Seasonal prediction of extreme precipitation events and frequency of  rainy days over Costa Rica, Central America, using Canonical Correlation Analysis

Maldonado, Tito; Alfaro, Eric J.; Fallas-López, Bernie; Alvarado, Luis

doi:10.5194/adgeo-33-41-2013

Cited by 58 publications

(89 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…3d). It has been found in other studies that an index consisting of calculating the difference between the standardized values of ENSO indexes and TNA is a better predictor of precipitation in the region (Maldonado and Alfaro 2011;Maldonado et al 2013;Enfield and Alfaro 1999). In fact, the ENSO index Niño3.4 is highly correlated with P in most of the region (Fig.…”

Section: Correlations Of Tavg and P Datasets With Climatic Indicesmentioning

confidence: 81%

“…Even with no significant changes in precipitation, warming trends in the region can still have severe consequences in the hydrology of the region, as increases in evapotranspiration can produce significant reductions in runoff and water availability (Hidalgo et al 2013). The contrast in SST between the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean as a good indicator of precipitation in most of the Central American region was suggested by Maldonado and Alfaro (2011);Maldonado et al (2013) and Enfield and Alfaro (1999) who attributed the correlations between SSTs and P to the strengthening or weakening of the trade winds. The strength of the rainfall response appears to depend on how SSTa in the tropical Atlantic and eastern Pacific combine.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…In addition, the annual results found here suggest the possibility of producing higher-resolution seasonal forecasts that are based on these large-scale climate precursors (e.g. Alfaro 2007aAlfaro , 2007bMaldonado and Alfaro 2011;Maldonado et al 2013;Alfaro 2014;Fallas-López and Alfaro 2014) or to use the P and Tavg datasets to produce hydrological indexes to improve forecasts by including the hydrological Bmemory^of the land surface, with direct applications to the Regional Climate Outlook Forums in Central America (Donoso and Ramirez 2001;García-Solera and Ramírez 2012). The high-resolution Tavg dataset allowed a better characterization of the spatial patterns of annual trends in the region, and point to a widespread warming of Central America, with the exception of a few smaller areas that actually experienced cooling.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…The use of the information of the contrast between Pacific and Caribbean SSTa to predict seasonal precipitation has been studied before (e.g. Maldonado et al 2013;Alfaro 2007b), but there are almost no studies linking temperature with this contrast (e.g. Alfaro 2007a; Alfaro 2000; Fallas-Lopéz and Alfaro 2014).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The AMO (Enfield et al 2001), which represents the smoothed SST variations in the North Atlantic, was also obtained from ESRL-PSD-NOAA. Alternatively, we included two composed indexes constructed using the difference and summation of the ENSO and TNA standardized index, as these indexes are known to be correlated with P and Tavg respectively in large parts of the region (Maldonado and Alfaro 2011;Maldonado et al 2013;Enfield and Alfaro 1999).…”

Section: Climate Variability Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

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Observed (1970–1999) climate variability in Central America using a high-resolution meteorological dataset with implication to climate change studies

2016

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High spatial resolution of precipitation (P) and average air temperature (Tavg) datasets are ideal for determining the spatial patterns associated with large-scale atmospheric and oceanic indexes, and climate change and variability studies, however such datasets are not usually available. Those datasets are particularly important for Central America because they allow the conception of climate variability and climate change studies in a region of high climatic heterogeneity and at the same time aid the decisionmaking process at the local scale (municipalities and districts). Tavg data from stations and complementary gridded datasets at 50 km resolution were used to generate a high-resolution (5 km grid) dataset for Central America from 1970 to 1999. A highresolution P dataset was used along with the new Tavg dataset to study climate variability and a climate change application. Consistently with other studies, it was found that the 1970-1999 trends in P are generally non-significant, with the exception of a few small locations. In the case of Tavg, there were significant warming trends in most of Central America, and cooling trends in Honduras and northern Panama. When the sea surface temperature anomalies between the Tropical Pacific and the Tropical Atlantic have different (same) sign, they are a good indicator of the sign of P (Tavg) annual anomalies. Even with non-significant trends in precipitation, the significant warming trends in Tavg in most of Central America can have severe consequences in the hydrology and water availability of the region, as the warming would bring increases in evapotranspiration, drier soils and higher aridity.

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Section: Correlations Of Tavg and P Datasets With Climatic Indicesmentioning

confidence: 81%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate Variability Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Observed (1970–1999) climate variability in Central America using a high-resolution meteorological dataset with implication to climate change studies

2016

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Groundwater recharge mechanisms inferred from isoscapes in a complex tropical mountainous region

Sánchez‐Murillo

Birkel

2016

Geophysical Research Letters

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Stable isotope variations and groundwater recharge mechanisms remain poorly understood across the tropics, particularly in Central America. Here stable isotopes (δ18O and δ2H) in groundwater, surface water, and rainfall are used to produce high‐resolution (100 m2 grid) isoscapes for Costa Rica, from which an isotope ratio of precipitation to groundwater (P/GW) is estimated to elucidate the dominant groundwater recharge processes. Spatially, groundwater and surface water isotope ratios depict the strong orographic separation into the Caribbean and Pacific slopes induced by moisture transport directly from the Caribbean Sea and the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. P/GW isotope ratios reveal that groundwater recharge is biased toward intensive and more depleted monthly rainfall across the Pacific slope with clear evidence of secondary evaporation indicating slower soil matrix recharge processes. On the other hand, P/GW isotope ratios indicate a weak influence of secondary evaporation across the Caribbean slope suggesting rapid recharge via preferential flow paths.

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Hydroclimatic and ecohydrological resistance/resilience conditions across tropical biomes of Costa Rica

et al. 2017

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Water resources management in the tropics is challenged by climate variability and unregulated land use change and their impacts on the complex interactions between vegetation, soil, and atmosphere. This study focuses on the analysis of hydroclimatic and ecohydrological conditions across 6 major biomes in Costa Rica. Using the Budyko and the Tomer–Schilling frameworks, 31 reanalysis data points located across the Caribbean and Pacific domains were classified according to their ecohydrological resistance and resilience between 1989 and 2005. Observed data were used to evaluate the reanalysis products. Resistance was defined as the standard deviation in the water excess (Q/P), whereas resilience was defined as the standard deviation of the energy (AET/PET) to the water excess. A strong orographic separation was obtained between the water‐limited Pacific slope and the energy‐limited Caribbean slope. The Caribbean slope is characterized by low resistance and high resilience to changes in the hydroclimatic conditions, with small relative changes in water excess (−18% to 2.0%), whereas the Northern Pacific slope has high resistance and low resilience and exhibited strong changes in water excess (−34% to 0%). Some regions of the Northern Pacific region covered by lower and premontane forests have recently suffered significant increments in the dryness index (PET/P). This study demonstrates the need for national–regional strategies to effectively optimize water use efficiency and water storage and to include a climate vulnerability component in future water management plans.

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Seasonal prediction of extreme precipitation events and frequency of rainy days over Costa Rica, Central America, using Canonical Correlation Analysis

Cited by 58 publications

References 25 publications

Observed (1970–1999) climate variability in Central America using a high-resolution meteorological dataset with implication to climate change studies

Observed (1970–1999) climate variability in Central America using a high-resolution meteorological dataset with implication to climate change studies

Groundwater recharge mechanisms inferred from isoscapes in a complex tropical mountainous region

Hydroclimatic and ecohydrological resistance/resilience conditions across tropical biomes of Costa Rica

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