly and is associated with changing temperature and precipitation patterns. We studied the impact of ENSO on infectious diseases in four census regions in the United States. We evaluated infectious diseases requiring hospitalization using the US National Hospital Discharge Survey (1970–2010) and five disease groupings that may undergo epidemiological shifts with changing climate: (i) vector-borne diseases, (ii) pneumonia and influenza, (iii) enteric disease, (iv) zoonotic bacterial disease, and (v) fungal disease. ENSO exposure was based on the Multivariate ENSO Index. Distributed lag models, with adjustment for seasonal oscillation and long-term trends, were used to evaluate the impact of ENSO on disease incidence over lags of up to 12 mo. ENSO was associated more with vector-borne disease [relative risk (RR) 2.96, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03–8.48] and less with enteric disease (0.73, 95% CI 0.62–0.87) in the Western region; the increase in vector-borne disease was attributable to increased risk of rickettsioses and tick-borne infectious diseases. By contrast, ENSO was associated with more enteric disease in non-Western regions (RR 1.12, 95% CI 1.02–1.15). The periodic nature of ENSO may make it a useful natural experiment for evaluation of the impact of climatic shifts on infectious disease risk. The impact of ENSO suggests that warmer temperatures and extreme variation in precipitation events influence risks of vector-borne and enteric disease in the United States.

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Seasonality of Infectious Diseases

Cited by 308 publications

References 80 publications

Meteorological Influences on the Seasonality of Lyme Disease in the United States

Meteorological Influences on the Seasonality of Lyme Disease in the United States

Adaptation to Climate Change in Developing Countries

Impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation on infectious disease hospitalization risk in the United States

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