Seasonal trend analysis of published ground‐based and TOMS total ozone data through 1991

Reinsel, Gregory C.; Tiao, George C.; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kerr, J. B.; Miller, A. J.; Nagatani, R. M.; Bishop, Lane; Ying, Lei

doi:10.1029/93jd03517

Cited by 76 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…where 1 and 2 are the model coefficients and e t represents the independent random errors with zero mean and variances that are allowed to change from month to month (see Reinsel et al, 1994). The basis functions used represent the QBO, specified as monthly mean 50 hPa Singapore zonal wind and a synthetic basis function orthogonal to this to allow for a time lag at different latitudes and altitudes; ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), using the monthly mean Southern Oscillation index as proxy; the solar cycle, based on monthly mean F10.7 solar flux data from NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center; and a proxy for ozone perturbations forced by aerosols from the Mt Pinatubo volcanic eruption based on a synthetic time series representing the approximate temporal evolution of stratospheric aerosol concentrations following the eruption (see Bodeker et al, 1998 for further details).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past changes in the vertical distribution of ozone – Part 3: Analysis and interpretation of trends

Harris

Haßler²,

Tummon³

et al. 2015

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

119

156

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Abstract. Trends in the vertical distribution of ozone are reported and compared for a number of new and recently revised data sets. The amount of ozone-depleting compounds in the stratosphere (as measured by equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine – EESC) was maximised in the second half of the 1990s. We examine the periods before and after the peak to see if any change in trend is discernible in the ozone record that might be attributable to a change in the EESC trend, though no attribution is attempted. Prior to 1998, trends in the upper stratosphere (~ 45 km, 4 hPa) are found to be −5 to −10 % per decade at mid-latitudes and closer to −5 % per decade in the tropics. No trends are found in the mid-stratosphere (28 km, 30 hPa). Negative trends are seen in the lower stratosphere at mid-latitudes in both hemispheres and in the deep tropics. However, it is hard to be categorical about the trends in the lower stratosphere for three reasons: (i) there are fewer measurements, (ii) the data quality is poorer, and (iii) the measurements in the 1990s are perturbed by aerosols from the Mt Pinatubo eruption in 1991. These findings are similar to those reported previously even though the measurements for the main satellite and ground-based records have been revised. There is no sign of a continued negative trend in the upper stratosphere since 1998: instead there is a hint of an average positive trend of ~ 2 % per decade in mid-latitudes and ~ 3 % per decade in the tropics. The significance of these upward trends is investigated using different assumptions of the independence of the trend estimates found from different data sets. The averaged upward trends are significant if the trends derived from various data sets are assumed to be independent (as in Pawson et al., 2014) but are generally not significant if the trends are not independent. This occurs because many of the underlying measurement records are used in more than one merged data set. At this point it is not possible to say which assumption is best. Including an estimate of the drift of the overall ozone observing system decreases the significance of the trends. The significance will become clearer as (i) more years are added to the observational record, (ii) further improvements are made to the historic ozone record (e.g. through algorithm development), and (iii) the data merging techniques are refined, particularly through a more rigorous treatment of uncertainties.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past changes in the vertical distribution of ozone – Part 3: Analysis and interpretation of trends

Harris

Haßler²,

Tummon³

et al. 2015

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

119

156

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Since 1990, several studies have focused on the interannual variability of ozone in connection with the seasonal cycle, quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), solar flux and aerosol optical thickness (Bojkov et al, 1990;Reinsel et al, 1994;Staehelin et al, 1998). In the recent decade the dynamical variations using heat flux, a proxy describing the planetary wave drive, are discussed to investigate changes in ozone distributions related to the residual circulation (Dhomse et al, 2006;Weber et al, 2011).…”

Section: P J Nair Et Al: Ozone Trends At a Northern Mid-latitude Smentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The long-term evolution of monthly mean ozone is analysed using a regression model, which is similar to those of Reinsel et al (1994), Staehelin et al (1998) and Kuttippurath et al (2013). Our analysis adopts two different methodologies to assess the trend.…”

Section: Multiple Regression Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ozone trends derived from the total column and vertical profiles at a northern mid-latitude station

et al. 2013

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Abstract. The trends and variability of ozone are assessed over a northern mid-latitude station, Haute-Provence Observatory (OHP: 43.93 • N, 5.71 • E), using total column ozone observations from the Dobson and Système d'Analyse par Observation Zénithale spectrometers, and stratospheric ozone profile measurements from light detection and ranging (lidar), ozonesondes, Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II, Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). A multivariate regression model with quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), solar flux, aerosol optical thickness, heat flux, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and a piecewise linear trend (PWLT) or equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) functions is applied to the ozone anomalies. The maximum variability of ozone in winter/spring is explained by QBO and heat flux in the ranges 15-45 km and 15-24 km, respectively. The NAO shows maximum influence in the lower stratosphere during winter, while the solar flux influence is largest in the lower and middle stratosphere in summer. The total column ozone trends estimated from the PWLT and EESC functions are of −1.47 ± 0.27 and −1.40 ± 0.25 DU yr −1 , respectively, over the period 1984-1996 and about 0.55 ± 0.30 and 0.42 ± 0.08 DU yr −1 , respectively, over the period 1997-2010. The ozone profiles yield similar and significant EESCbased and PWLT trends for [1984][1985][1986][1987][1988][1989][1990][1991][1992][1993][1994][1995][1996], and are about −0.5 and −0.8 % yr −1 in the lower and upper stratosphere, respectively. For 1997-2010, the EESC-based and PWLT estimates are of the order of 0.3 and 0.1 % yr −1 , respectively, in the 18-28 km range, and at 40-45 km, EESC provides significant ozone trends larger than the insignificant PWLT results. Furthermore, very similar vertical trends for the respective time periods are also deduced from another long-term satellitebased data set (GOZCARDS-Global OZone Chemistry And Related trace gas Data records for the Stratosphere) sampled at northern mid-latitudes. Therefore, this analysis unveils ozone recovery signals from total column ozone and profile measurements at OHP, and hence in the northern midlatitudes.

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“…where 1 and 2 are the model coefficients and e t represents the independent random errors with zero mean and variances that are allowed to change from month to month (see Reinsel et al, 1994). Piecewise linear regression is chosen for the analysis because a central point of interest is whether there is any evidence for a change in the ozone trend after the peak in EESC (Jones et al, 2009;Steinbrecht et al, 2006;Newchurch et al, 2003).…”

Section: Multiple Linear Regression Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intercomparison of vertically resolved merged satellite ozone data sets: interannual variability and long-term trends

et al. 2015

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Seasonal trend analysis of published ground‐based and TOMS total ozone data through 1991

Cited by 76 publications

References 16 publications

Past changes in the vertical distribution of ozone – Part 3: Analysis and interpretation of trends

Past changes in the vertical distribution of ozone – Part 3: Analysis and interpretation of trends

Ozone trends derived from the total column and vertical profiles at a northern mid-latitude station

Intercomparison of vertically resolved merged satellite ozone data sets: interannual variability and long-term trends

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