Seasonal streamflow forecasting in South America’s largest rivers

Petry, Ingrid; Fan, Fernando Mainardi; Siqueira, Vinícius Alencar; Collishonn, Walter; Paiva, Rodrigo Cauduro Dias de; Quedi, Erik; Gama, Cléber Henrique de Araújo; Silveira, Reinaldo; Freitas, Camila S.; Paranhos, Cassia Silmara Aver

doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101487

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…Relying mainly on precipitation, the Tabu River experiences uneven distribution of rainfall, with the majority occurring in July and August, while the rest of the year experiences scarce precipitation, leading to flow interruptions in the middle and lower reaches. This is a common characteristic of seasonal rivers in arid to semi-arid regions, as supported by similar findings in other studies [46][47][48]. The assessment of the Tabu River's health reveals an overall better condition in the upstream compared to the downstream.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 86%

Construction and Application of a Seasonal River Health Evaluation System in Arid and Semi-Arid Areas

Qi,

Wang,

Yin

et al. 2024

Water

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Addressing the inadequacy of theoretical frameworks and evaluation indicators for assessing the health of seasonal rivers in arid and semi-arid regions, this study aims to enrich the theoretical foundation for the management and ecological restoration of seasonal river systems. By selecting seven indicators from three aspects: hydrology, habitat, and social services, a seasonal river health assessment indicator system was constructed for the Tabu River basin. The weights of the indicators were determined using the analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method, and a classification standard for seasonal river health was established. The health status of the Tabu River in 2021 was evaluated accordingly. The results revealed that the upstream, midstream, and downstream reaches of the Tabu River were categorized as healthy, sub-healthy, and diseased, respectively, with poor hydrological conditions being the primary concern. The satisfaction level of ecological flow within the basin was low, accompanied by deep groundwater levels and water scarcity issues, aligning with the actual situation. This indicator system effectively reflects the true state of seasonal river ecosystems. Based on the evaluation results, measures such as establishing ecological water storage projects and adjusting agricultural planting structures were proposed to alleviate the impacts caused by water scarcity. Additionally, implementing river and lake management systems, water resource protection measures, and water-saving technologies can directly regulate the pressures imposed on rivers by human socio-economic activities, thus alleviating regional water resource shortages and promoting the health of rivers and regional water resources. These findings provide scientific decision-making support for the management of seasonal river basins and the maintenance of river health.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 86%

Construction and Application of a Seasonal River Health Evaluation System in Arid and Semi-Arid Areas

Qi,

Wang,

Yin

et al. 2024

Water

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“…MGB-SA is a distinct from previous applications due to the decisions on the river-reach spatial representation level of detail adopted (drainage initiation areas thresholds of 1000km 2 and 15 km-long river segments) and that the model is the basis for a continentalscale research agenda on comparative hydrology, land use, climate change and forecasting studies (e.g. Siqueira et al 2018Siqueira et al , 2020Siqueira et al , 2021Petry et al, 2022Petry et al, , 2023Kolling et al, 2023;Fagundes et al, 2023aFagundes et al, , 2023b. Due to these particularities, it is usually referred specifically as "MGB-SA".…”

Section: Mgb-sa Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For the more recent period the quantile mapping technique was used to adjust the bias of the GPM relative to the MSWEP dataset, resulting in a continuous series of observations from 1995 to 2021. This is the same dataset used by Petry et al (2023) continental modelling setup.…”

Section: Observed Precipitation Datasetmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The forecasts showed greater statistical quality and skill, especially in plants with larger drainage areas (e.g., plants in the Paraná River basin), due to the greater inertia of the hydrological processes and less dependence on the quality of precipitation in these basins. On the other hand, basins with faster hydrological responses (e.g., plants in the Iguaçu and Uruguay River basins) show greater variability and a decline in statistical quality over the course of the forecast (Petry et al, 2022(Petry et al, , 2023.…”

Section: /18mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Siqueira et al (2018Siqueira et al ( , 2020Siqueira et al ( , 2021 developed the MGB hydrological-hydrodynamic model in its continental version (MGB-SA) and carried out experiments in medium-term forecasting (14 days). Petry et al (2023) used the MGB-SA to evaluate seasonal forecasts (7 months), with the aim of identifying the regions and rivers with the greatest long-term predictability on the continent. Sub-seasonal forecasts, which extend the medium-term and bridge the gap to the seasonal forecasts, are still lacking in South America.…”

Section: /18mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Sub-seasonal streamflow forecasts for hydropower dams in the Brazilian Eletrical Interconnected System

Quedi,

Fan,

Siqueira

et al. 2024

RBRH

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Inflow prediction on sub-seasonal timescale have the potential for important contributions to the management of water resources in hydroelectric dam operations. These forecasts challenge the limitations of the medium-term and extend it, bridging a long-standing technical-scientific gap in the forecasting field. In Brazil, the use of sub-seasonal hydrological predictions can boost the hydroelectric production of the National Interconnected System (SIN), since inflow forecast in reservoirs of up to 2 weeks are routinely used using a rain-flow model. This study aimed at the statistical evaluation of hydrological forecasts of up to 6 weeks using a hydrological-hydrodynamic model on a continental scale associated with ensemble precipitation forecasts generated by an atmospheric model, producing future streamflow in the continent basins, and consequently at the SIN’s hydroelectric dams. The statistical evaluation was based on deterministic scores typically used by the SIN operating agent, and additionally we assessed the skill of forecasts based on atmospheric models in relation to simpler forecasts based on the climatology of observed inflows. The performance of the forecasts varies according to the season and geographic location, that is, depending on different hydrological regimes. The best performances were obtained in dams located in the southwest and central-west regions, which have well-defined seasonality, while dams in the south showed greater sensitivity in metrics according to the season. The study presented serves as a technical-scientific contribution for agents and decision makers who seek to improve water resource management by incorporating extended forecasts into the operational chain.

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Water Resources and Seasonal Forecasting

Sene

2024

Hydrometeorology

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Seasonal streamflow forecasting in South America’s largest rivers

Cited by 5 publications

References 69 publications

Construction and Application of a Seasonal River Health Evaluation System in Arid and Semi-Arid Areas

Construction and Application of a Seasonal River Health Evaluation System in Arid and Semi-Arid Areas

Sub-seasonal streamflow forecasts for hydropower dams in the Brazilian Eletrical Interconnected System

Water Resources and Seasonal Forecasting

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