Seasonal forecasts of discharge in the Upper Danube upstream of Vienna

Abstract

<p>In the last years, the demand of reliable seasonal streamflow forecasts has increased with the aim of incorporating them into decision support systems for e.g. river navigation, power plant operation  or drought risk management. Recently, the concept of “climate services” has gained stronger attention in Europe, thereby incorporating useful information derived from climate predictions and projections that support adaptation, mitigation and disaster risk management. In the frame of one of these climate services currently in development, Clim2Power project, a seasonal forecast system for discharge in the Upper Danube upstream Vienna has been established.</p><p>Seasonal forecasts are generated using a dynamical approach running a hydrological model (COSERO) with forecasted climate input provided by DWD (Germany's National Meterological Service). The climate forecasts are based on a large ensemble of predictions, available up to 6 months. After the application of a statistical downscaling method, the climate forecasts have a spatial resolution of 6km. The predictability is related to two main contributions: meteorological forcings (i.e. temperature and precipitation predictability) and initial basin states at the time the forecast is issued.</p><p>The Upper Danube basin with a catchment area of approx. 100.000 km<sup>2</sup> is characterized by complex topography dominated by the Alps, elevations range from about 150 m to slightly under 4000 m. Therefore, the skill of the seasonal forecast is highly influenced by the resolution of the meteorological data, and likewise by the hydrological processes that take place, especially, regarding melting processes. Downscaled hindcasts over the last 20 years, generated with the identical setup as the seasonal forecasts, are used in this contribution to assess the skill of the seasonal forecasts. In addition, some post-processing corrections, based on historical observations, are used to adjust the bias of the forecasts. Nevertheless, remaining non-systematic error patterns do not allow complete bias correction. Apart from the biases, also the correlation patterns show a limited skill. We conclude that the seasonal discharge forecasting is still not sufficient to incorporate the results into water resources decision support systems within the studied Alpine basins.</p>