Seasonal thermal regime and climatic trends in lakes of the Tibetan highlands

Kirillin, Georgiy; Wen, Li; Shatwell, Tom

doi:10.5194/hess-21-1895-2017

Cited by 43 publications

(58 citation statements)

References 59 publications

(73 reference statements)

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“…FLake was forced with an ensemble of continuous 21st century climate projections from the Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment for Europe (EURO-CORDEX; Kotlarski et al, 2014). The climate projections were based on an intermediate greenhouse gas concentration trajectory (RCP4.5), representing a moderate climate warming scenario with an end-of-century, top-of-the-atmosphere radiative forcing of 4.5 W m −2 compared to the pre-industrial period (IPCC, 2014).…”

Section: Climate Warming Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future projections of temperature and mixing regime of European temperate lakes

Shatwell

Thiery

Kirillin

2019

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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The physical response of lakes to climate warming is regionally variable and highly dependent on individual lake characteristics, making generalizations about their development difficult. To qualify the role of individual lake characteristics in their response to regionally homogeneous warming, we simulated temperature, ice cover, and mixing in four intensively studied German lakes of varying morphology and mixing regime with a one-dimensional lake model. We forced the model with an ensemble of 12 climate projections (RCP4.5) up to 2100. The lakes were projected to warm at 0.10-0.11 • C decade −1 , which is 75 %-90 % of the projected air temperature trend. In simulations, surface temperatures increased strongly in winter and spring, but little or not at all in summer and autumn. Mean bottom temperatures were projected to increase in all lakes, with steeper trends in winter and in shallower lakes. Modelled ice thaw and summer stratification advanced by 1.5-2.2 and 1.4-1.8 days decade −1 respectively, whereas autumn turnover and winter freeze timing was less sensitive. The projected summer mixed-layer depth was unaffected by warming but sensitive to changes in water transparency. By midcentury, the frequency of ice and stratification-free winters was projected to increase by about 20 %, making ice cover rare and shifting the two deeper dimictic lakes to a predominantly monomictic regime. The polymictic lake was unlikely to become dimictic by the end of the century. A sensi-tivity analysis predicted that decreasing transparency would dampen the effect of warming on mean temperature but amplify its effect on stratification. However, this interaction was only predicted to occur in clear lakes, and not in the study lakes at their historical transparency. Not only lake morphology, but also mixing regime determines how heat is stored and ultimately how lakes respond to climate warming. Seasonal differences in climate warming rates are thus important and require more attention. Recent studies highlighted that lakes respond quite individually to climate change. Although surface water temperature (T s ) is perhaps the most predictable indicator of warming , trends in T s remain highly variable at a global scale (O'Reilly et al., 2015). Deep water temperatures respond less predictably to warming and have been Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.

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Section: Climate Warming Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future projections of temperature and mixing regime of European temperate lakes

Shatwell

Thiery

Kirillin

2019

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Although surface water temperature (T s ) is perhaps the most predictable indicator of warming (Adrian et al, 2009), trends in T s remain globally highly variable (O'Reilly et al, 2015). Deep water temperatures respond less predictably to warming and have been observed to increase, decrease or not change with increasing air temperature (Dokulil et al, 2006;Ficker et al, 2017;Kirillin et al, 2013;Kirillin et al, 2017;Richardson et al, 2017;Winslow et al, 2017). Stratification strength and duration generally increase due to warming (Butcher et al, 2015;Kirillin, 2010), but patterns of change may have little regional coherence and cannot be reliably inferred from surface water trends (Read et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future projections of temperature and mixing regime of European temperate lakes

