Seasonal soil moisture and drought occurrence in Europe in CMIP5 projections for the 21st century

Ruosteenoja, Kimmo; Markkanen, Tiina; Venäläinen, Ari; Räisänen, Petri; Peltola, Heli

doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3671-4

Cited by 172 publications

(139 citation statements)

References 46 publications

(72 reference statements)

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“…The SMI calculated from regional soil moisture simulations over the past 30 years indicated that such extreme drought affecting forest health was rare in Finland, and the summer drought in 2006 in southern Finland was the most severe one in the 30 year study period (Gao et al, 2016). According to climate scenarios, regardless of the anticipated increase in precipitation, a modest drying of soil is foreseen in northern Europe during the 21st century because of intensifying evapotranspiration (Ruosteenoja et al, 2017).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Response of water use efficiency to summer drought in a boreal Scots pine forest in Finland

et al. 2017

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Abstract. The influence of drought on plant functioning has received considerable attention in recent years, however our understanding of the response of carbon and water coupling to drought in terrestrial ecosystems still needs to be improved. A severe soil moisture drought occurred in southern Finland in the late summer of 2006. In this study, we investigated the response of water use efficiency to summer drought in a boreal Scots pine forest (Pinus sylvestris) on the daily time scale mainly using eddy covariance flux data from the Hyytiälä (southern Finland) flux site. In addition, simulation results from the JSBACH land surface model were evaluated against the observed results. Based on observed data, the ecosystem level water use efficiency (EWUE; the ratio of gross primary production, GPP, to evapotranspiration, ET) showed a decrease during the severe soil moisture drought, while the inherent water use efficiency (IWUE; a quantity defined as EWUE multiplied with mean daytime vapour pressure deficit, VPD) increased and the underlying water use efficiency (uWUE, a metric based on IWUE and a simple stomatal model, is the ratio of GPP multiplied with a square root of VPD to ET) was unchanged during the drought. The decrease in EWUE was due to the stronger decline in GPP than in ET. The increase in IWUE was because of the decreased stomatal conductance under increased VPD. The unchanged uWUE indicates that the trade-off between carbon assimilation and transpiration of the boreal Scots pine forest was not disturbed by this drought event at the site. The JS-BACH simulation showed declines of both GPP and ET under the severe soil moisture drought, but to a smaller extent compared to the observed GPP and ET. Simulated GPP and ET led to a smaller decrease in EWUE but a larger increase in IWUE because of the severe soil moisture drought in comparison to observations. As in the observations, the simulated uWUE showed no changes in the drought event. The model deficiencies exist mainly due to the lack of the limiting effect of increased VPD on stomatal conductance during the low soil moisture condition. Our study provides a deeper understanding of the coupling of carbon and water cycles in the boreal Scots pine forest ecosystem and suggests possible improvements to land surface models, which play an important role in the prediction of biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks in the climate system.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Response of water use efficiency to summer drought in a boreal Scots pine forest in Finland

et al. 2017

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“…This was not the case under severe climate warming (RCP8.5), which decreased the share of Norway 415 spruce (opposite to birch) in southern Finland compared to the current climate because growing 416 conditions became sub-optimal for Norway spruce (see Ruosteenoja et al 2017). Under a severe 417 climate warming, the predicted amount of damage was largest in southern Finland when the planting 418 of birch increased.…”

Section: Discussion and Conclusion 389mentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional risks of wind damage in boreal forests under changing management and climate projections

Ikonen

Kilpeläinen

Zubizarreta-Gerendiain

et al. 2017

Can. J. For. Res.

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We employed simulations by forest ecosystem (SIMA) and mechanistic wind damage (HWIND) models in upland boreal forests throughout Finland to study regional risks of wind damage under changing management preferences and climates (current and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) over 2010–2099. We used a critical wind speed for the uprooting of trees as a measure of vulnerability, which together with the probability of such wind speed defined a level of risk. Based on that, we also predicted the stem volume of growing stock at risk and the amount of damage. In this work, medium fertility sites were planted to one of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.), or silver birch (Betula pendula Roth) or to the tree species that was dominant before the final clear-felling. The vulnerability to wind damage, the volume of growing stock at risk, and the amount of damage all increased, increasing the most in the south when the proportion of Norway spruce (with shallow rooting) of the growing stock increased. Under a severe climate warming, the proportion of Norway spruce decreased the most in the south, opposite to that of birch. This decreased the risk of damage in autumn (when birch is leafless), unlike in summer. The low risk of damage in the north was due to the large proportion of Scots pine.

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“…This was not evident based on earlier impact studies employing climate data of the CMIP3 database. Climate change likely also increases abiotic and biotic damages (e.g., [57][58][59][60][61]), which may partially counteract the positive effects of climate change on forest growth and timber supply (e.g., [62,63]). However, we did not consider them in our study.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal and Spatial Change in Diameter Growth of Boreal Scots Pine, Norway Spruce, and Birch under Recent-Generation (CMIP5) Global Climate Model Projections for the 21st Century

Kellomäki

Strandman

Heinonen

et al. 2018

Forests

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Abstract:We investigated how climate change affects the diameter growth of boreal Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.), and silver birch (Betula pendula Roth) at varying temporal and spatial scales. We generated data with a gap-type ecosystem model for selected locations and sites throughout Finland. In simulations, we used the current climate and recent-generation (CMIP5) global climate model projections under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) forcing scenarios for the period 2010-2099. Based on this data, we developed diameter growth response functions to identify the growth responses of forests under mild (RCP2.6), moderate (RCP4.5), and severe (RCP8.5) climate change at varying temporal and spatial scales. Climate change may increase growth primarily in the north, with a clearly larger effect on birch and Scots pine than Norway spruce. In the south, the growth of Norway spruce may decrease largely under moderate and severe climate change, in contrast to that of birch. The growth of Scots pine may also decrease slightly under severe climate change. The degree of differences between tree species and regions may increase along with the severity of climate change. Appropriate site-specific use of tree species may sustain forest productivity under climate change. Growth response functions, like we developed, provide novel means to take account of climate change in empirical growth and yield models, which as such include no climate change for forest calculations.

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Seasonal soil moisture and drought occurrence in Europe in CMIP5 projections for the 21st century

Cited by 172 publications

References 46 publications

Response of water use efficiency to summer drought in a boreal Scots pine forest in Finland

Response of water use efficiency to summer drought in a boreal Scots pine forest in Finland

Regional risks of wind damage in boreal forests under changing management and climate projections

Temporal and Spatial Change in Diameter Growth of Boreal Scots Pine, Norway Spruce, and Birch under Recent-Generation (CMIP5) Global Climate Model Projections for the 21st Century

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