Seasonality and selective trends in viral acute respiratory tract infections

Stewart, Patrick D. Shaw

doi:10.1016/j.mehy.2015.11.005

Cited by 61 publications

(84 citation statements)

References 82 publications

(262 reference statements)

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“…A different study on this topic has shown that during the epidemic, the risk of increased daily incidence of SARS was 18.18-fold higher in days with a lower air temperature than in days with a higher temperature, in Hong Kong [24] and other regions [25]. Shaw Stewart proposed four mechanisms that could be the main drivers of the seasonality of viral epidemics [26]. He suggested that winter temperatures are associated with increased crowding that might enhance viral transmission.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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High temperature slows coronavirus disease 2019 transmission rate: A within and among country analysis

Kotsiou

Kotsios

Lampropoulos

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background: The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global issue. The relationships between temperature and incidence, transmission, or survival of many enveloped coronaviruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) have been previously widely investigated. However, there has been a lively debate in the literature over whether higher temperatures modulate coronaviruses’ infectivity and spreading, which sets a fertile ground for research on a global scale. In this study, we aimed to investigate the relationship between day-to-day temperature variability and daily COVID-19 incidence rate, as well as the time is taken to reach the total number of 200 confirmed COVID-19 cases within the worst-hit countries by the pandemic. Methods: A within and among countries analysis of the relationship between daily fluctuations in the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases and temperature for the period starting from 31st December 2019 to 29th March 2020, was conducted. The 46 worst-hit countries by the pandemic were included in the analysis.Results: What emerges from our results is that daily new COVID-19 cases were negatively correlated with daily temperature variation. Moreover, higher temperatures were positively correlated with a longer time to reach a standard number of confirmed COVID-19 cases within countries. Notably, countries with daily average temperatures below 20°C had a faster transmission rate than countries with higher daily average temperatures. Conclusions: Our study provides further insights into the hypothesis that there is an association between temperature and rate of COVID-19 spread within a country.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…He suggested that winter temperatures are associated with increased crowding that might enhance viral transmission. Furthermore, he suggested that low temperatures can increase the stability of virions outside the body, the host susceptibility, and may activate dormant virions [26].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

High temperature slows coronavirus disease 2019 transmission rate: A within and among country analysis

Kotsiou

Kotsios

Lampropoulos

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…En un reciente estudio se sugiere que las temperaturas bajas pueden activar los viriones inactivos y, de esta forma, dar inicio al brote epidémico de RSV en la población (24). Este resultado coincide con el resultado de este trabajo en relación con la variable de temperatura mínima.…”

Section: Discussionunclassified

Predicción de la epidemia del virus respiratorio sincitial en Bogotá D.C. utilizando variables climatológicas

2016

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Introducción. El virus respiratorio sincitial es uno de los principales causantes de mortalidad de niños y adultos mayores en el mundo.Objetivo. Predecir la semana de inicio del brote del virus respiratorio sincitial en Bogotá utilizando variables climatológicas como variables de predicción.Materiales y métodos. Las fechas de inicio de la epidemias para niños menores de cinco años correspondientes al periodo 2005-2010, fueron obtenidos para la ciudad de Bogotá D.C., Colombia. Se seleccionaron las variables climatológicas utilizando la matriz de correlación y posteriormente se construyeron 1.020 modelos resultantes de combinar las distintas variables climatológicas y modelos con distintas semanas de anticipación al inicio del brote. Adicionalmente, se seleccionaron modelos utilizando datos de los periodos de seis años (2005-2010), cuatro años (2005-2008) y dos años (2009-2010). Utilizando los clasificadores de Naïve Bayes y la curva característica de operación del receptor (ROC) se logró determinar los mejores modelos y las variables climatológicas más relevantes.Resultados. Los modelos que utilizaron el periodo de 2 años (2009-2010) y los de la semana 0, fueron los que tuvieron mejores resultados con un 52% y 60% de aciertos respectivamente. La humedad mínima fue la variable que más apareció en los mejores modelos con un 62%. Los clasificadores de Naïve Bayes permitieron establecer cuáles son los mejores modelos para predecir la semana de inicio del brote.Conclusiones. Los resultados sugieren que los modelos que utilizan la humedad mínima, velocidad del viento y temperatura mínima son los que tienen el mayor potencial para ser utilizado como eficaces modelos predictivos.

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“…Muchmore et al [18] related that Parainfluenza virus types 1 and 3 could be recovered from both asymptomatic and symptomatic subjects throughout winter in an isolated station in the South Pole and concluded that the viruses could not have been introduced and were most probably due to "persistence in man". Shaw-Stewart [19] proposed that the "natural temprrature sensitivity of respiratory viruses" allows virions to become dormant and viral activation as a result of chilling.…”

Section: Herpes Simplex Virus Is Associated With What Is Termed Latenmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 and SARS-COV-2 Infection and Virulence, Hypothesis II: Elevated Temperature, Humidity and Far Infrared Irradiation will significantly lower the Viability, Infectivity and Virulence of SARS-COV-2

Tung

2020

Preprint

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SARS-COV-2 is the etiologic agent of COVID-19. There is currently no effective means of preventing infections by SARS-COV-2, except through restriction of population movement and contact. An understanding of the origin, evolution and biochemistry (molecular biology) of SARS-COV-2 is a prerequisite to its control. There is no definitive answer as to the origin of SARS-COV-2. The evolution of SARS-COV-2 can be gleaned from a comparative study of its infectivity and virulence in different populations and environments. There are few reports on the biochemistry (molecular biology) of SARS-COV-2. Analysis of the biochemistry (moleuclar biology) of SARS-COV-2 and past discoveries of viruses that infect humans revealed that SARS-COV-2 most probably emerged from its latent forms through induction by Low Temperature, Low Sunlight and Low Humidity caused by Seasonal Change and Drought. Far Infrared Radiation (FIR), an important component of Sun Light can eradicate RNA viruses. Thus, it is hypothesized that an environment of high humidity, temperature approaching 39 0 C (or higher) and Far Infrared Irradiation will significantly lower the viability and infectivity of SARS-COV-2 and enhance the recovery of individuals infected with SARS-COV-2. Increasing the temperature and humidity with constant Far Infrared Irradiation in the room in which individuals infected with SARS-COV-2 are being treated is relatively easy to implement. Protocol for irradiation with FIR which is not harmful to humans but will destroy SARS-COV-2 already exists and can be implemented relatively easy. It is also hypothesized that the process of steaming up to 70 0 C - 80 0 C in a FIR Sauna may not only reduce the viability and infectivity of SARS-COV-2 but also enhance the recovery of individuals infected with SARS-COV-2. It is further hypothesized that Individuals infected with SARS-COV-2 who have mild symptoms and Asymptomatic Carriers of SARS-COV-2 will also benefit from steaming in a FIR Sauna. These hypotheses are realtively easy to test and will take no more than two weeks to accomplish.

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Seasonality and selective trends in viral acute respiratory tract infections

Cited by 61 publications

References 82 publications

High temperature slows coronavirus disease 2019 transmission rate: A within and among country analysis

High temperature slows coronavirus disease 2019 transmission rate: A within and among country analysis

Predicción de la epidemia del virus respiratorio sincitial en Bogotá D.C. utilizando variables climatológicas

COVID-19 and SARS-COV-2 Infection and Virulence, Hypothesis II: Elevated Temperature, Humidity and Far Infrared Irradiation will significantly lower the Viability, Infectivity and Virulence of SARS-COV-2

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