Shatwell¹,

Thiery²,

Kirillin³

2018

Preprint

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Abstract. The physical response of lakes to climate warming is regionally variable and highly dependent on individual lake characteristics, making generalisations about their development difficult. To qualify the role of individual lake characteristics in their response to regionally homogeneous warming, we simulated temperature, ice cover and mixing in four intensively studied German lakes of varying morphology and mixing regime with a one-dimensional lake model. We forced the model with an ensemble of 12 climate projections (RCP4.5) up to 2100. The lakes were projected to warm at 0.10–0.11 °C decade−1, which is 75–90 % of the projected air temperature trend. In simulations, surface temperatures increased strongly in winter and spring, but little or not at all in summer and autumn. Mean bottom temperatures were projected to increase in all lakes, with steeper trends in winter and in shallower lakes. Modelled ice thaw and summer stratification advanced by 1.5–2.2 and 1.4–1.8 d decade−1 respectively, whereas autumn turnover and winter freeze timing was less sensitive. The projected summer mixed layer depth was unaffected by warming but sensitive to changes in water transparency. By mid-century, the frequency of ice and stratification-free winters was projected to increase by about 20 %, making ice cover rare and shifting the two deeper dimictic lakes to a predominantly monomictic regime. The polymictic lake was unlikely to become dimictic by the end of the century. A sensitivity analysis predicted that decreasing transparency would dampen the effect of warming on mean temperature but amplify its effect on stratification. However, this interaction was only predicted to occur in clear lakes, and not in the study lakes at their historical transparency. Not only lake morphology, but also mixing regime determines how heat is stored and ultimately how lakes respond to climate warming. Seasonal differences in climate warming rates are thus important and require more attention.

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“…The present modeling experiments indicated that the largest uncertainty for QTP lake ice modeling is the effect of F w . Thermokarst lakes on the QTP are typically shallow and small, without significant surface water input and output, implying that through-lake current or lake-wide circulation under the ice cover are negligible (Kirillin et al, 2015). A cold sediment layer limits the heat release into the overlying water (Lin et al, 2011).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the thermal regimes of lakes in the QTP and their impacts on the atmosphere boundary layer and surrounding permafrost during wintertime (ice-covered season) remain unclear. Because of sparse field observations, there is an increasing need for models and parameterizations to better understand the lake-air interaction and lake thermal regime (Kirillin et al, 2017;Wang et al, 2015;Wen et al, 2015).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling experiments on seasonal lake ice mass and energy balance in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau: a case study

Huang

Cheng

Zhang

et al. 2019

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The lake-rich Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) has significant impacts on regional and global water cycles and monsoon systems through heat and water vapor exchange. The lake–atmosphere interactions have been quantified over open-water periods, yet little is known about the lake ice thermodynamics and heat and mass balance during the ice-covered season due to a lack of field data. In this study, a high-resolution thermodynamic ice model was applied in experiments of lake ice evolution and energy balance of a shallow lake in the QTP. Basal growth and melt dominated the seasonal evolution of lake ice, but surface sublimation was also crucial for ice loss, accounting for up to 40 % of the maximum ice thickness. Sublimation was also responsible for 41 % of the lake water loss during the ice-covered period. Simulation results matched the observations well with respect to ice mass balance components, ice thickness, and ice temperature. Strong solar radiation, negative air temperature, low air moisture, and prevailing strong winds were the major driving forces controlling the seasonal ice mass balance. The energy balance was estimated at the ice surface and bottom, and within the ice interior and under-ice water. Particularly, almost all heat fluxes showed significant diurnal variations including incoming, absorbed, and penetrated solar radiation, long-wave radiation, turbulent air–ice heat fluxes, and basal ice–water heat fluxes. The calculated ice surface temperature indicated that the atmospheric boundary layer stratification was consistently stable or neutral throughout the ice-covered period. The turbulent air–ice heat fluxes and the net heat gain by the lake were much lower than those during the open-water period.

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Seasonal thermal regime and climatic trends in lakes of the Tibetan highlands

Cited by 43 publications

References 59 publications

Future projections of temperature and mixing regime of European temperate lakes

Future projections of temperature and mixing regime of European temperate lakes

Future projections of temperature and mixing regime of European temperate lakes

Modeling experiments on seasonal lake ice mass and energy balance in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau: a case study

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