Seasonal variations of seismicity and geodetic strain in the Himalaya induced by surface hydrology

Bettinelli, Pierre; Avouac, Jean Philippe; Flouzat, M.; Bollinger, Laurent; Ramillien, Guillaume; Rajaure, Sudhir; Sapkota, Soma Nath

doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2007.11.021

Cited by 229 publications

(263 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…Possibility of such yearly variations were documented for seismicity in Himalayas (see Fig. 3, Bettinelli et al, 2008); (iv) the high similarity between the AF of the original declustered sequence and 95 % confidence AF curve for the shuffles (green) indicates that the time-clustering of the seismicity is due to the shape of the probability density function of the interevent times and does not depend on their ordering, contrary to the whole sequence; (v) the appearance of the two scaling regions could be due to the drop at about 1.25 yr, indicative of the reservoir-induced seismicity.…”

Section: Allan Factor Methods and Data Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigation of the temporal fluctuations of the 1960–2010 seismicity of Caucasus

Telesca

Matcharashvili

Chélidzé

2012

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The time-clustering behaviour of the seismicity of the Caucasus spanning from 1960 to 2010 was investigated. The analysis was performed on the whole and aftershockdepleted catalogues by means of the method of Allan Factor, which permits the identification and quantification of timeclustering in point processes. The whole sequence is featured by two scaling regimes with the scaling exponent at intermediate timescales lower than that at high timescales, and a crossover that could be probably linked with aftershock time activiation. The aftershock-depleted sequence is characterized by higher time-clustering degree and the presence of a periodicity probably correlated with the cyclic earth surface load variations on regional and local scales, e.g. with snow melting in Caucasian mountains and large Enguri dam operations. The obtained results were corroborated by the application of two surrogate methods: the random shuffling and the generation of Poissonian sequences.

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Section: Allan Factor Methods and Data Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigation of the temporal fluctuations of the 1960–2010 seismicity of Caucasus

Telesca

Matcharashvili

Chélidzé

2012

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…The direct effects of erosion/sedimentation on climate through chemical weathering and carbon burial are depicted by link 8 [Hay, 1996;Volk, 1987], and the most direct effect of the landscape on erosion is the slope/ erosion relationship (link 9) [Ahnert, 1970;Burbank et al, 1996;Dietrich et al, 2003;Montgomery and Brandon, 2002;Portenga and Bierman, 2011;Roering et al, 2007]. Finally, climate affects tectonics by loading or unloading the lithosphere (link 10) [Bettinelli et al, 2008;Bollinger et al, 2010;Doser and Rodriguez, 2011;Hampel et al, 2007].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tectonics, climate, and mountain topography

et al. 2012

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[1] By regressing simple, independent variables that describe climate and tectonic processes against measures of topography and relief of 69 mountain ranges worldwide, we quantify the relative importance of these processes in shaping observed landscapes. Climate variables include latitude (as a surrogate for mean annual temperature and insolation, but most importantly for the likelihood of glaciation) and mean annual precipitation. To quantify tectonics we use shortening rates across each range. As a measure of topography, we use mean and maximum elevations and relief calculated over different length scales. We show that the combination of climate (negative correlation) and tectonics (positive correlation) explain substantial fractions (>25%, but <50%) of mean and maximum elevations of mountain ranges, but that shortening rates account for smaller portions, <25%, of the variance in most measures of topography and relief (i.e., with low correlations and large scatter). Relief is insensitive to mean annual precipitation, but does depend on latitude, especially for relief calculated over small ($1 km) length scales, which we infer to reflect the importance of glacial erosion. Larger-scale (averaged over length scales of $10 km) relief, however, correlates positively with tectonic shortening rate. Moreover, the ratio between small-scale and large-scale relief, as well as the relative relief (the relief normalized by the mean elevation of the region) varies most strongly with latitude (strong positive correlation). Therefore, the location of a mountain range on Earth with its corresponding climatic conditions, not just tectonic forcing, appears to be a key factor in determining its shape and size. In any case, the combination of tectonics and climate, as quantified here, can account for approximately half of the variance in these measures of topography. The failure of present-day shortening rates to account for more than 25% of most measures of relief raises the question: Is active tectonics overrated in attempts to account for present-day relief and exhumation rates of high terrain?

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“…The seasonal response to meters of precipitation in Japan and the Himalayas alters stress by a few kilopascals and has been shown to affect seismicity rate [Bettinelli et al, 2008;Bollinger et al, 2007;Heki, 2001;Heki, 2003]. The filling of new reservoirs with tens of meters of water can trigger seismicity not only from the immediate elastic response but also from the temporal flow of pore fluids in the crust, which may perturb stress by a few tens of kilopascals for several years after filling [e.g., Gahalaut et al, 2007;Simpson et al, 1988].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ocean loading effects on stress at near shore plate boundary fault systems

Luttrell

Sandwell

2010

J. Geophys. Res.

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[1] Changes in eustatic sea level since the Last Glacial Maximum create a differential load across coastlines globally. The resulting plate bending in response to this load alters the state of stress within the lithosphere within a half flexural wavelength of the coast. We calculate the perturbation to the total stress tensor due to ocean loading in coastal regions. Our stress calculation is fully 3-D and makes use of a semianalytic model to efficiently calculate stresses within a thick elastic plate overlying a viscoelastic or fluid half-space. The 3-D stress perturbation is resolved into normal and shear stresses on plate boundary fault planes of known orientation so that Coulomb stress perturbations can be calculated. In the absence of complete paleoseismic indicators that span the time since the Last Glacial Maximum, we investigate the possibility that the seismic cycle of coastal plate boundary faults was affected by stress perturbations due to the change in sea level. Coulomb stress on onshore transform faults, such as the San Andreas and Alpine faults, is increased by up to 1-1.5 MPa, respectively, promoting failure primarily through a reduction in normal stress. These stress perturbations may perceptibly alter the seismic cycle of major plate boundary faults, but such effects are more likely to be observed on nearby secondary faults with a lower tectonic stress accumulation rate. In the specific instance of rapid sea level rise at the Black Sea, the seismic cycle of the nearby North Anatolian fault was likely significantly advanced.

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Seasonal variations of seismicity and geodetic strain in the Himalaya induced by surface hydrology

Cited by 229 publications

References 46 publications

Investigation of the temporal fluctuations of the 1960–2010 seismicity of Caucasus

Investigation of the temporal fluctuations of the 1960–2010 seismicity of Caucasus

Tectonics, climate, and mountain topography

Ocean loading effects on stress at near shore plate boundary fault systems

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