Seasonal temperature variation influences climate suitability for dengue, chikungunya, and Zika transmission

Huber, John H.; Childs, Marissa L.; Caldwell, Jamie M.; Mordecai, Erin A.

doi:10.1101/230383

Cited by 14 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…3a). Supporting our a priori expectations based on a previous simulation study [30], we found that the climate-driven model predicted peak timing of outbreaks (R 2 = 0.71, p < 0.01; Fig. 3b) and outbreak duration (R 2 = 0.51, p < 0.01; Fig.…”

Section: Capturing Key Epidemic Characteristicssupporting

confidence: 89%

“…habitat for mosquitoes, but the relationship is complex because heavy rainfall can flush away breeding habitats [24][25][26] and water storage practices during drought can increase water availability, mosquito abundance, and contact between mosquitoes and people [27][28][29]. A previous simulation study predicted that in settings with suitable climate for transmission throughout the year (e.g., mean temperature = 25°C; range = 20 -30°C), temperature drives the timing and duration of outbreaks, but not the maximum number of infections or final epidemic size [30]. This finding suggests that a model that incorporates temperature-dependent vector traits should capture some important epidemic characteristics.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…In this work, we test the extent to which climate-driven mosquito traits drive disease dynamics across two geographically distinct regions and characterize additional climatological, ecological, and social factors that may mediate the effects of climate on disease dynamics. We build on previous mechanistic and semi-mechanistic models that incorporate the Aedes mosquito life cycle and human disease dynamics [30][31][32][33][34][35] by combining a suite of temperature, humidity, and rainfall dependent trait functions into one epidemiological model. We validate the model with Ae.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Climate predicts geographic and temporal variation in mosquito-borne disease dynamics on two continents

Caldwell

LaBeaud

Lambin

et al. 2020

Preprint

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47Climate drives population dynamics, but when the underlying mechanisms are 48 unresolved, studies can lead to seemingly contradictory effects of climate on natural 49 populations. Climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases such as dengue, chikungunya, and 50Zika are one example where climate appears to have opposing effects in different 51 contexts. In this study, we use a mathematical model to directly connect climate-driven 52 mosquito physiology measured in laboratory studies to observed vector and disease 53 dynamics in the field across ecologically and culturally distinct settings in Ecuador and 54Kenya. We show that temperature, rainfall, and humidity predict Aedes aepgyti 55 abundances and laboratory-confirmed arboviral incidence across ecologically distinct 56 settings. Further, this trait-based approach resolves seemingly contradictory results from 57 prior field studies and highlights climate conditions where mechanisms remain 58 unresolved. Using this mechanistic model, we tested several intervention strategies and 59 found that reducing immature mosquito habitat or contact rate between mosquitoes and 60 humans are more effective interventions than killing adult mosquitoes. These results can 61 help guide intervention efforts and improve climate change predictions for vector-borne 62 diseases. 63 64 Introduction: 65Climate is a major driver of species interactions and population dynamics, but the 66 mechanisms underlying these relationships are often poorly understood and rarely tested 67 in the field [1]. One of the primary ways that climate impacts populations is through its 68 effects on species' vital rates [2]. However, these mechanistic effects can lead to 69 seemingly contradictory results in the field because multiple climate variables may act 70 synergistically, with each climate variable potentially affecting multiple vital rates, and 71 their impacts may be nonlinear, changing direction and relative importance across a 72 gradient of conditions. Vector-borne diseases provide an interesting case study to test 73 whether climate sensitive traits measured in controlled, laboratory settings can reconcile 74 seemingly contradictory results from field studies. For example, mosquito-borne 75 arboviral diseases such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika are clearly climate-sensitive: a 76 body of field research has consistently identified temperature, rainfall, and humidity as 77 important predictors of disease, but sometimes with opposite conclusions about the 78 magnitude and direction of effects of climate on mosquito and disease dynamics [3][4][5][6][7][8]. 79For example, dengue incidence correlated with temperature positively in Mexico [9] but 80 negatively in Thailand [10]. We hypothesize that such opposing effects could be 81 simultaneously correct if disease dynamics are context-dependent or nonlinear, and each 82 model describes true disease dynamics but only within a small subset of conditions (e.g., 83 specific locations or seasons). 84 85 Understanding the mechanisms that drive disease dynamic...

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Section: Capturing Key Epidemic Characteristicssupporting

confidence: 89%

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confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Climate predicts geographic and temporal variation in mosquito-borne disease dynamics on two continents

Caldwell

LaBeaud

Lambin

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…In Brazil, a constellation of factors, such as favorable weather, characterized by high annual precipitation, humidity, and temperature, as well as large urban and peri‐urban population centers have been ideal settings for the maintenance of human‐mosquito‐human transmission cycles of several arboviruses, including dengue, Zika, chikungunya, yellow fever virus, and others 16 . São José do Rio Preto contemplates such characteristics and has been facing an endemic dengue circulation over the years and, currently, a COVID‐19 pandemic.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Presentation of fatal stroke due to SARS‐CoV‐2 and dengue virus coinfection

Estofolete

Machado

Zini

et al. 2020

Journal of Medical Virology

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Herein, we report a case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) and dengue coinfection, presented as a fatal stroke in our hospital, in São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo State, a Brazilian city hyperendemic for dengue viruses and other arthropod‐borne viruses (arboviruses) and currently facing a surge of SARS‐CoV‐2 cases. This case is the first described in the literature and contributes to the better understanding of clinical presentations of two important diseases in a tropical setting.

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“…Whether an infectious disease spreads within a population depends on the transmission rate of the disease and the number of susceptible individuals ( 14 , 15 ); thus, long-term forecasting models for DHF incidence may need to account for climatic factors that could affect transmission as well as population susceptibility. Climatic factors, such as temperature, rainfall, and humidity, may impact both the prevalence and the distribution of the dengue vector, the Aedes mosquito ( 16 – 18 ), as well as the transmission efficiency of dengue virus ( 1 , 19 , 20 ). During the low-dengue season, these climatic factors may be indicative of incidence in the next high-dengue season, perhaps due to their role in vector survival and larval development ( 21 ).…”

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confidence: 99%

Prospective forecasts of annual dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence in Thailand, 2010–2014

Lauer

Sakrejda

Ray

et al. 2018

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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SignificanceDengue hemorrhagic fever poses a major problem for public health officials in Thailand. The number and location of cases vary dramatically from year to year, which makes planning prevention and treatment activities before the dengue season difficult. We develop statistical models with biologically motivated covariates to make forecasts for each Thai province every year. The forecasts from our models have less error than those of a baseline model on out-of-sample data. Furthermore, the forecasts from a model based on incidence occurring before the start of the rainy season successfully order provinces by outbreak risk. These early, accurate forecasts of dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence could help public health officials determine where to allocate their resources in the future.

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Seasonal temperature variation influences climate suitability for dengue, chikungunya, and Zika transmission

Cited by 14 publications

References 41 publications

Climate predicts geographic and temporal variation in mosquito-borne disease dynamics on two continents

Climate predicts geographic and temporal variation in mosquito-borne disease dynamics on two continents

Presentation of fatal stroke due to SARS‐CoV‐2 and dengue virus coinfection

Prospective forecasts of annual dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence in Thailand, 2010–2014

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