Seasonal trends in Romanian streamflow

Abstract. There is growing concern that flooding is becoming more frequent and severe in Europe. A better understanding of flood regime changes and their drivers is therefore needed. The paper reviews the current knowledge on flood regime changes in European rivers that has traditionally been obtained through two alternative research approaches. The first approach is the data-based detection of changes in observed flood events. Current methods are reviewed together with their challenges and opportunities. For example, observation biases, the merging of different data sources and accounting for nonlinear drivers and responses. The second approach consists of modelled scenarios of future floods. Challenges and opportunities associated with flood change scenarios are discussed such as fully accounting for uncertainties in the modelling cascade and feedbacks. To make progress in flood change research, we suggest that a synthesis of these two approaches is needed. This can be achieved by focusing on long duration records and flood-rich and flood-poor periods rather than on short duration flood trends only, by formally attributing causes of observed flood changes, by validating scenarios against observed flood regime dynamics, and by developing low-dimensional models of flood changes and feedbacks. The paper finishes with a call for a joint European flood change research network.

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“…Decreases in high flows were also found in Romania for the periods 1961and 1975(Birsan et al, 2014, and other eastern European countries .…”

Section: (Ii) Central Europe and Eastern Europementioning

confidence: 65%

Understanding flood regime changes in Europe: a state-of-the-art assessment

Hall

Arheimer

Borga

et al. 2014

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

464

327

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“…Trend analysis helps to identify the presence of a trend in a hydrologic time-series at different temporal and spatial scales (Lettenmaier et al, 1994;Douglas et al, 2000;Burn and Hag Elnur, 2002;Yue et al, 2003;Birsan et al, 2005Birsan et al, , 2012Hamed, 2008). The most common statistical technique is the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test (Mann, 1945;Kendall, 1975), which is used to identify the existence of monotonic trends in a time-series.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drivers of drying on the Yongding River in Beijing

Jiang

Wong

et al. 2014

Journal of Hydrology

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s u m m a r yIn recent decades, the Yongding River in Beijing has ceased to flow due to the impact of climate and anthropogenic factors, which has led to severe environmental degradation. The Beijing government is constructing new freshwater ecosystems on the Yongding River to improve environmental conditions for ecosystem services. Clarification is needed on the influence of precipitation and anthropogenic factors on streamflow decline in Beijing. A hydrological time-series analysis was conducted on recorded streamflow at Guanting Reservoir, Yanchi, and Sanjiadian to estimate the influence of precipitation variability on the drying of the Yongding River in Beijing. From 1980 to 2010, the mean annual rates of streamflow decline were 0.44 m 3 s À1 yr À1 (Guanting), 0.42 m 3 s À1 yr À1 (Yanchi), and 0.03 m 3 s À1 yr À1 (Sanjiadian). The most probable abrupt change-point for annual streamflow was 1999 at Guanting Reservoir and Yanchi, and was 2000 at Sanjiadian. Between the pre-change (1980)(1981)(1982)(1983)(1984)(1985)(1986)(1987)(1988)(1989)(1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999) and post-change (2000-2010) periods, mean annual streamflow decreased by 68.56% (Guanting), 66.92% (Yanchi), and 96.78% (Sanjiadian). A multiple regression analysis using annual precipitation and streamflow at Guanting, Yanchi, and Sanjiadian showed an insignificant relationship between local precipitation and streamflow in both periods. Next we assessed the potential impact of upstream human activities on downstream flow using: (1) correlation statistics between upstream flow and downstream flow, (2) water abstracted above Sanjiadian, and (3) upstream socioeconomic data. The results suggest upstream human activities are important drivers on downstream flow decline, which could possibly explain the weak relationship between precipitation and streamflow. Further analysis is needed to clarify the influence of upstream water consumption on Guanting Reservoir to advise management on the new freshwater ecosystems along the Yongding River.

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“…The majority of floods in Romania are influenced by climate factors, manifesting at local and European levels (Andrei et al, 2011;Birsan, 2015;Birsan and Dumitrescu, 2014;Birsan et al, 2012;Chendes et al, 2015;Corduneanu et al, 2016). During the last decade of June (20 June 2010) and the end of July (30 July 2010), a baroclinic area was localized in northern Moldavia.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exceptional floods in the Prut basin, Romania, in the context of heavy rains in the summer of 2010

Romanescu

Stoleriu

2017

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The year 2010 was characterized by devastating flooding in central and eastern Europe, including Romania, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Bosnia-Herzegovina. This study focuses on floods that occurred during the summer of 2010 in the Prut River basin, which has a high percentage of hydrotechnical infrastructure. Strong floods occurred in eastern Romania on the Prut River, which borders the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine, and the Siret River. Atmospheric instability from 21 June to 1 July 2010 caused remarkable amounts of rain, with rates of 51.2 mm/50 min and 42.0 mm/30 min. In the middle Prut basin, there are numerous ponds that help mitigate floods as well as provide water for animals, irrigation, and so forth. The peak discharge of the Prut River during the summer of 2010 was 2310 m 3 s −1 at the Rȃdȃuţi-Prut gauging station. High discharges were also recorded on downstream tributaries, including the Baseu, Jijia, and Miletin. High discharges downstream occurred because of water from the middle basin and the backwater from the Danube (a historic discharge of 16 300 m 3 s −1 ). The floods that occurred in the Prut basin in the summer of 2010 could not be controlled completely because the discharges far exceeded foreseen values.

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Seasonal trends in Romanian streamflow

Cited by 71 publications

References 56 publications

Understanding flood regime changes in Europe: a state-of-the-art assessment

Understanding flood regime changes in Europe: a state-of-the-art assessment

Drivers of drying on the Yongding River in Beijing

Exceptional floods in the Prut basin, Romania, in the context of heavy rains in the summer of 2010

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